Extra Fastpasses: A Case Study

[famy27]

Over the years, we have gotten various notices from Disney about things relating to upcoming trips. They have involved things like pool closings, food court and restaurant closings, and the temporary removal of refrigerators from guest rooms. These things show to me that Disney is concerned about having guests informed about what is going on in their resorts.

I have never gotten a specific notice about things going on in the parks, like ride closures, construction walls, etc.

As I said in my previous lengthy post, I really don't know how Disney could have sent meaningful notices to guests about the evolution of FP+ and the elimination of paper FP, even if they had wanted to, without creating more problems than they would have solved.

Things like pool and food court closings are easy to explain because everyone can understand and visualize them. To understand a notice relating to FP and FP+, someone would have to understand how the whole paper FP system worked in the first place, which we know that a lot of people didn't. Then trying to explain how FP+ works would be even more confusing. All a notice like that would be likely to do is confuse the heck out of people and make them apprehensive about something about which they were blissfully ignorant before. For a lot of them, to be told when they arrived that they would be able to make reservations for 3 rides in advance every day, they probably DID consider that to be a positive because they had no idea about FPs before.

Look, I get it. There were some people that feel like their trips were adversely affected in a significant way by FP+ and that they would have liked to have known more in advance what they were going to be facing. And, if you were one of those people, I hope that you let Disney know how disappointed you were and that Disney was able to do something for you to at least mitigate that disappointment.

I think we are getting closer to being on the same page on FP+. I have been more of a detractor than a supporter since the introduction of tiers. I am swinging back around to support with the 4th FP. I'll be testing it out for myself in 24 days and will have more to report. For now, I am feeling hopeful

But I want to thank you for your last paragraph. I think that is all that many people who've had negative experiences are asking for. Some empathy and understanding that FP+ and the rollout have had a negative impact on real people's trips.

 

[Laketravis]

It's funny, because months ago someone used the information from the patent to argue something unfavourable (I believe it might have been monetizing FP+? Can't remember), and people were all over him claiming that it was basically stupid to use a patent to try and figure out the direction Disney would be taking with this.

Yeah, um..... that was me. And I find it ironic as well.

'cept the patent I referenced isn't 6 years old, it's more recent. Link is in my signature line.

 

[pbruce706]

I admittedly didn't read the entire thread, stopped around page 15. My thoughts...

First of all, thank you OP for the info! Great to see how the system works in preparation for our August trip.

I think it's moot to argue whether Disney anticipated this or that, but since it's the flavor of the day, I suspect the truth is in the middle, as it usually is.

Of course Disney planned on allowing more than just three FP+ selections. I think they (and still are) are tweaking and learning the best way to run the system. As huge a roll out as this is, and as a big of a change / impact it's making, they certainly couldn't dump the whole system at once and then pull back things that didn't work out. That would have been a fiasco worse than anything we're seeing now.

Imagine if people had been able to pre book six fast passes per day at multiple parks, and then they changed it to the system we have now? Far better and manageable to bring it in in it's barest form and add things as time and data progresses.

As to the why, I think it's pretty obvious... at least from my perspective. Two reasons.

1) As stated by Disney, they want you locked in. Yes many guests will venture outside the WDW resort during their vacation, but the more you lock them in before they arrive, the more of their funds you'll get out of their wallet.

This isn't a bad thing, Disney is a corporation and exists to make a profit. They've been as successful as they have been because they make their profit by providing a premium service and product that makes people happy and is delivered with top notch (mostly) customer service. But they are a corporation.

2) Most importantly, in my mind, they paid 1.5 Billion dollars (inserts pinky to corner of mouth) to create the world's greatest marketing information database. The data they can mine, automagically, without additional man power, is incredible. They know your demographic, your stay, your spending, your time, your movements, your changes, your likes, your dislikes, and on and on. They used to capture some of it with resort guests, but now they have offsite guests in the bucket. This is huge. This will be the future for WDW and will shape the offerings, rides, parks, merchandise, the whole experience.

 

[Laketravis]

On the subject of patents, I'm not sure everyone is even referring to the same one. There has been some discussion on the boards about a patent application that was published on January 17, 2013 titled "Guest Experience Management System and Method".

Now there is a reference to a patent (I don't know if that was just a publication or an actually granted patent) from 7 years ago. That must be something different.

That is correct.

 

[jade1]

On the subject of patents, I'm not sure everyone is even referring to the same one.

Now there is a reference to a patent (I don't know if that was just a publication or an actually granted patent) from 7 years ago. That must be something different.

https://www.google.com/patents/US20070203763

It's really long and in depth-if you read all of it you will see what went into the algorithms and distribution forms.

Some parts are easier to decipher:

Segmentation

Different hierarchal models can be established for the ability and right to obtain and use the Fastpass according to different priorities.

1. Guest
a. Spending per guest at hotels can determine different hierarchies of access to Fastpass. Thus, the more that is spent by a patron, the higher the priority can be for Fastpass.
b. Hotel accommodation in related resorts and environments associated with the entertainment center are allocated different priorities. Where a patron is in a related hotel, a higher priority can be given.
c. Different levels and hierarchies can be applicable at different hotels. Thus, more luxurious hotels can have higher priorities.

2. Seasonal differences can be factored into the grant of different privileges. Accordingly, special promotions for Fastpass can be provided according to the season.

Guest Value Features

By providing remote access at different early times, there can be different advantages and benefits.

1. Early Fastpass Access

a. There is the ability to offer guests early access to Fastpass via their in-room TV, (DTV or hotel kiosk), to select the attractions for a Fastpass is required.
i. The ability to access this access may be variable, such as the night before, day of prior to entertainment park open, and day of after park opens.
b. Pre-Arrival
i. The Fastpass may be obtainable via the WEB from a remote location such as a home computer
I. The Fastpass may be supplied as printed paper tickets
II. the Fastpass may be supplied electronically and wirelessly through a download to a PDA or cellular telephone
2. Multiple Fastpass accesses for Resort guests is possible
a. Each Guest per room is able to select same or separate Fastpass as others in the room. As each attraction is selected Guest can select which Guests want that selection.
b. The ability to offer different numbers (i.e. more than 3, could be variable) of Fastpass based on segmentation.
3. There is the ability to offer premium return times based on segmentation.
4. There is the ability to let segmented guests have first chance to certain inventory.
5. There is the ability to allow guests with parkhopper entitlements to choose a Fastpass for a second park on the same day.
6. There is the ability to issue a concurrent Fastpass for the day guest (with long virtual waits).

 

[leebee]

Serious question: How does Disney do one without doing the other? I mean, you can get away with it if you're in the healthcare industry, or public utilities, or housing, maybe insurance.

But a theme park?

Serious question, serious answer. It's a subtle distinction. I think Disney rolled out an iteration of fastpass that they believed would provide them with the fattest bottom line. While Disney thought that people would space out their rides and shop/eat in between, enough people were riding and leaving to effect what Disney thought their profit should be, so they implemented adding the 4th and consecutive FP+s to keep people in the park. This was done NOT because people were unhappy, but because they weren't staying and spending. If some sort of plan had originally been established that would keep people in the parks longer (perhaps 2 hours between FP+s?), I don't think you'd have seen the implementation of the 4th FP+. I think Disney saw that their profits weren't meeting projections and sought to rectify that, and based on post-trip survey data, adding the option of booking additional FP+ on the day-of was the best way to keep people in the park and fatten the bottom line.

I also think Disney had to hedge their bets a bit in the ability to pre-reserve FP+. Obviously, if John and Jane Doe (with the little Does, Fawn and Buck) show up at a theme park and buy one day passes, there had better be some ride availability. FP+ for gate purchased tickets HAS to be available or there will be stink in the media. However, I would estimate that by 1pm, most people who are coming to Disney for just one day are already in the park; would you pay the kind of money that one day tickets demand and NOT be there pretty close to rope drop? Obviously Disney reserved some FP+s for day-of people, but by early afternoon those are available for re-assignment. If the first pre-reserved FP+ was at 9, the earliest you'll be done with FP+ windows is noon (allowing an hour for each window). By that time of day, any FP+s reserved for day sales will be released to the additional FP+ pool.

 

[jade1]

Yeah, um..... that was me. And I find it ironic as well.

'cept the patent I referenced isn't 6 years old, it's more recent. Link is in my signature line.

Yep you-and I was totally on your side if I remember. The patent covers that possibility.

If they announced any form of monetizing FP+ (other than they obviously already are with onsite advantages) in the near or distant future, there is no way somebody would get away with:

"But for those that think that the current system was "in the cards" all along, well, I'd like some of what you are drinking"

You would point to the fact it was in the cards, I know I would.

 

[SuperRob]

Segmentation

...

1. Early Fastpass Access

a. There is the ability to offer guests early access to Fastpass via their in-room TV, (DTV or hotel kiosk), to select the attractions for a Fastpass is required.
i. The ability to access this access may be variable, such as the night before, day of prior to entertainment park open, and day of after park opens.
b. Pre-Arrival
i. The Fastpass may be obtainable via the WEB from a remote location such as a home computer
I. The Fastpass may be supplied as printed paper tickets
II. the Fastpass may be supplied electronically and wirelessly through a download to a PDA or cellular telephone
2. Multiple Fastpass accesses for Resort guests is possible
a. Each Guest per room is able to select same or separate Fastpass as others in the room. As each attraction is selected Guest can select which Guests want that selection.
b. The ability to offer different numbers (i.e. more than 3, could be variable) of Fastpass based on segmentation.
3. There is the ability to offer premium return times based on segmentation.
4. There is the ability to let segmented guests have first chance to certain inventory.
5. There is the ability to allow guests with parkhopper entitlements to choose a Fastpass for a second park on the same day.
6. There is the ability to issue a concurrent Fastpass for the day guest (with long virtual waits).

So I just want to point out that you didn't bold the part that was critical here, and that's that Disney build the system with specifically SEGMENTATION in mind. That is to say that different kinds of guests may get different entitlements. We already see this with resort guests getting advance access to FastPass booking. But Disney also mentioned that the system has the ability to offer guests more passes based on their status. For example, the system already knows if you're a DVC member or an Annual Passholder. It would be trivial for them to give these guests an extra FP. They planned for it, and it's likely in the software waiting to be turned on. And with the seasonal provision noted, they can even decide if they're going to hand out extra passes based on time of year. So in the busy summer months you get three, but in the fall, they may offer resort guests four. Again, a great way to try to get more people to stay on Disney property.

My point is while this says that they added the ability to have more than three, I don't think it's explicitly the "rolling fourth" that was just added, more as a way to retain guest loyalty at certain levels.

Also note that they planned for the ability for a guest to show up with no advance warning, and get priority access to FastPasses. So clearly guest satisfaction plays a role here, to make sure that someone just showing up out of the blue would not be subjected to long lines.

To wit, Disney thought this out and built a system that could be easily modified to meet whatever needs arose. Was the "rolling fourth" something that was always planned for? I think it's likely that while it was not SPECIFICALLY outlined, I think they were smart and built it to respond to needs quickly Given how fast the turnaround was between Tom's announcement and when they rolled it out, they were already thinking about ways to improve the experience.

Other things to note, Disney clearly knows when the "premium" return times are. This speaks to the issue about having to go Back in the kiosk and change the time to something sooner. They're holding back some inventory for day-guests or other kids of guests, but a savvy guest can get at them. Most won't bother to look.

Edit: Also, this whole section is specifically about Early FastPass Access. So it's not necessarily talking about the in-park experience, but how many and where you can book in-advance. So being able to park hop they way they have it now isn't necessarily the end. They've thought about how to offer parks to multiple passes the same day in-advance. Again, this helps Disney in planning, so this is information they want to be able to have. Park Hopping is a drain on resources (which is why they charge for it), so knowing in advance if a guest is planning to do it is a big deal.

I find this stuff fascinating.

 

[ArwenMarie]

https://www.google.com/patents/US20070203763

It's really long and in depth-if you read all of it you will see what went into the algorithms and distribution forms.

Some parts are easier to decipher:

Segmentation

Different hierarchal models can be established for the ability and right to obtain and use the Fastpass according to different priorities.

1. Guest
a. Spending per guest at hotels can determine different hierarchies of access to Fastpass. Thus, the more that is spent by a patron, the higher the priority can be for Fastpass.
b. Hotel accommodation in related resorts and environments associated with the entertainment center are allocated different priorities. Where a patron is in a related hotel, a higher priority can be given.
c. Different levels and hierarchies can be applicable at different hotels. Thus, more luxurious hotels can have higher priorities.

2. Seasonal differences can be factored into the grant of different privileges. Accordingly, special promotions for Fastpass can be provided according to the season.

Guest Value Features

By providing remote access at different early times, there can be different advantages and benefits.

Thanks for posting, interesting stuff.

 

[jade1]

So I just want to point out that you didn't bold the part that was critical here, and that's that Disney build the system with specifically SEGMENTATION in mind.

Yea I didn't want any gaskets blown. As others mentioned there are updated patents most likely with more precise descriptions, but the point is the number offered can be changed and park hopping is in there as well.

I think they have left off segmentation for now on the 3 reserved (other than 30 to 60 days and BOG) but I'm not so sure on the 4th and 5th etc-will be hard to decipher that, unless there are constant reports of Deluxe oddly getting a 2nd TSM much more often.

 

[SuperRob]

Yea I didn't want any gaskets blown.

How's that workin' out for ya?

 

[ArwenMarie]

Yea I didn't want any gaskets blown.

I think they have left off segmentation for now on the 3 reserved (other than 30 to 60 days and BOG) but I'm not so sure on the 4th and 5th etc-will be hard to decipher that, unless there are constant reports of Deluxe oddly getting a 2nd TSM much more often.

Yep, the way they chose to segment for onsite versus offsite was the booking window. Which is brilliant really.

I personally don't think they are going to segment the 4th rolling FP...I don't think they care at that point. Some days there will be lots left to pick from, some days there will be scraps. I still believe that if there had been enough left after prebooking, they would have sold them, that's why the 4th FP came at the end.

 

[SuperRob]

Yep, the way they chose to segment for onsite versus offsite was the booking window. Which is brilliant really.

I personally don't think they are going to segment the 4th rolling FP...I don't think they care at that point. Some days there will be lots left to pick from, some days there will be scraps. I still believe that if there had been enough left after prebooking, they would have sold them, that's why the 4th FP came at the end.

Right, but the point is that they can. They engineered the system to allow for the ability if business needs change. But Disney is pretty sensitive to setting up too much of a class system. Note that getting more pre-booking ability (like, say, four instead of three) doesn't mean that any class of guest is actually getting MORE rides. There is a finite limit on how much anyone can ride in a day. The guest with three can get their fourth while the guest that got four is still waiting to use the fourth. There is a certain amount of fairness in that, it's just not exactly equitable (they are different things).

So yeah, Disney is being pretty cautious with how they implement the features and how they'll be perceived. But the main thesis stands ... Disney built it with having the ability to make changes in mind, and to suggest otherwise would ignore the facts that are plainly evident not just in how they've done it so far, but what they've stated.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Right, but the point is that they can. They engineered the system to allow for the ability if business needs change. But Disney is pretty sensitive to setting up too much of a class system. Note that getting more pre-booking ability (like, say, four instead of three, doesn't mean that any class of guest is actually getting MORE rides. There is a finite limit on how much anyone can ride in a day. The guest with three can get their fourth while the guest that got four is still waiting to use the fourth. There is a certain amount of fairness in that, it's just not exactly equitable (they are different things).

So yeah, Disney is being pretty cautious with how they implement the features and how they'll be perceived. But the main thesis stands ... Disney built it with having the ability to make changes in mind, and to suggest otherwise would ignore the facts that are plainly evident not just in how they've done it so far, but what they've stated.

Oh yeah, they definitely can. Hey, they even tested that bonus FP+ in MK at the beginning that went away.

I was convinced there would be bonus FPs for staying onsite or deluxe, but apparently not. Maybe that would have generated too much bad publicity as you said. Or maybe there isn't enough left at the end of prebooking to make that functionality worth it. Same for selling them.

 

[OtherScott]

Serious question, serious answer. It's a subtle distinction. I think Disney rolled out an iteration of fastpass that they believed would provide them with the fattest bottom line.

How would leaving FPs in the queue add to the bottom line?

While Disney thought that people would space out their rides and shop/eat in between, enough people were riding and leaving to effect what Disney thought their profit should be, so they implemented adding the 4th and consecutive FP+s to keep people in the park.

Isn't a simpler answer that they offered 3 originally because they lacked data on redemption rates for FPs booked 30-60 days out? And upon seeing that with even with an increased number of guests using the system, managing the disbursement rather than blindly dumping it on a "next up" basis led to greater efficiency - which was sorta the reason they spent $1.5 billion in the first place?

This was done NOT because people were unhappy, but because they weren't staying and spending.

Has that been reported anywhere?

If some sort of plan had originally been established that would keep people in the parks longer (perhaps 2 hours between FP+s?), I don't think you'd have seen the implementation of the 4th FP+.

So what would they have done with surplus capacity? If your answer is monetize/incentivize, be careful here. Some of our friends have made the case that capacity was only increased by adding worthless attractions. Oh, and you get all of your revenue from roughly 1/2 of park guests via in park spending.

I think Disney saw that their profits weren't meeting projections and sought to rectify that, and based on post-trip survey data, adding the option of booking additional FP+ on the day-of was the best way to keep people in the park and fatten the bottom line.

They surveyed on how to do it, not whether or not to do it. And they have a different take on their profits and guest satisfaction levels.

I also think Disney had to hedge their bets a bit in the ability to pre-reserve FP+. Obviously, if John and Jane Doe (with the little Does, Fawn and Buck) show up at a theme park and buy one day passes, there had better be some ride availability. FP+ for gate purchased tickets HAS to be available or there will be stink in the media. However, I would estimate that by 1pm, most people who are coming to Disney for just one day are already in the park; would you pay the kind of money that one day tickets demand and NOT be there pretty close to rope drop? Obviously Disney reserved some FP+s for day-of people, but by early afternoon those are available for re-assignment. If the first pre-reserved FP+ was at 9, the earliest you'll be done with FP+ windows is noon (allowing an hour for each window). By that time of day, any FP+s reserved for day sales will be released to the additional FP+ pool.

This can/is achieved through efficiency. If Disney has to hold back for day of, pre-books would have run up against the allocation limit at some point approaching day of. Other than A&E, did you see any reports of people not be able to pull prior to visit? Worst cases were inability to change day of.

 

[SuperRob]

Oh yeah, they definitely can. Hey, they even tested that bonus FP+ in MK at the beginning that went away.

I was convinced there would be bonus FPs for staying onsite or deluxe, but apparently not. Maybe that would have generated too much bad publicity as you said. Or maybe there isn't enough left at the end of prebooking to make that functionality worth it. Same for selling them.

Think about what Disney could do. They desperately want to get rid of discounts. But they need something of a high perceived value to be able to replace those discounts. What do you do?

If it's me (and I can only speak for me), before offering any kind of incentive like free dining or room discounts, I would offer something like an additional FP selection to AP holders, to encourage them to make another trip. Then maybe do the same for DVC members. See how the resorts are filling up based on that. After that you can see what kinds of incentives they need to offer.

Perceived value is one of those fun marketing things we play with all the time.* Disney branded merchandise has a high perceived value for a variety of reasons. The brand, the high retail price (which Disney sets, of course), merchandise quality. Those all add up to a perceived value far in excess of it's cost.

What would people pay for priority access to a ride? You hear people talk about that all the time, how they'd be willing to pay. Other parks have done it, so that's basically free market research for them. They know the perceived value of a FastPass. That's likely part of why this is such a high-visibility part of MyMagic+. Guaranteeing access to at least three of your favorite rides in advance of your trip has MASSIVE perceived value to the average guest.

Now if you offer to increase that by 25% per day!? You could see many guests giving up a discount or promotion for an extra guaranteed ride.

*Why yes, I am in Marketing.

 

[OtherScott]

Yep, the way they chose to segment for onsite versus offsite was the booking window. Which is brilliant really.

I personally don't think they are going to segment the 4th rolling FP...I don't think they care at that point. Some days there will be lots left to pick from, some days there will be scraps. I still believe that if there had been enough left after prebooking, they would have sold them, that's why the 4th FP came at the end.

Every time I try to convince myself that this is the case, I run up against "how do you price it?" It's an ever changing inventory. I guess if they let you book, then pay?

 

[OtherScott]

Think about what Disney could do. They desperately want to get rid of discounts. But they need something of a high perceived value to be able to replace those discounts. What do you do?

If it's me (and I can only speak for me), before offering any kind of incentive like free dining or room discounts, I would offer something like an additional FP selection to AP holders, to encourage them to make another trip. Then maybe do the same for DVC members. See how the resorts are filling up based on that. After that you can see what kinds of incentives they need to offer.

Perceived value is one of those fun marketing things we play with all the time.* Disney branded merchandise has a high perceived value for a variety of reasons. The brand, the high retail price (which Disney sets, of course), merchandise quality. Those all add up to a perceived value far in excess of it's cost.

What would people pay for priority access to a ride? You hear people talk about that all the time, how they'd be willing to pay. Other parks have done it, so that's basically free market research for them. They know the perceived value of a FastPass. That's likely part of why this is such a high-visibility part of MyMagic+. Guaranteeing access to at least three of your favorite rides in advance of your trip has MASSIVE perceived value to the average guest.

Now if you offer to increase that by 25% per day!? You could see many guests giving up a discount or promotion for an extra guaranteed ride.

*Why yes, I am in Marketing.

The hard part for me on this is the name, and how it was administered in the past. It's really difficult to monetize something that was available for free.

They have taken an important step to doing that in the future by establishing a value to it - increased prebook window. It's not a $ number yet, but a statement has been made.

 

[SuperRob]

The hard part for me on this is the name, and how it was administered in the past. It's really difficult to monetize something that was available for free.

They have taken an important step to doing that in the future by establishing a value to it - increased prebook window. It's not a $ number yet, but a statement has been made.

You're right, and that's why you still offer it for "free." Making people pay for a FastPass would cause riots. Offer additional passes as an incentive, and there's way less friction. Still "free", but you find a way to monetize it that isn't directly related to the FP itself (such as reduced discounts). Most people won't do the math, and Disney knows this. That's why Free Dining is still offered every fall. Most guests don't do the math, because booking a room with a 30% discount is frequently a better deal than Free Dining. The perceived value of Free Dining is high for many guests, though.

 

[morethananyonex]

I think it's hard to imagine FP+ being used in place of significant discounts if the discounts are necessary. Is an extra FP+ or two a day really going to make people want to pay a higher price like free dining does if they wouldn't consider it otherwise? I personally don't think so. At best I think it could maybe bump people up from value to moderate or moderate to deluxe if there were a significant difference between the levels. I would personally view it more like a bonus than an incentive, kind of like the free Memory Maker promo.

There's also the difference in that 30% off or free dining gives you tangible savings. I won't get into the is free dining really free, but there's no question that you can figure out the dollar amount you saved, or what it's worth. FP+ is subjective (unless they start directly pricing it), so the value can't be determined in a concrete "here's why this is a good deal" kind of way.

There could also be an unfortunate side effect of people booking shorter trips because of an increased number of FP per day. If you tell people they can book 4 or 5 FP in advance at the MK, they may be more willing to cut an extra MK day, for example.

Basically, IMO if FP+ alone is enough of a "discount" for booking, people would likely book for a much lesser discount than free dining or 30-35% as well. I don't see them in the same ballpark.