Do you mean that 20 million points are expiring all at once? The points from 2042 resorts aren't hitting the market unless I am misunderstanding something.
DVC will have to have some resort(s) in active sales in the 2035-2042 window, I would think. I can't imagine a scenario where the 2042 resorts expire on January 31st and immediately go back on sale under some new iteration on February 1st.
I think you may be misunderstanding? Owners have the right to use their contracts through January 2042, after that - all of the points return to Disney and because there is an existing deed for the property until 2042, I don't think they can just start reselling points for a new deed before that. Maybe some short time earlier like 6 months earlier, the same way you might sell a new property ahead of time, but not years earlier - the new owners wouldn't be allowed to the property until after the original deed expires I don't believe.
For example, if Disney were selling "BWV2" ahead of time, the owners of BWV2 wouldn't be able to use the resort until February 2042 right? I could see them selling ahead of schedule in 2041 or something like that, especially to existing owners - but I doubt anyone would buy into a contract that starts in Feb 2042 in 2035?
If Disney started to allow owners of "BWV2" in 2035 I would think you would run afoul of the original BWV deed and contract owners -- because you'd be interfering with the existing contracts and preventing original owners from using their points. Disney could start to buy back points through ROFR and use them for cash stays I guess?
Sure, Disney could not declare all of the 20M points from the 3 resorts at the same time - they could do like they've been doing with RIV and just declare a percentage of the property for DVC and then as they sell points, they could declare more of it into the new resort I guess, but it would still take years to sell 20M points. RIV has already taken years. Whatever they don't declare they can obviously offer for cash says as well.
This also assumes that Disney does absolutely nothing with the rooms and they would be exactly the same from the first contract to the next. If they plan to refurbish rooms or do something to attract new buyers to these resorts, you couldn't just flip the rooms that easily.
Thats why I think Disney is going to need to take different strategies at least for the 3 WDW resorts. HHI and VBR will likely be sold off to a 3rd party.
The WDW ones, Disney is going to have to get creative, which is why I think they could possibly offer an "extension" to existing owners. It won't be an extension the same way OKW is, it will be a brand new deed but with a shorter timeframe to push at least 1 of the resorts outside of the 2042 window.
That will allow Disney to entice existing owners to "extend" for some amount of time without needing to do anything to 1 of the resorts as well as allow them to change the point values for rooms. Not everyone will buy into the extension, so Disney will try to entice owners of the other 2 resorts to buy into the 1 extension contract -- it buys them time and gives them some cash flow.
It is feasible BCV could be demolished to build something new with more density (think a tower style hotel) and then the 3rd building could either be fully renovated and sold as a new resort, turned into hotel rooms - or something else.
Maybe BRV could get rolled into the CCV deed and the additional points are sold off to existing owners first then new owners or they do an extension contract like I described with BWV.
Will definitely be interesting to see what they actually do, I'm just speculating of course, but I agree with Nabas that there would be too many points for Disney to just try and sell all of them as "new" resorts imho.
What they should have done originally imho is given BCV a full 50 years (BCV only got 40 years, opened in 2002 -> 2042). If they gave BCV the full 50 years and it expired in 2052, you'd have 1 less resort expiring in 2042, BRV could also have been 2044 (opened in 1994) and BWV should have been 2046 (opened in 1996).
That would have spread things out for them and given them a bit of a buffer to resell some of these expiring resorts instead of them all expiring at the same time.