Evening Wait Times: Posted vs Actual

[Babe the Blue Ox]

A few weeks ago, Len Testa from Touring Plans was on here discussing posted/actual wait times among a variety of other topics. He felt that Disney is currently posting more accurate wait times than in the past and they are less "over-inflated" than in prior years.

I put this to the test last week and did find his hypothesis to be correct. Posted waits, especially during the daytime hours, were usually very accurate. The inflated wait times started to pop up about 2 hours before closing time on the headliner attractions, but these times were generally 2x the actual wait and not up to 4x like they have been in the past.

By the end of our visit, we found ourselves comparing the actual waits to half of the posted time just to see how close they would be. Most ride waits could be predicted within 5 minutes using this theory.

Hopefully this can help someone with their planning and strategy.

 

[stinkpickle]

Agreed. The posted standby wait times were much more accurate two weeks ago than in the past.

 

[TheOneWithTheTriplets]

I found this to be true on our 4th of July visit as well. Rather than leaving the headliners up around an hour despite lower crowds, the wait times were accurately being reduced (late night Tron and 7D were both right on).

 

[gottalovepluto]

So is this the disconnect between various bloggers reporting it's such a slow summer and Disney's earnings showing WDW had it's best ever start to summer? On a CNBC interview, the CFO said WDW traffic was up a little bit and per-capita spending was up very solidly. Obviously the spending matters for the earnings but the traffic note means it has not been quieter than the start to last summer...

 

[sponica]

So is this the disconnect between various bloggers reporting it's such a slow summer and Disney's earnings showing WDW had it's best ever start to summer? On a CNBC interview, the CFO said WDW traffic was up a little bit and per-capita spending was up very solidly. Obviously the spending matters for the earnings but the traffic note means it has not been quieter than the start to last summer...

Probably. They also tweaked the Lightning Lane to standby ratio. It's closer to a 50/50 split which speeds up the standby wait and doesn't add a ton of time to the LL wait.
People tend to use wait times as a proxy for crowds, but if the lines are moving efficiently one might think there are fewer people.

 

[Minnie1222]

So is this the disconnect between various bloggers reporting it's such a slow summer and Disney's earnings showing WDW had it's best ever start to summer? On a CNBC interview, the CFO said WDW traffic was up a little bit and per-capita spending was up very solidly. Obviously the spending matters for the earnings but the traffic note means it has not been quieter than the start to last summer...

It didn't look that slow a few weeks ago despite the infernal heat.

 

[lentesta]

A few weeks ago, Len Testa from Touring Plans was on here discussing posted/actual wait times among a variety of other topics. He felt that Disney is currently posting more accurate wait times than in the past and they are less "over-inflated" than in prior years.

I put this to the test last week and did find his hypothesis to be correct. Posted waits, especially during the daytime hours, were usually very accurate. The inflated wait times started to pop up about 2 hours before closing time on the headliner attractions, but these times were generally 2x the actual wait and not up to 4x like they have been in the past.

I know Disney can't talk about it in public, but it's one of the great Operations Research projects of the last few years. I hope the folks who worked on it get recognized internally.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

I know Disney can't talk about it in public, but it's one of the great Operations Research projects of the last few years. I hope the folks who worked on it get recognized internally.

Our research project was a bit less scientific. Take the number, divide by 2 and see what happens.

Honestly, you can stand outside of these attractions, see how many guests are milling about and how many strollers are parked close by and get a pretty good indication of the wait time.