I don’t think it will be anywhere near as many as FP+. For starters, only allowing one at a time immediately makes it so boas many people should be holding access as before. Add in the fact that you have to purchase them and I think you will see more standby line riders than
lightning Lane riders going on each hour. I think that’s exactly what Disney wants.
For the paid rides, I think this is the smartest thing they could have done. With the old paper fast pass and MaxPass in CA, those were the rides where fast passes ran out the fastest. I ty honk by limiting them to just pay or standby, you will see fewer people using the LL and way more standby guests being cycled through.
One other thing I thought of was that they will have to cap sales of RotR and Remy at some point. With boarding groups, there is no way they could assure to get through them if they sole non-stop. I think it will be a set number of overflow that they can sell each hour and then that will be that. How many that will be will have to wait and see. I’m sure the demand during this busy time at the end of 2021 will tell a lot.