Estimate the Best Contract price we'll see

[TheDailyMoo]

I, and I think many of us feel that DVC contract prices will get to some amazing prices in the next 6-8 months. Let's guess what we think the lowest price per point numbers we'll see on the ROFR thread! In no particular order:

BLT - $95
VGF - $135
BWV - $85
BCV - $90
AKV - $80
SSR - $70
OKW - $60
Riv - $95
Poly - hard to even guess
VB - $15
BRV - $80
CCV - $105

Obviously if any of these prices come close it'll more than likely be a stripped contract but this is just for fun

 

[TinkB278]

I don’t have a guess but I hope you’re right!!

 

[jolynne28]

I'll play, but my prices will be for non stripped, I don't think stripped is really ever worth it when you factor in the value of the points you miss out on. Mine still aren't far off from yours, some I kept the same.


BLT - $95
VGF - $140
BWV - $90
BCV - $100
AKV - $85
SSR - $70
OKW - $65 (assuming they stop ROFR'ing)
Riv - $95
Poly - 150
VB - haha I'm not touching this one
BRV - $80
CCV - $100 (this is just wishful, selfish thinking)

 

[Chili327]

I, and I think many of us feel that DVC contract prices will get to some amazing prices in the next 6-8 months. Let's guess what we think the lowest price per point numbers we'll see on the ROFR thread! In no particular order:

BLT - $95
VGF - $135
BWV - $85
BCV - $90
AKV - $80
SSR - $70
OKW - $60
Riv - $95
Poly - hard to even guess
VB - $15
BRV - $80
CCV - $105

Obviously if any of these prices come close it'll more than likely be a stripped contract but this is just for fun

I'll play, but my prices will be for non stripped, I don't think stripped is really ever worth it when you factor in the value of the points you miss out on. Mine still aren't far off from yours, some I kept the same.


BLT - $95
VGF - $140
BWV - $90
BCV - $100
AKV - $85
SSR - $70
OKW - $65 (assuming they stop ROFR'ing)
Riv - $95
Poly - 150
VB - haha I'm not touching this one
BRV - $80
CCV - $100 (this is just wishful, selfish thinking)

I like the sound of both of these price lists!!
I do think we might see some really nice prices, but at the rate that small contracts are moving these days, I’m not sure anything under 100 points would get that low again.

I actually look for stripped contracts, so I have more bargaining power to make lower offers, especially if I plan on keeping it for the long haul.

 

[Sandisw]

I think most seem possible…though I still think BLT will remain higher than $100…I was at $120 floor 18 months ago and now think that $110 floor will hold for awhile

 

[JackosinDIS]

I think most seem possible…though I still think BLT will remain higher than $100…I was at $120 floor 18 months ago and now think that $110 floor will hold for awhile

I agree. I think once it’s had its refurb things will perk up a bit on the resale prices.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I agree. I think once it’s had its refurb things will perk up a bit on the resale prices.

I think the refurb will help a lot but in the next 6-8 months it'll just barely be starting and if someone needs or wants to unload I don't think the refurb will move the needle for them. Also when I make those low prediction it's also assuming the lowest price anomaly not an average price. We've all seen crazy low prices be accepted that you would normally never get anyone to agree to normally.

 

[AstroBlasters]

If this were an options market then I would take the other side of your trade outside of OKW, SSR, and AKV.

Also, I don’t consider a few distressed sellers or renting banked points part of the market price.

 

[Genie+]

My guess for next 12 months low.

17yrs $51
2042 VB - $35
2042 OKW - $55
2042 BRV - $77
2042 BWV - $95
2042 BCV - $110

29yrs $87
2054 SSR - $77

32yrs $96
2057 OKWe - $80
2057 AKV - $87

35yrs $105
2060 BLT - $100

39yrs $117
2064 VGF - $137

41yrs $123
2066 Poly - $145

43yrs $129
2068 CCV - $115

45yrs $135
2070 Riv - $105

50yrs $150
2075 CFW - $140 (because there will still be so few on the market)

I worked backwards from CFW having 50yrs left. The price listed directly after is $3/yrs left.

Made my estimates and then compared with OP. Most of them I’m around $5 higher, but I have a few $ lower OKW/BRV/VGF.

 

[matt and beth]

If anyone has a VB they want to sell for $15 let me know.

 

[Chili327]

My guess for next 12 months low.

17yrs $51
2042 BRV - $77
2042 BWV - $95
2042 BCV - $110

29yrs $87
2054 SSR - $77

32yrs $96
2057 AKV - $87

35yrs $105
2060 BLT - $100

41yrs $123
2066 Poly - $145

43yrs $129
2068 CCV - $115

I worked backwards from CFW having 50yrs left. The price listed directly after is $3/yrs left.

Made my estimates and then compared with OP. Most of them I’m around $5 higher, but I have a few $ lower OKW/BRV/VGF.

What is the number right next to the years left? (I see an explanation, but I'm still confused)

I'm loving some of these prices though, maybe I just need to start saving now, so I'm ready to take advantage when they get here.

 

[pzw90]

What is the number right next to the years left? (I see an explanation, but I'm still confused)

I'm loving some of these prices though, maybe I just need to start saving now, so I'm ready to take advantage when they get here.

I think they said it’s how many years left times $3. 17 years x $3 = $51

 

[Chili327]

I think they said it’s how many years left times $3. 17 years x $3 = $51

Yea, that is basically what they said... but why? lol
What does it mean, & how does it transfer over to actual value... why $3?

 

[Genie+]

What is the number right next to the years left? (I see an explanation, but I'm still confused)

I'm loving some of these prices though, maybe I just need to start saving now, so I'm ready to take advantage when they get here.

I think they said it’s how many years left times $3. 17 years x $3 = $51

Yes. I used $3/yr as a price benchmark to make comparing the pricing a little easier.

 

[Genie+]

Yea, that is basically what they said... but why? lol
What does it mean, & how does it transfer over to actual value... why $3?

Good question actually. It’s just something that helps me get a ballpark for having more or less years.

With so many different expirations it’s hard to keep track of the different lengths. The $3/yr price is near the low of (WDW) resale, and it helps me by starting with a consistent ‘length value’, then +/- from there considering dues, resort size, demand, etc.

 

[Genie+]

So I guess the question becomes… should there be a length value?

 

[Chili327]

Good question actually. It’s just something that helps me get a ballpark for having more or less years.

With so many different expirations it’s hard to keep track of the different lengths. The $3/yr price is near the low of (WDW) resale, and it helps me by starting with a consistent ‘length value’, then +/- from there considering dues, resort size, demand, etc.

Gotcha, i just wasn't sure if it related to anything in particular, but i understand what you mean, its gives a value based on an avg.

So I guess the question becomes… should there be a length value?

I think so... Technically the value is definitely greater when there is more left, whether you plan to use to end date, or plan to sell the value is there regardless.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Also, I don’t consider a few distressed sellers or renting banked points part of the market price.

This is definitely not a prediction of average prices. I wanted to predict the lowest contract ppp we’d see pop up on the ROFR thread (or anywhere else just not sure where else we would get that info since the savviest shoppers are on these boards).

 

[TheDailyMoo]

2042 BCV - $110

I got my contract last year for $105 so I think you may be a little too high on this one. I think we see anomaly sales that approach 90 for Beach Club in the next 6-8 months. Otherwise I like your guesses!

Also agree that any surprisingly low price would more than likely be for 150 or more point contracts. Just a fun experiment to see what numbers people predict.

Also if anyone wants to do Aulani and the California resorts feel free to add. I don’t have a good enough handle on those prices.

 

[MISCdisney21]

Anyone think ROFR gets back in action to keep prices from dropping too much?

Know there’s a lot of inventory but they were selling what AKL, OKW and SSR with incentives? Maybe they buy back some of those to try to sell themselves.