Right here
Morning magic when it was a full hour and a single park while drawing a crowd didn't draw even close to that sort of attention.
Yes I know you are trying to say it's spread across all 4 parks but as of 2 years ago those wanting extra magic hours would have been consolidated to a single park. Did you ever see a 50% in participation? Why all of a sudden when it's every day and every park would people go out of their way to use it consistently when they never bothered in the past.
I just don't see any logic to these theoretical numbers of 50% guest participation. With every park every day for 30 mins you should actually see a fair reduction in usage per park with an overall small uptick across all the parks.
Maybe 5% used it historically (5k visitors) so now you might see 8% use it or roughly 2k people per park. Also I am talking about people who actually use it and get there early not sleep in or can't get a bus. Disney IMO couldn't even transport 50k people to the parks for the early access.
Example at AK Resort by your math:
1644 Resort Rooms
3 Guests Per Room
90% Capacity
4438 Guests at AK Resorts
50% Utilization of morning hours
2219 Guests going to parks
555 Guests per Park (less to HS and more elsewhere)
WDW Bus Capacity (normal times) 130 guests
5 Busses (pretty much at capacity)
Now to make it more interesting:
Busses will likely run for a 9am MK opening starting at 7:30am (1hr prior to early hours start time)
5 busses from AK Resort between 7:30am and 8:10am for MK (two trips to MK in a 40 mins window not really possible for the biggest resorts at WDW - AK, POP, AoA, All Stars)
1 bus every 8 minutes arriving at AK in that 1hr to 20min prior to early access
Now think of All Stars running with 330% more rooms (possibly with more guests per room as well since its more family/group oriented but we will keep math flat). You are talking about 16-17 busses within a 40 min space in that magic zone of 1hr-20min prior to park opening.
I don't think that many people are going to use this daily or that Disney would even have the busses to transport that number of people around.
Flaw in the math: I dont think you are cramming 130 guests on a bus. That capacity limit is in theory and will be reduced via needing to load scooters and strollers. So you could end up needing more like 7 or 8 busses or 1 bus every 5 to 6 minutes.
I agree with you that the number of onsite guests who will take advantage of early entry will be far lower that 50k.
Proof is in AK. Before Covid the park used to open 40 minutes before scheduled time to let people in and start loading on FoP. Almost everyone who was at the entrance at that time went straight to FoP, very few to River Journey and almost no one to the other attractions, because they started loading at park opening so it was pointless.
After the initial rush, FoP would have an average of 90 minutes line (when full capacity was available). If FoP capacity is 2000 people per hour (not sure, probably less), it means there were around 3000 people at the gates 40 minutes before opening. Those included both offsite and onsite. Since offsite guests were more likely shut out of booking a FP+ for FoP, we can reasonably say that onsite guests hadn't a smaller incentive to be at the gate super early to ride it. But even if half of those were onsite guests, it's still 1500 and not 10,000.
That's why I hope early entry will be actually a very good perk for onsite guests, if it will really be possible to ride an headliner and then queue for another ride before offsite guests enter the park.
Of course, the prospect of the paid LL might force more onsite guests to take advantage of early entry. Also, the early opening at AK was not advertized by Disney, while early entry will be prominent so more people will take advantage. At this points, no one really knows, not even Disney, since they're not launching it in time for the start of the 50th (it seems or we would have more details by now).