Feb 2024 Average Resale Prices

[CastAStone]

Speculation and to be honest, I don’t see that ever happening.

Ever is a long time but it would surprise me quite a bit if it happened prior to 2042.

 

[CastAStone]

Do you expect BCV und BWV to come back on the market after 2042 without tearing down the buildings? These two occupy prime locations but it seems difficult to imagine the old room layouts in 50 year old buildings being sold as the next shiny thing good for another 50 years.

BCV is hard to assess this far out since there’s no glaring issues other than age (which Disney proved with VGF 2 and Poly isn’t a concern for them), but certainly some could surface.

But I think BWV is a lock for at least a partial teardown/rebuild, if not an entire one. It’s not really even the rooms (though I know everyone hates the door maze), the entire resort is configured in a way that isn’t optimal for even 2024 WDW travelers, and will only get further from how people want to stay at an indoor resort by 2042.

 

[Jwaire]

I think YC is coming because it was on the leaked list of DVC resorts from Tikiman provided years ago and EVERYTHING on the list has come true.

We underestimate the cost of maintaining these expansive older properties.

They also seem to be settling into a strategy of offering both a new resort and converting/expanding older resorts.

BWV is not going anywhere either. Remodeling is always a more cost effective approach than a complete teardown that would require a rebuild with new codes and regulations, of which they no longer control.

 

[CastAStone]

I think YC is coming because it was on the leaked list of DVC resorts from Tikiman provided years ago and EVERYTHING on the list has come true.

We underestimate the cost of maintaining these expansive older properties.

They also seem to be settling into a strategy of offering both a new resort and converting/expanding older resorts.

The intervening years have seen Stormalong Bay reach mythical internet status and room rates adjust to match. Plus Covid demonstrated the financial drawback of operating hotel-timeshare hybrid resorts.

I believe that Tikiman knew what he was talking about but also every exec in that DVC HQ has changed over since then, some roles twice or more.

 

[Jwaire]

Plus Covid demonstrated the financial drawback of operating hotel-timeshare hybrid resorts.

I fail to see your rationale. If anything, COVID taught them to never launch a new resort without a DVC component. DVC members were the first guests back after reopening even before the parks opened and allowed the company to offset some of their sunk costs as members kept paying dues during the closure.

As for DVC management, every single new SVP and GM has stuck to the master plan leaked by Tikiman years ago. That's pretty telling. The only thing left on his list is YC.

 

[aammtt20]

I keep hearing about this mythical Tikiman list, but I tried searching and while I found plenty of posts referencing the list, I couldn't find the list itself. Could anyone help link this DVC newbie to the list or repost what was on it if the original doesn't exist anymore? Thanks

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I keep hearing about this mythical Tikiman list, but I tried searching and while I found plenty of posts referencing the list, I couldn't find the list itself. Could anyone help link this DVC newbie to the list or repost what was on it if the original doesn't exist anymore? Thanks

I would like to second this request.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I keep hearing about this mythical Tikiman list, but I tried searching and while I found plenty of posts referencing the list, I couldn't find the list itself. Could anyone help link this DVC newbie to the list or repost what was on it if the original doesn't exist anymore? Thanks

I would like to second this request.

I don’t think there was an original Disboards post about this but here’s what I could find about it.

https://*******.com/forum/threads/future-dvc-resorts.8982/

The FB page quoted is still active I believe

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I don’t think there was an original Disboards post about this but here’s what I could find about it.

https://*******.com/forum/threads/future-dvc-resorts.8982/

The FB page quoted is still active I believe

Ah shoot I didn’t realize that wouldn’t go through the filter

 

[aammtt20]

Great - thank you for finding and sharing this piece of DVC lore... so I guess now I'll wait and see if anything ever comes of a YC DVC some day

 

[HIRyeDVC]

BCV is hard to assess this far out since there’s no glaring issues other than age (which Disney proved with VGF 2 and Poly isn’t a concern for them), but certainly some could surface.

But I think BWV is a lock for at least a partial teardown/rebuild, if not an entire one. It’s not really even the rooms (though I know everyone hates the door maze), the entire resort is configured in a way that isn’t optimal for even 2024 WDW travelers, and will only get further from how people want to stay at an indoor resort by 2042.

They may not need to do much at BCV since it’s 10 years younger than the other 2042s. It never got the full 50 years

 

[AstroBlasters]

They may not need to do much at BCV since it’s 10 years younger than the other 2042s. It never got the full 50 years

They should have staggered it…

 

[walt34]

They may not need to do much at BCV since it’s 10 years younger than the other 2042s. It never got the full 50 years

That's true but selling it for another 50 would mean it'd be 90 years old at the end. And selling it for fewer years would possible mean asking less money for a prime location.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

That's true but selling it for another 50 would mean it'd be 90 years old at the end. And selling it for fewer years would possible mean asking less money for a prime location.

They can just keep it going with the normal refurb schedule, as long as it's not falling apart, and still resell it for another 40-50 years. It's all speculation of course. No one knows what's going to happen.

 

[walt34]

They can just keep it going with the normal refurb schedule, as long as it's not falling apart, and still resell it for another 40-50 years. It's all speculation of course. No one knows what's going to happen.

No one knows but as Sandisw pointed out above, this seems to be one of the more compelling reasons for DVD to move to a multi-site trust (which they apparently don't want to implement right now (see Poly Tower) but for which preparations have been made).

I doubt that they'd want to compromise on price for this location because of old buildings or infrastructure.

I do wonder what the expected life expectancy for this type of building is in Florida. Where I live, old houses are not uncommon - I own one house that's 400 years old but the climate is different.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

No one knows but as Sandisw pointed out above, this seems to be one of the more compelling reasons for DVD to move to a multi-site trust (which they apparently don't want to implement right now (see Poly Tower) but for which preparations have been made).

I doubt that they'd want to compromise on price for this location because of old buildings or infrastructure.

I do wonder what the expected life expectancy for this type of building is in Florida. Where I live, old houses are not uncommon - I own one house that's 400 years old but the climate is different.

I think there is more that we don't know than we know. But what I'm sure of is that Disney will do everything they can to minimize cost and maximize gain. Converting BPK to DVC and selling it as new at full price was probably the most brilliant economic move they made in decades. If the BCV building is structurally sound, I can't see why they wouldn't just refurb it and sell it as new.

 

[walt34]

I think there is more that we don't know than we know. But what I'm sure of is that Disney will do everything they can to minimize cost and maximize gain. Converting BPK to DVC and selling it as new at full price was probably the most brilliant economic move they made in decades. If the BCV building is structurally sound, I can't see why they wouldn't just refurb it and sell it as new.

DVD will try to maximize profits - no question about it. So it will probably depend on whether they believe a new building might warrant a price premium that's higher than the construction cost or not.

 

[AstroBlasters]

DVD will try to maximize profits - no question about it. So it will probably depend on whether they believe a new building might warrant a price premium that's higher than the construction cost or not.

It also might depend on if they have to go through Reedey Creek or the current Tourism Board for a full year down and rebuild.

 

[CastAStone]

I fail to see your rationale. If anything, COVID taught them to never launch a new resort without a DVC component. DVC members were the first guests back after reopening even before the parks opened and allowed the company to offset some of their sunk costs as members kept paying dues during the closure.

They had to open way more resorts than they had guests for because of the DVC components. Reopening Polynesian DVC for example means not just opening those rooms, but staffing the front desks, staffing a restaurant, staffing the pool, and keeping the grounds to the highest standards, not the half measures they did to keep up the grounds at the moderates and values while they were closed.

DVC members cannot legally be billed for more of that than they would have paid. It was Disney’s choice to keep the hotel sides closed. It was far more expensive for Disney to have all those resorts open than to open just 3 or 4.

And it’s not like this was the first time external events caused Disney to close entire resorts. They did the same after 9/11. It’s reasonable to assume some awful thing will cause it to happen again.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It also might depend on if they have to go through Reedey Creek or the current Tourism Board for a full year down and rebuild.

I agree that cooperation/obstruction/corruption from local and state government could be a factor.

If things are patched up down the road, I could see them tearing down BCV to make a structure that is substantially taller. I think adding 2-4 floors with “theme park view” and “boardwalk view” would more than cover the cost of construction.