Cruise lines pay more for fuel after Katrina, but demand steady
MIAMI (AP) Even-higher fuel costs caused by Hurricane Katrina are expected to cut into cruise lines' profits, but industry officials said they haven't noticed a drop in passengers because of the deadly and disruptive hurricane season.
Carnival, the world's largest cruise operator, and No. 2
Royal Caribbean Cruises both reported much higher profits last year despite a record hurricane season that forced cancellations and itinerary changes. While rising oil prices this year are hurting, the companies still expect stronger earnings.
Fuel costs were already up to 37% higher for the companies in the second quarter, and those increases have continued since then. Crude oil futures hit $70 a barrel last week as Gulf of Mexico rigs and refineries were damaged or closed, but have backed off to around $66 now.
UBS analyst Robin Farley estimates that every additional 10% increase in fuel costs would reduce next year's earnings per share by 15 cents for Royal Caribbean and 10 cents for Carnival. A.G. Edwards & Sons analyst Tim Conder puts it at 6 cents a share for Carnival and 10 cents for Royal Caribbean.
An A.G. Edwards survey from Aug. 29 found that despite the rising fuel costs, ticket prices have been mostly flat or even slightly lower for travel over the rest of the year.
Miami-based Carnival hasn't seen any significant drop-off in reservations since Katrina, except in the hard-hit areas of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, company spokesman Tim Gallagher said.
The cities hit hard by Katrina didn't handle that much cruise traffic, so the overall impact on Carnival and Royal Caribbean shouldn't be significant, Standard & Poor's credit analyst Craig Parmelee said.
"There may be some decline in demand from consumers in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast. But we don't think that's enough of their business that it would be more than a blip," he said.
Carnival expects costs from renting three Carnival Cruise Lines ships to the federal government for refugee housing, scheduling disruptions and other hurricane-related charges to reduce earnings per share by a penny to 3 cents, mostly in the fourth quarter. But that doesn't include the impact of higher fuel costs, which Gallagher said would be disclosed later this month when third-quarter results are announced.
Before the hurricane, Carnival expected earnings per share to be $2.70 for the full year, up from $2.24 last year. Royal Caribbean expected a range of $2.70 to $2.80, up from $2.26 last year. Royal Caribbean spokesman Michael Sheehan declined to comment about Katrina's effect on the company.
The busiest cruise port damaged by Katrina is New Orleans. Gary P. LaGrange, president and chief executive of the Port of New Orleans, predicts it will be at least three or four months before cruise ships will be sailing normal voyages from there.
Carnival Cruise Lines had two ships based in New Orleans Sensation is now being used as a shelter in Galveston, Texas, where the Conquest will also sail from. Royal Caribbean has one ship that was scheduled to sail from New Orleans from December to April. Sheehan declined to say whether the Grandeur of the Seas would still follow that schedule.
Norwegian Cruise Line said Tuesday that it moved a ship from its home port of New Orleans to Houston until January. The Norwegian Sun will then sail from Miami.
Carnival shares rose 4 cents to $49.29 and Royal Caribbean shares rose 10 cents to $42.40 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Doesn't sound like they are looking to profit big time.
Seems like it was no hassle for the other lines to move their ships to other ports. I also found that only one of the three Carnival ships had its home port in NO - the other two were out of Galveston and this deal was done before Rita)