Early 'Pearl Harbor' Results

[Another Voice]

It’s not a bomb yet just because that tiny propeller is still spinning...

Initial projections show an opening weekend of about $62 million, with a total holiday take of between $76 - $84 million. While that’s a lot of money, that’s considerable below Hollywood’s projections of $100 million and way off of Eisner’s forecasted $115 million (and his boasted $135 million). It’s also well behind ‘Jurassic Park: The Lost World” – the record holder for a three-day weekend box office at about $91 million.

Worse, only a part of the box office goes to Disney. The “box office” is the total ticket sales; that money is split between the studio and the theater. The spilt is usually about 55% to the studio, 45% to the theater, it’s really a little more complicated but this assumption will work here. Disney’s take from ‘PH’ this weekend is probably around $45 million. The box office take usually also falls between 30% and 50% per week, meaning Disney’s share next week, and a normal two-day weekend, will be about $12 million. Cut that in half the next week, and the week after that, and so on. It’s going to a struggle for Disney to recoup it’s $250 million investment.

The reviews are still overwhelmingly bad. I checked may favorite source on the internet (www.rottentomatoes.com). I like them because they carry the largest number of reviews of any site that I’ve seen – and they’re just reviews, despite the name the site doesn’t take a stand on way or the other on a movie. Right now, ‘Pearl Harbor’ stands at 26% favorable. For comparison, ‘Armageddon’ was at 53% favorable and ‘Titanic’ came in at 87% favorable. The review from the ‘LA Times’ was the only major media source to give an unqualified positive review.

On the rumor side, the movie’s screenwriter (Randall Wallace, who also wrote ‘Braveheart’) is now speaking out against the movie’s director (Michael Bay). Basically that Bay brought in other writers and weakened the love story, changed the dialogue, and to put in more explosions. This tiff also comes after Bay’s swipes at Michael Eisner. Infighting between the major players of a film usually means that they know there’s a big problem. By the way, the “.. and then all of THIS happened” line is the butt of every joke in Hollywood this weekend. I’ll post some of the better ones later.

Anyway, sorry for all of the numbers. I had a professor back in college who had a great saying, “The only truth in the universe is mathematics. Everything else is just a matter of opinion.” Whether you like the movie or not, there’s no getting around its box office.

P.S.
I’ve tried to avoid writing a critique of this movie, but I think everyone can guess my feelings toward it. My biggest concern is that Disney’s marketing machine is trying to turn this movie into a patriotic tribute to American service people, and trying to turn seeing this movie into a patriotic duty. It’s not, this movie is a silly action film that cares more for its special effects explosions than for the people it is trying to portray.

I humbly suggest that in addition to seeing ‘Pearl Harbor’, you also find a broadcast or a copy of ‘Dear America: Letters Home From Vietnam’. A film by HBO made in 1988, it has dozens of well-known actors reading actual letters from service people in the war. Every moment of this film is filled with the true emotion, the true respect, the true honor that is missing from the three-hour long ‘Pearl Harbor’. It’s last letter, from a mother to her dead son and left at the memorial in Washington, is the single most poignant commentary about war that I have ever heard. This women, writing from the heart, was able to express in a few paragraphs the anguish and pride that all of America should feel. Watch ‘Dear America’ and you will know the experience of war. Watch ‘Pearl Harbor’ and you only see $135 million in toys from Hollywood.

 

[Testtrack321]

Poor AV, poor AV. IT IS A GREAT MOVIE AND IS WORTH IT! Plus it is really patriotic to the ninth degree!

 

[JeffH]

I just read a box office report on IWON.com and it paints a completely different picture.
Realizing that this is a long movie, which limits the number of shows per screen, and therefore how much it 'theoretically' can make, Pearl Harbor will easily beat the previous 'long movie' record holder, Private Ryan. It reports that the movies 3 hour running time kept it from breaking the box office records.
As far as Eisner's supposed 135 mil prediction, Disney's ACTUAL statements were
"Disney officials said the forecasts had been wildly extravagant and the company had always been restrained about making bold predictions.

It was "mathematically impossible" for the film to gross $100 million over four days, as some people had been predicting, said Disney distribution president Chuck Viane.

"It's never, ever been possible to do a $100 million weekend (with a three-hour film)," Viane said.

I have found over the years that critics are generally FoS, it's what the people think that really matters and this is what seems to be the case:
"The film was playing to sellout crowds, scoring highly in exit polls and pulling in a surprisingly high share of women."

 

[Pixieduster]

There was guite a mixed crowd of people at the show we saw. We had an older couple sitting in front of us and they really enjoyed the film. Behind us we had three teenage girls who were sobbing throughout a good part of the movie. I think that this movie has something that will appeal to everyone.
I'm sure there are many people who will not see this movie based on the bad reviews early on. I always make up my own mind about a film and I'm glad I went.

 

[Another Voice]

JeffH, glad to see you back (even if we are going to have one of our rare disagreements).

First, I just checked and Disney is not going to release the traditional Sunday numbers. That is not a good sign. Through Saturday, the film made less than $40 million and estimates for the four-day take are now tracking to a lower $75-$78 million.

Disney knew that a three-hour film would be a problem, that’s why the contract they made with the theaters both increased the number of screens the movie was to be on and mandated special “early and late” show times. There was no “mathematical impossibilities” here – Disney is far too smart for that one. I read the spokesman’s statement and it’s standard-issue Hollywood damage control (flavored with a few out-and-out lies). Nothing kills a movie faster than by being labeled a stinker its opening week. And no studio ever makes a public prediction about weekend grosses, but that doesn’t stop them from boasting in private (which Mr. Eisner tends to do and where the $135 million figure came from).

I never said that ‘Pearl Harbor’ was going to completely tank. Given a big enough marketing campaign, you can get any movie to have a huge opening weekend. After that, it’s up to the film itself as measured by the reviews and word-of-mouth to keep making the money. Eighty million dollars is a lot of money. Of course, they spent much, much more money on this film as well as betting the studio on a strong performance. If the film goes down, the new round of cost cutting will make losing the boats, entertainment and park hours at WDW seem like nothing.

And that’s something we can both agree is a bad thing.

 

[JeffH]

Did you actually see the film and dislike it, or are you just jumping on the bandwagon of Disney bashers?
Disney has won the box office for 6 of the last 7 years, and critics love to bash the best (that's how they sell themselves, and get famous). I've seen many undeserving movies killed by moron critics and "bad" press. A lot of talented people worked hard to make this an entertaining movie, please give it a chance.

 

[MikeS]

Jeff
Not to paint a different picture the theater I saw it at was largely empty and I saw it and while the attack was fantastic the picture stunk imho. There will be little repeat business. I say under 200 Million overall.

 

[Captain Crook]

JeffH hit my point (in the thread I tried starting), is this just once again "Bashing" the Mouse? Even your projected figures don't seem too bad, in fact approaching 100 million seems good (but I'm no expert).

You (AV) have repeated that it will ultimately be word of mouth which carries this film and from what I've heard the masses are loving it. MikeS just reported that he didn't (as well as the first empty theatre review I've heard) and I suspect you don't but everyone else here has. Our local news (not ABC) has had lobby interviews every night and I heard one "lukewarm" review and all the rest positives. The reports I'm seeing say the theatres are jammed packed...What elses is there if the seats are full? It still looks to me like Disney has a winner on their hands despite critical objection...Or maybe foul play?

Lastly, regarding the length, I read theat many theatre operators requested more copies for show on smaller screens and Disney said no, they didn't want to decrease the "big screen effect" for the viewers...Hardly sounds like the Disney picture we see painted so often...

As for Eisners prediction...Well, that report sounds a little Jum Hillish doesn't it?

 

[Another Voice]

I have seen ‘Pearl Harbor’ a total of four times over the last month or so – including last night with an audience (about a third full). The reaction was luke warm and about what I expected. This movie is extremely commercial, filled with time-tested ways of tugging the heart strings of an audience. Some of it always works and it worked last night.

As for the reaction shown on television, that’s rarely an indication of what people are going to tell their friends in private. How would you react if someone shoved a camera and lights in your face and demanded an instant judgment that would be seen by all your friends and neighbors? And if you’re the producer of the local news, which makes better television – a guy drowning on about “the love story is trite without wit or substance”, or a group of N*Sync fans bouncing up and down, squealing about how dreamy Josh Hoshnett is? ‘The Mummy Returns’ also got huge favorable ratings it first week – and then lost 60% of its box office the next weekend. The true test of word of mouth isn’t what people say as they leave the theater, it’s how many of their friends they convince to see the movie the next weekend. And that’s going to be the test for ‘Pearl Harbor’ as well.

The ‘big screen’ effect had nothing to do with the film’s presentation. Disney’s contract mandated that the film be shown in the theater’s biggest auditoriums because that’s where the most seats are. In most complexes, the biggest theater has more seats than two of the smaller theaters combined. This was part of the strategy to guarantee big box office – and also a way of squeezing out the competition. Also, a print of ‘Pearl Harbor’ probably costs Disney about $50,000, so the fewer they have to make the better.

I don’t see the negative critical response against ‘Pearl’ as Disney bashing. If anything the response has been very mild compared to some recent giga-hyped blockbusters like ‘Godzilla’. And if ‘Planet of the Apes’ or ‘A.I.’ turn out to be bad movies, you’ll see the all the same negativity as well. What the reaction is against is the unwarranted hype that Disney surrounded this movie with. The expectations were enormous and Disney ran around telling everyone that this wasn’t just a major movie – this was an IMPORTANT film. This was a film like ‘Platoon’ or ‘Patton’ – a movie that would define history for a new generation. Instead what everyone saw was a bad popcorn action flick with a few ego-stroking moments of “what a great filmmaker am I” thrown in.

Disney’s problem isn’t organized bashing against them (“The Vast Anti-Mouse Conspiracy”?), it’s that they haven’t made anything good in a long time. If they’d just try to make good movies, people would respond. There wasn’t bigger joke in Hollywood before Eisner took over then a live-action Disney film (anyone remember ‘The Cat From Outer Space’?) – and that was turned completely around by making good movies. They’ve won the box office banner simply by releasing the most pictures of any studios – a tactic they can no longer afford to do. It’s time they again tried quality over quantity.

And lastly - a $100 million is a lot of money, but if it costs you $200 million to get it, are you really coming out ahead?

 

[Coronado Williams]

Originally posted by Another Voice
They’ve won the box office banner simply by releasing the most pictures of any studios – a tactic they can no longer afford to do.

Confirms my suspicions, then. From Exhibitor Relations data so far, it appears Disney will not be #1 this year. Thank you, AV, your insight is always fascinating and unequalled in accuracy and intelligence.

 

[degenerationxwwfwdw1]

Well Pearl Harbor was really everything it promised and more. I think this is the one movie to see this summer. Great acting, great action, suprisingly great love story. and the most unfairly reviewed movie of the year. If you dont leave this movie being proud to be an American there is something wrong with you. This movie deserves every penny it makes. Now I hope that money doesnt have to make up for Atlantis. Atlantis dosent look like it will make a large amount of money (I hope I'm wrong).

 

[Bob O]

Comparing Pearl Harbor to the Letters from vietnam is comparing apples to oranges. Pearl Harbor is basically a love movie based around the attack and i dont think it was meant to be a defining movie like Saving Private Ryan. I havent seen the movie yet but will do so in a week when the crowds slow down but from people ive spoken to they thought the attack/action parts were great but the love story bombed! The Mummy Returns is on target to make more money than the original which isnt usually the case and in fact from what ive read made more money than Pearl harbor over the 3 day weekend numbers. From people ive spoken to few will see it again until its out on video or a budget theatre.

 

[OnWithTheShow]

BTW the theater I saw it in was showing it in 3 400 seat theaters and a 800 seat theater all at the same time (1030PM) and there were few empty seats in any of the theaters.

 

[Pixieduster]

Apparantly, the negative reviews have had a very large effect on how many people have gone out to see this movie. I have talked to several people over the last couple of days where the subject of this movie has come up. One person told me "don't go see Pearl Harbor" I asked if they had seen it. They said no, that they heard it was terrible. Several other people had stated that they were not going to see it because of the bad reviews. I hardly ever listen to reviews. Often times I find I end up liking many of the movies that get negative reviews. It's obvious from reading these boards, that some really liked this movie and others didn't as is the case with most movies. I don't think we'll ever "prove" one way or another if this movie is good or bad, because it's a matter of personal taste. One thing that is certain is that it did not and is not going to do as well as was hoped due to the bad publicity is has received.

 

[Captain Crook]

Voice, I didn't mean to imply that if the movie made 100 mil that would be good, certainly you don't think me that niave, but if it appproaches 100 mil for the 3 day holiday, then that couldn't be a bad start, could it? Now as you've stated, you don't think it'll hit that mark and I believe you know a lot about this, but the numbers aren't in yet...

Also you commented to the reaction on television that I spoke of, but I must disagree because here in So. Fl. I see people bash the movies quite often on these big premieres. But it hasn't happened with PH, I haven't seen the report for tonight yet...

As for word of mouth, I agree that will be the test, but again from what I'm reading from across America, not just tinsel town, people seem enthusiastic...

The big screen effect was reported in an article I read with the head of Buena Vista Distributing saying they refused the extra copies due to the presentation factor I mentioned...

As for Disney not making any good movies, I just can't see that. Was not Sixth Sense Disney to name one...

 

[JeffH]

Disney wins the box office every year because they put out good movies, with several breaking the 100Mil mark every year. It's the competition that releases the shallow films, that if they would take the crown that should be questioned. Disney doesn't win the bo crown based on weak, goofball, or teen sex films, and rarely puts out a stinker (Mission to Mars), Disney generally puts out good family entertainment (except for Pulp Fiction).

 

[Another Voice]

Well, the final numbers are in: $75.1 million for the four day weekend. That’s lower than the low end of pre-release estimates and will be a huge disappointment to the company (they’ll claim otherwise to Wall Street). That makes the opening receipts far lower than the Memorial Day weekend opening for ‘Jurassic Park: The Lost World” and about the same level as last year’s ‘Mission: Impossible 2’. The three-day total “normal weekend” total for ‘Pearl Harbor’ was less then the first weekend for ‘The Mummy Returns’. The opening is still the highest ever for a non-sequel movie, but it came at a tremendous marketing cost.

Disney’s job right now is to avoid the perception that this film is a looser. You’re going to see several Disney spokespeople on TV tomorrow spinning that this was better than they hoped, and Michael Bay will be talking to anyone who answers his call to say that he’s “just thrilled” to have such a hit on his hand. To goal is get people to disregard the reviews and the news and to go see the movie next week. As a quick aside, the newspaper ads out here for ‘Pearl Harbor’ do not include any quotes from critics. Is this just an L.A. thing or is this happening everywhere else as well?

Until some weekday numbers come in, it’s going to be hard to do some final projections. My guess is that the total domestic take will be just less than $200 million. Working through the numbers, this film could still make a very slight profit. But that’s only after its home video release. And that’s counting on a “normal” international box office; I have serious doubts about its performance in Europe and Japan. All of the American flag-waving and the inept love story will kill the film in Europe and the “challenging” subject matter makes it iffy for Japan. If next week’s box office is $35 million or less, this film will be a looser; if it’s over $45 million it will okay.

Thanks for reminding me of ‘The Sixth Sense’; my statement shall be modified. That film is also a case where the critics rescued a Disney film. It had almost no public interest until the extremely positive reviews got people into the theaters and a major hit was born. Reviews cut both way. Funny how no one ever claims there a plot to overly praise a film, but everyone believes that the critics are always out to “get” someone.

One last bit about the numbers – ‘Shrek’ had an incredible weekend. It’s three-day totals went UP from last week. This rarely, rarely happens (even over a holiday for a “family movie”). It’s two week total is now well over $100 million. Some of the demographics are showing a fairly high repeat viewing. There’s now a chance that ‘Shrek’ will outperform ‘Pearl Harbor’ at the box office. And won’t that be a dark day in the perfect Kingdom of Duloc?


P.S. Bob O – I agree that ‘Pearl Harbor’ and ‘Dear America’ are two vastly different films (in many ways). My comments were in response to Disney trying to sell ‘Pearl’ as some kind of noble tribute to veterans on Memorial Day. I find that marketing tactic to be offensive and the fact that so many are buying it to be very sad.

 

[Another Voice]

Sorry JeffH, our postings must have past each other in the ether. Last year’s B.O. crown was won with this stunning line-up: ‘Coyote Ugly’, ‘Duets’, ‘Gunshy’, ‘High Fidelity’, ‘Gone in Sixty Seconds’, ‘The Crew’, ‘Unbreakable’, ‘Shanghai Noon’, ‘O Brother Where Art Thou?’, and the ever kid friendly ‘Hellraiser: Inferno’.

This year’s list includes ‘Daddy and Them’ (it’s rated R – I’ll leave the rest up to you), ‘Double Take’, ‘Mullohalland Drive’, ‘Just Visiting’, and again for the kiddies – ‘Hellraiser: Hellseeker’. Oh, and I forgot ‘Committed’, where the movie poster features a young women “flipping off” the viewer. Sadly, many newspapers around the country did not find the good family entertainment value in this and refused to run the ad.

Disney right now is no worse – and no better – than any of the other major Hollywood studios.

 

[wdwguide]

Originally posted by Another Voice
Well, the final numbers are in: $75.1 million for the four day weekend. That’s lower than the low end of pre-release estimates and will be a huge disappointment to the company (they’ll claim otherwise to Wall Street).

75 million is an incredible number for this movie after only four days. That means more than half the production costs and more than a third of the total cost have already been recovered.
It looks as if the movie will be quite profitable after its domestic release, and after that it will boost revenue as it is released abroad and on video/DVD.

Claiming the it is a flop because it didn't break Jurassic Park 2's record is ridiculous.

 

[Another Voice]

The studio only gets half of the box office take - the theaters keep the rest. So Disney is only going to keep about $40 million. And the box office will drop 35%-50% each weekend from here out. It's a long road to make $200+ million.