Euro Exchange Rate - Moment of Truth?

[RickW]

There have been reports by several people on this board that Disney was waiting for the Euro exchange rate to drop to a certain point, and at that point, the third ship plans would start rolling.

The value mentioned was $1.24.

Well, guess what?

As of right now, the Euro ecxhange rate is: 1.236
(And it was even a bit lower earlier, dropping down to nearly $1.23)

I guess we will be finding out if those rumors were true after all.

 

[RickW]

Well, as of this exact moment, the Euro is below $1.23, and still appears to be falling.

 

[KaitlinsMom]

This will be interesting to watch and see - hmmmmm......

 

[jgalecpa]

I follow foreign exchange rates quite closely.

I don't know where the $1.24 came from, but I can't see that as sufficiently low enough to turn a decision.

I would imagine that rates would have to fall a full 20% from the $1.30+ highs to make that much of a difference in the decision.

that would mean a drop of about 25 cents or so.

I don't think you will see much movement until you are under the $1.15 mark at a minimum, and more like the 1.10 - $1.05 mark.

Before Everyone says I am crazy. I remember clearly in the last four years paying $0.88/euro and hedging them as I thought it would go up. People told me it could never go up that High, and sure enough soon the Euro was at parity ($1 = 1 euro).

Be aware I have no , nor pretend to have, inside information, just over 30 years experience dealing in foreign exchange.

I think the dollar is on a strengthening trend, though how much and how long it will last I don't know.

Remember, there are two kinds of Financial Analysts:

Those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know.

I consider myself one of the former.

Just my two Cents.

Jim

 

[RickW]

The $1.24 was reported by a couple different people on this board who said that they got the infomation from certain people at DCL. I have no information that either confirms or denies the $1.24 figure, which is why I stated at the beginning of the thread that this will be the test of the rumors.

In reading some analysis today, "experts" are saying that they don't expect the Euro to fall below $1.20 in the near future.

While it is true that $1.24 is not significantly different from the $1.30 or so it has been at recently, I could imagine a situation where DCL essentially draws a line in the sand and says that $1.24 is "good enough".

But to paraphrase Jim: I don't know

 

[rsjj]

maybe dcl will say the "go ahead", and make their announcement on july 16? (or 17? or whenever that special day was...

maybe it's just my "wishful thinking"!!