Fastpass return or replacement?

[mercuryvenus]

THIS. The current Fastpass system has devolved into a zero sum for most, only benefiting the very few who know how to maximize gains under the current system combining rope drop, fast passes, extra magic hours etc. I am for certain looking forward to a paid FP system to avoid all of this and to just be able to show up to the park and get onto the rides we want to.

But that means the FP system becomes available only to those who can afford to pay for it, on top of an already expensive trip.

 

[malba2366]

No. No fastpass does not increase the line in standby.

"And that's all I've got to say about that."
View attachment 592239

That is simply untrue. A given ride can only accommodate a certain number of guests per hour. If 30% of the time slots are given to fast passes then the standby line will move slower. Yes the average wait per guest is the same with fast passes, but the fast pass riders will have much shorter waits than the standby riders.

 

[Lilsia]

No. No fastpass does not increase the line in standby.

"And that's all I've got to say about that."
View attachment 592239

You do know that mathematically, what you believe can not be true.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

You do know that mathematically, what you believe can not be true.

Except for the fact that touring plans LITERALLY did the math and found it to be true that FP+ did not add to Standby wait times.

 

[Mac30188]

You do understand that only a certain number of people can actually go on a ride at any given hour right? So, all of those people in the FP line are increasing the wait for those in standby. And I have been in the FP line where the wait in the FP line was 20+minutes, which is a lot of people to add to the ride every hour. So any ride, that you are not using your FP, the line will be much longer. So does it really save you all that much time to use those few FP, when every other line is increased? I would put my money on that it doesn't. Unless you are one of those that goes during a slower time, rope drops, and gets a bunch more FP. But the majority of people do not do that.

I think it is actually a lot more complicated. The line does move much faster if you don't have a fast pass line, however fast pass itself is a consumer of standby riders. This includes both those who are physically standing in line AND those who know they have a FastPass and use that time to take a small break, go to bathroom, grab a snack, and feel ok doing it knowing their next ride is going to be a Fastpass. For me this is one of the biggest benefits of the system. The psychological impact of getting to enjoy time not standing in line and still fairly quickly get on a ride cannot be underestimated. If you don't have fast pass lines, then everyone is pretty much always standing in a standby line. It is the only way to enjoy entertainment. It is one of the reasons the lines at Disney are currently so much longer, and my gut says that is also inflating the wait times since it is harder for Disney to predict wait times for a guest standing at a spot that is normally a 55 minute wait, but with no fast pass is now a 30 minute wait. Is a longer, faster moving line more or less of a wait then a shorter, slower moving line? shrug. It does sound like a lot more time in the sun and unless they re-work all the queues that won't change.

I also bet there are winner and loser rides. The availability of a Fastpass feels like a treat and ensures that riders do secondary rides that they may not take the time to do if they didn't have a Fastpass. My gut says that E-ticket standby wait times are probably largely unaffected by Fastpass, but the standby wait on the lower level rides gets inflated because the second tier and lower rides get both the people who see a short line and those who feel lucky to get a Fastpass.

In addition, you are right in their are winners and losers based on touring style. Those that are both informed on how the systems work and dedicated to preparation are at an advantage. They will likely enjoy shorter waits then those that don't plan or ignore the FP system all together. Those that don't understand or forget to do fastpasses have to pay the toll of higher waits at secondary attractions without having any short waits for E-Tickets.

What others have astutely pointed out is the biggest culprit in the wait increases are the missing shows, attractions and parades. If you have the same number of guests but less things for them to do, all the lines will be longer. It could be we are so hyperfocused on Fastpass that we are missing the fact that Disney is actively solving the line probelm most efficiently by continuing to get entertainment online almost every day. Will it save summer? Unlikely, but fall has a much better chance.

 

[malba2366]

Except for the fact that touring plans LITERALLY did the math and found it to be true that FP+ did not add to Standby wait times.

That study was paper fast pass vs fast pass+...

 

[CSLucas]

Except for the fact that touring plans LITERALLY did the math and found it to be true that FP+ did not add to Standby wait times.

I have not actually read it, but I believe someone mentioned that study was just comparing FP+ to paper FP, not FP to total lack of FP, right?
Mathematically there is no way for FP to not increase standby wait times unless you assume the person using the FP would spend the rest of the time not in a ride line (so if the standby time was 60 minutes and they have a FP that gets them in at 20 minutes, the person would have to then spend 40 minutes on non-ride activities before joining another line in order for wait times to not increase because of his/her actions). The only other way around this is if all rides are equally popular and have the same wait times. Otherwise, a person using a FP+ is essentially adding another guest to capacity for those "saved" minutes. It absolutely works in the favor of people with a FP for the big-ticket rides, and it will make people think they are waiting less time overall (and for those guests with the "good" fastpasses (by which I mean the ones that objectively cut out the most wait time) they will get more rides for the same wait time), but because throughput is a fixed amount then there is no mathematical way for it not to increase standby times.

 

[Lilsia]

Except for the fact that touring plans LITERALLY did the math and found it to be true that FP+ did not add to Standby wait times.

How could they have possibly come to that conclusion when you don't have two of the same rides, with the same amount of people in the standby line with one ride having FP? You are added hundreds of more people to the line every hour through the FP line, and you are trying to tell me that it has ZERO effect on the standby line? That those people wait that exact same amount of time that they do without anyone in the FP line? Come on man, there is no way you can possibly believe that to be true. And the moon is made of cheese, right?

 

[DJJimmy9]

Normally, we do not allow threads that were shut down to be reopened. This one is okay to stay, as long as it remains on topic.

Thank you!!!! I assumed the other thread got shut down for a reason not related to the FP+ discussion. I cannot think of a more important topic on the rumors board than FP. And the responses on this thread show that. I will do my best to keep it on topic.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

How could they have possibly come to that conclusion when you don't have two of the same rides, with the same amount of people in the standby line with one ride having FP? You are added hundreds of more people to the line every hour through the FP line, and you are trying to tell me that it has ZERO effect on the standby line? That those people wait that exact same amount of time that they do without anyone in the FP line? Come on man, there is no way you can possibly believe that to be true. And the moon is made of cheese, right?

So explain to me why people are so desperate for old FastPass+ to return or new FastPass to be announced if it’s going to make wait times even worse?

Why are people so annoyed that their summer trips are going to be ruined by wait times and that everyone going after Oct 1st is going to have a better trip if FastPass will make the wait times “even more unbearable”.

 

[Lilsia]

So explain to me why people are so desperate for old FastPass+ to return or new FastPass to be announced if it’s going to make wait times even worse?

Why are people so annoyed that their summer trips are going to be ruined by wait times and that everyone going after Oct 1st is going to have a better trip if FastPass will make the wait times “even more unbearable”.

I imagine it is because FP gives you those 3 rides where you have a minimal wait. But most don't factor in how much longer the other lines are to compensate. it "feels" like you are waiting less. Why do some people buy the dining plan when it actually costs them more money then if they paid OOP? Humans are weird.

 

[DJJimmy9]

That is simply untrue. A given ride can only accommodate a certain number of guests per hour. If 30% of the time slots are given to fast passes then the standby line will move slower. Yes the average wait per guest is the same with fast passes, but the fast pass riders will have much shorter waits than the standby riders.

You are right…every ride has a daily max capacity. If I get a FP for 2:00pm, I will use it then and eat up a tiny portion of that ride capacity. I get that I jumped ahead of the people in the standby queue and made their wait a little longer. But had I not gotten that FP, I would have (theoretically) gotten in the standby queue at some other time that day and still would used that % of ride capacity. And, if I got in line at 1:00pm instead of waiting for my FP time, I still may have been ahead of those I jumped ahead of when using my FP.

Now I understand if I get 3 Fastpasses for that same ride in the same day then Yes I am maximizing the system to my benefit which impacts others who are not doing the same.

Perhaps it would help by limiting free fastpasses to 1 per attraction per day or even some maximum total of Fastpasses (like I don’t know 3). But if you add an option to buy more, only a select few will be able to afford to constantly jump the line.

 

[malba2366]

So explain to me why people are so desperate for old FastPass+ to return or new FastPass to be announced if it’s going to make wait times even worse?

Why are people so annoyed that their summer trips are going to be ruined by wait times and that everyone going after Oct 1st is going to have a better trip if FastPass will make the wait times “even more unbearable”.

Because the people on here are largely the subset of people who know how to work the Fastpass+ system, and are much more likely to plan way in advance to benefit from it.

 

[Mac30188]

...with the same amount of people in the standby line....

This maybe the key phrase in your quote that won't be true with Faspass.

You are absolutely right in there is no way a person standing 10th in a standby line for a ride that also has a fast pass line will get on a ride faster then a rider standing 10th in line with only a Standby line.

However..

If you only have standby lines, those lines will be longer because Faspass the system pulls people out of Standby lines to stand in Faspass lines and people who are influenced by Faspass not to stand in line at all. The question becomes closer to will a person 20th in line in a standby only line get ona ride faster then 10th in in a standby line for a ride that also has Fastpass.

 

[Wendysofftoneverland]

I was a big FP user. But the lines are so much better now without FP. The issue was that, when they went from limited paper ones to everyone gets 3 ahead of time, that they dramatically increased how many FP they gave out per hour. This is what caused the huge line back ups for stand by. I know people feel that "at least I get a minimum of 3 lines that I can skip". But it makes all of the other lines so much longer unnecessarily. I have been going to WDW for decades, way before they introduced the original, paper FP system. If they bring them back, they really should change how they use them. They give out way too many.

I loved knowing that I could at least get 3 rides in. I have little kids that can't wait in line long. Generally one 30-45 minute wait a day and everything else 30 minutes or less. I used to FastPass Small World. On our last pre-covid trip, we started 2 days at HS so we could FP Slinky Dog Dash one day and Alien Flying Saucers another. Millennium Falcon was a 35 minute wait, so we did that one, too, in addition to 3 other shows/attractions. On our most recent trip, we waited in line 45 minutes for Minnie and Mickey's Runaway Railway, but it went down for maintenance before we got to ride. We ended up doing only 1 HS attraction that day before giving up and hopping to Epcot right at 2 pm.

 

[Lewisc]

Some are okay with a paid FP+ Tyler. Just as long as it doesn't cost us a first born.

Didn't one poster suggest the option of giving Disney a middle child?

 

[CSLucas]

You are right…every ride has a daily max capacity. If I gets FP at 2:00pm, I will use it then and eat up a tiny portion of that capacity. I get that I jumped ahead of the people in the standby queue and made their wait a little longer. But had I not gotten that FP, I would have (theoretically) gotten in the standby queue at some other time that day and still would used that % of ride capacity. And, if I got in line at 1:00pm instead of waiting for my FP time, I still may have been ahead of those I jumped ahead of when using my FP.

Now I understand if I get 3 Fastpasses for that same ride in the same day then Yes I am maximizing the system to my benefit which impacts others who are not doing the same.

Perhaps it would help by limiting free fastpasses to 1 per attraction per day or even some maximum total of Fastpasses (like I don’t know 3). But if you add an option to buy more, only a select few will be able to afford to constantly jump the line.

Except this only works if all rides are equally attractive. If you get a fastpass for a ride that normally has an hour wait (bringing your wait to 20 minutes), you are then able to used that saved 40 minutes to do two more secondary rides with waits of 20 minutes each. The secondary rides also have fixed capacity, and now there are more people trying to go through them (if you hadn't had that fastpass, you wouldn't have tried to go through the secondary rides), whereas the person who only got a fastpass for a secondary ride (say wait time is now 5 minutes) only saved 15 minutes, which isn't enough time to add another ride to their day. Now, if there was enough ride capacity for each guests to do every ride once per day then it would work itself out, but I don't know if that's the case. Considering everything that is currently closed (meet and greets and shows that would normally spread out the inflation effects of fastpasses at the better rides), if you added Fastpass right now in its previous form, it would undoubtedly be great for a the lucky few, and terrible for everyone else. To me that is why a paid system makes sense - that way at least people are paying for the better experience and not just getting it through luck of the draw.
The system as it stood before would also penalize people who take last-minute vacations which I would think is the very last thing Disney wants to do. It's hard to entice people to book a trip at 60 days when they aren't going to get on any "good" rides (and, although I know this forum is full of people who plan 11 months in advance, there are people who don't plan so far out).
In my mind, it is a no-brainer that Disney will move to a paid system. I still believe there will be free options, but I will be very surprised if there isn't a way to pay to bypass the line while in the park. I wouldn't expect any form of fastpass to return until the new system is ready. I don't think it would be good from a marketing standpoint, and I don't think it would even help most people because of everything that is closed.

 

[DJJimmy9]

Except this only works if all rides are equally attractive. If you get a fastpass for a ride that normally has an hour wait (bringing your wait to 20 minutes), you are then able to used that saved 40 minutes to do two more secondary rides with waits of 20 minutes each. The secondary rides also have fixed capacity, and now there are more people trying to go through them (if you hadn't had that fastpass, you wouldn't have tried to go through the secondary rides), whereas the person who only got a fastpass for a secondary ride (say wait time is now 5 minutes) only saved 15 minutes, which isn't enough time to add another ride to their day. Now, if there was enough ride capacity for each guests to do every ride once per day then it would work itself out, but I don't know if that's the case. Considering everything that is currently closed (meet and greets and shows that would normally spread out the inflation effects of fastpasses at the better rides), if you added Fastpass right now in its previous form, it would undoubtedly be great for a the lucky few, and terrible for everyone else. To me that is why a paid system makes sense - that way at least people are paying for the better experience and not just getting it through luck of the draw.
The system as it stood before would also penalize people who take last-minute vacations which I would think is the very last thing Disney wants to do. It's hard to entice people to book a trip at 60 days when they aren't going to get on any "good" rides (and, although I know this forum is full of people who plan 11 months in advance, there are people who don't plan so far out).
In my mind, it is a no-brainer that Disney will move to a paid system. I still believe there will be free options, but I will be very surprised if there isn't a way to pay to bypass the line while in the park. I wouldn't expect any form of fastpass to return until the new system is ready. I don't think it would be good from a marketing standpoint, and I don't think it would even help most people because of everything that is closed.

You are absolutely right about there not being enough open to make the old Fastpass system effective. <INSERT salty comment about Disney increasing park capacity too rapidly>. One of the hardest FP to get was to meet Mickey at town square. I never wasted one of three on that, but I often tried to get it unsuccessfully after I used my 3 freebies. Meeting the princesses, Mickey, tinker bell, and story time with Belle not being open strains the old FP structure at MK. And I get your point about the advanced planning in our current environment.

But why not release limited day-of FP for anyone with a park reservation? It addresses both of your main concerns and keeps us FP junkies somewhat happy.

 

[TCRAIG]

But have you gone this July? They raised capacity 3x for July park passes before my trip and one time after I got back. You can’t compare your last few trips with reduced capacity vs. now. And right now there is nothing else to go do if you choose not to wait in line.

I was at WDW 1 weeks ago as part of a party of 9 - we had a great time…the heat was much more of a problem than the lack of FP

 

[Cynner]

Personally, I hate standing in line for hours. I'd happily take a virtual queue, a fastpass or a paid fastpass to be able to do something else instead of standing in a long line not able to do anything else. I do hope that they have a combo that lets those staying at WDW resorts have some sort of free fastpass option, but I have no problem with an add-on paid fastpass on top of it.

THIS. The current Fastpass system has devolved into a zero sum for most, only benefiting the very few who know how to maximize gains under the current system combining rope drop, fast passes, extra magic hours etc. I am for certain looking forward to a paid FP system to avoid all of this and to just be able to show up to the park and get onto the rides we want to.

And really this - why is this 'only the very few' when all of the information and guides are out there totally and freely available to anyone? I feel sorry for folks who think they can just pop into WDW with no planning, but it's not hard information to find anymore. There's really no reason why anyone can't find it with an easy web search.