First Riviera ROFR

[Brian Noble]

Hard to say. This was a "major life transition" gift to myself, so it was fine if it wasn't the most fiscally responsible. But it would have taken a lot more work to talk myself into a developer purchase. And, if RIV was not restricted, I suspect the resale vs. developer delta would be smaller, so maybe it would not have been too difficult after all, becuase this also meant a Blue Card.

 

[Mouseforward]

Good point! Do you think you would’ve bought direct RIV if DVC were still under the same terms as 2015? Or more likely bought resale, since they were still all tradable with perks (exc. Disney Collection)?

DVD needs to sell direct points to make money. Without reasons to choose direct over resale I think they wouldn’t sell as many points this year or in the next 5 or 10+ years if they had not made these changes.

Pre-2015 I would’ve bought resale, the question is if Riviera was unrestricted would I care about benefits? Since I’m mostly go solo, probably not.

But since I missed out, I wanna stay at Riviera.
I’m going to pay the same maintenance fees resale or direct so I bought the direct product that gives me more flexibility.

 

[atthebeachclub]

While it is fun to argue about how much resale prices will rise or fall at RIV compared to other resorts, I think it misses a big point. That point is that resale prices are going to fall at all resorts and maybe pretty dramatically. What makes resale attractive is the savings versus a cash stay at a regular Disney deluxe resort over time. For the current prices to remain sustainable it requires the cash rates at Disney deluxe resorts to be able to keep increasing at the incredible rate they have in the post pandemic world. If you look at what is happening hotel occupancy rates and prices over the last six months around the world, those kind of increases in cash rates are proving to be unsustainable. If you think Disney won't be impacted by the kind of problems we are seeing develop in places like Vegas, I think you are being overly optimistic.

I am not saying we are headed into a recession or anything like that. I just think we are seeing a growing backlash to the dramatic increases in the cost of vacations far outpacing even the sky high inflation rates. Now that people don't feel the need for revenge travel, they are becoming ever increasingly price sensitive when it comes to vacation spending.

I agree with you here very much.

 

[PolyRob]

In 2016 DVC removed membership perks from resale. In 2019 DVC added resort restrictions to resale when sales opened at RIV. Neither of these impact a Direct buyer using their contract. They get the perks and are not blocked from trading into any resorts.

DVC set out to differentiate direct from resale. The very first move was back in 2011, removing new resale’s ability to trade points into the Disney Collection. It was a smart move using something few people cared about. Gently it acclimated the DVC community to the idea that certain things do not legally need to be included with resale. The big punch came 5 years later, when membership extras were taken from new resale. Even then, it was done gently because they allowed as little as 25pts direct to qualify for perks. Slowly they raised that minimum direct purchase, and 3 years later when RIV was the first restricted resort that minimum was 100pts. In 2021 it was raised to 150pts.

Another change from the high RIV sales in late 2019/early 2020 is the competition for RIV from DVC direct. There were no other WDW resorts in active sale besides RIV. Sold out resorts were also a little harder to get direct. VGF was only available via waitlist. VGC was not being sold at all. DVC couldn't even change the UY on reacquired points until April 2019.

DVC seems perfectly fine having three different WDW resorts in active sales at the same time as one DL resort and Aulani. I've been following DVC since VGF was in active sales and it was really only one WDW resort at a time. Declare one sold out, then put promotions on the new one and push that.

Imagine if PVB IT and CFW weren't an option? I would imagine a bunch of those new buyers would buy RIV since it was the only direct resort with decent incentives. New members would purchase with the hopes of booking other accommodations like AKV value studios and whatever else the guides tell them.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Another change from the high RIV sales in late 2019/early 2020 is the competition for RIV from DVC direct. There were no other WDW resorts in active sale besides RIV.

Not true, Copper Creek didn’t sell out until late spring 2021 so it was in active sales for a while with RIV. It also had a better point chart, a prettier lobby, proximity to MK, and lower dues. RIV still had remarkable numbers.

 

[PolyRob]

Not true, Copper Creek didn’t sell out until late spring 2021 so it was in active sales for a while with RIV. It also had a better point chart, a prettier lobby, proximity to MK, and lower dues. RIV still had remarkable numbers.

This is incorrect about CCV. The "sold out" price increased in 2021.

Copper Creek reached "sold out" status in June 2019 and the base price increased. You could still buy it, but it wasn't considered to be in "active sales."

https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...4414-sold-out-price-revealed-for-copper-creek

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/news-34867/4519-direct-sales-report-for-june-2019

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

This is incorrect about CCV. The "sold out" price increased in 2021.

Copper Creek reached "sold out" status in June 2019 and the promotional incentives stopped. You could still buy it, but it wasn't in "active sales."

https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...4414-sold-out-price-revealed-for-copper-creek

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/news-34867/4519-direct-sales-report-for-june-2019

Idk this article says differently

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...irst-copper-creek-buybacks-occur-in-june-2021

“While no formal announcement has been made, Copper Creek Villas was removed from direct purchase incentives on 13 May 2021 which is an indication that the resort has reached a sold-out status. Disney Vacation Development buying back contracts is another sign of sold-out status.”

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

This is incorrect about CCV. The "sold out" price increased in 2021.

Copper Creek reached "sold out" status in June 2019 and the base price increased. You could still buy it, but it wasn't considered to be in "active sales."

https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...4414-sold-out-price-revealed-for-copper-creek

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/news-34867/4519-direct-sales-report-for-june-2019

The first article only says the resort would increase base price and that CCV was 85% sold out by June 2019. So not sold out? Bit of a misleading title from them.

ETA: Maybe the expectation was to be sold out but the reality was different?

 

[PolyRob]

The first article only says the resort would increase base price and that CCV was 85% sold out by June 2019. So not sold out? Bit of a misleading title from them.

ETA: Maybe the expectation was to be sold out but the reality was different?

Maybe Disney said "sold out" to justify the price increase? Disney can say something is "sold out" even when it's sitting on much more than 2% of the points in inventory. VGF wasn't "sold out" until April 2015 and PVB went on sale in Jan 2015, but the focus shifted and PVB was being pushed in active sales.

RIV was the primary WDW property being sold summer 2019.

2020+ did change a bunch of things (including resort builds like Reflections halting and Big Pine Key getting announced) so maybe plans did adjust with the CCV inventory?