Early Morning Hours is it really a perk?

[keishashadow]

They have done Early EMH for years, so it is likely they will implement a similar system. Everyone will be able to get through the turnstiles, but off-site guests you won't be able to get past the spot where they filter on-site guests through to the attractions.

If you think about a standard morning rope drop, 30 minutes ahead of the crowd is huge. Even if I only get on 1-2 attractions, we can hopefully stay slightly ahead of the wave so we can continue to enjoy minimal waits longer. We won't really know, though, until it happens.

I don’t understand why they wouldn’t designate certain turnstiles for onsite & off in this instance.
Akin to The AP ones in place now

 

[Nabas]

It’s a pretty big advantage. Tokyo only has 15 minutes but that allows you to bypass all the offsite guests waiting for the park to open and walk onto a headline attraction right at opening.

If you think about a standard morning rope drop, 30 minutes ahead of the crowd is huge. Even if I only get on 1-2 attractions, we can hopefully stay slightly ahead of the wave so we can continue to enjoy minimal waits longer. We won't really know, though, until it happens.

Let's look at some numbers to put this in perspective:

• Disney Deluxe Villas (a.k.a. DVC): 3904 to 5448 (depends on how lock-offs are booked)
• Disney Deluxe Resorts: 4979
• Disney Moderate Resorts: 7385
• Disney Value Resorts: 10,408
• Disney Campsites: 800
• Disney Good Neighbor Hotels: 8529

Total rooms available for early entry: 37,549

Pre-COVID, WDW averaged about 90% occupancy, or about 33,800.

Assuming an average of 3 per room (some rooms will have 4, some 2, and some suites might have even more), that means there are about 100,000 Guests eligible for early entry.

Let's assume only half (50,000) actually take advantage of early entry and, for simplicity's sake, let's just divide them equally among all 4 parks. That works out to 12,500 Guests using early entry per park.

Let's assume an even smaller number (10,000) for DHS since it is the smallest park.

ROTR has a ride capacity of about 1500 per hour. MMRR is a bit more, SDD a bit less. Those three attractions are going to attract most morning Guests, and they handle only 4500 per hour, which is less than half of the onsite Guests who might arrive for early morning entry.

The short of it is that even onsite Guests are going to end up waiting anywhere from 0 to 60 minutes for their first ride, with the average being around 30 minutes (or perhaps more for the 3 newer attractions).

 

[zavandor]

Let's look at some numbers to put this in perspective:

• Disney Deluxe Villas (a.k.a. DVC): 3904 to 5448 (depends on how lock-offs are booked)
• Disney Deluxe Resorts: 4979
• Disney Moderate Resorts: 7385
• Disney Value Resorts: 10,408
• Disney Campsites: 800
• Disney Good Neighbor Hotels: 8529

Total rooms available for early entry: 37,549

Pre-COVID, WDW averaged about 90% occupancy, or about 33,800.

Assuming an average of 3 per room (some rooms will have 4, some 2, and some suites might have even more), that means there are about 100,000 Guests eligible for early entry.

Let's assume only half (50,000) actually take advantage of early entry and, for simplicity's sake, let's just divide them equally among all 4 parks. That works out to 12,500 Guests using early entry per park.

Let's assume an even smaller number (10,000) for DHS since it is the smallest park.

ROTR has a ride capacity of about 1500 per hour. MMRR is a bit more, SDD a bit less. Those three attractions are going to attract most morning Guests, and they handle only 4500 per hour, which is less than half of the onsite Guests who might be be arriving for early morning entry.

The short of it is that even onsite Guests are going to end up waiting anywhere from 0 to 60 minutes for their first ride, with the average being around 30 minutes (or perhaps more for the 3 newer attractions).

It's an excellent analysis, but I'm not sure what you were trying to prove
In my opinion It shows how important it will be for onsite guests. Someone arriving for Early entry will be able to wait an average of 30 minutes, depending on when they arrive. Someone arriving early will be able to walk on the first attraction and get a second one with not a huge wait. An offsite guest, arriving early enough to be first at the turnstile will wait 60 minutes for their first ride. Someone who arrived on time for park open but is at the back of the pack, will probably face 2 or more hours wait for an headliner.
Maybe rather than an onsite advantage, we can tag this as an offsite disadvantage.

(I do think you're overestimating a bit the number of people who will take advantage of early entry, but it's a pure guess).

 

[Nabas]

It's an excellent analysis, but I'm not sure what you were trying to prove

Just trying to show that many who take advantage of early morning hours are going to wait in line for popular attractions.

Yes, onsite guests at the very front will walk-on but most will not. For the most popular attractions, onsite guests will get, at most, one short wait in the morning. By the time they get off their first attraction, offsite guests will be in the park.

But it's still better than being offsite and walking in 30 minutes after onsite guests.

 

[jo-jo]

How early do you think you need to get to the park to take advantage of the 30 mins? Wait , wait, don't roll your eyes yet. We have done EMH before and by the time we figured out which gate is open for on site resorts and said "Excuse me" 4 thousand times cutting through lines, we've lost lots of time. With the early opening spread over 4 resorts, timing may be different than the one park method.

 

[zavandor]

How early do you think you need to get to the park to take advantage of the 30 mins? Wait , wait, don't roll your eyes yet. We have done EMH before and by the time we figured out which gate is open for on site resorts and said "Excuse me" 4 thousand times cutting through lines, we've lost lots of time. With the early opening spread over 4 resorts, timing may be different than the one park method.

It's a million dollar question.
The best case scenario is that arriving just 10 minutes before the start of Early Entry would be enough to get on one ride quickly enough to get on a second line before offsite guests enter.

 

[CraigInPA]

Without our sheepdog waking us up at dawn to herd his imaginary sheep, we like to sleep in on vacation. So, EMH in the morning doesn't help us.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

Without our sheepdog waking us up at dawn to herd his imaginary sheep, we like to sleep in on vacation. So, EMH in the morning doesn't help us.

Yea, we're kinda the same way. We might use it once every other trip, if that. But that doesn't mean it's not a nice perk for those who like to be at the parks early. Go for it! Just please be quiet running down the halls of the resort early in the morning to get there!!

 

[SL6827]

I project that Disney will eventually at some point make the morning EMH a Deluxe resort only perk as well.

 

[sethschroeder]

Also really what is a half hour going to give you in a park like AK?

That's the best park. Through Flight of Passage and in line for Na'vi before the regular crowd hits.

It basically gets you a 1-3 ride jump start on the biggest rides in the park each day.

Additonally since it's not just a single park the crowds will be disppearsed instead of consolidated to the extra magic morning park.

 

[sethschroeder]

The short of it is that even onsite Guests are going to end up waiting anywhere from 0 to 60 minutes for their first ride, with the average being around 30 minutes (or perhaps more for the 3 newer attractions).

Dont buy it because I think your math is way off for how many people show up for park opening.

By your math 50k people would have been at MK opening during extra magic hours in the past which just wasn't the case.

 

[sethschroeder]

Yea, we're kinda the same way. We might use it once every other trip, if that. But that doesn't mean it's not a nice perk for those who like to be at the parks early. Go for it! Just please be quiet running down the halls of the resort early in the morning to get there!!

For us based in our last trip even without early access yet we learned to just rope drop and leave by 11am.

We focused on a single top ride each day and went with the flow the rest of the day. We still got an advantage since we got to the gate before off-site was allowed to park.

I see us doing MK, HS, AK as our day parks and like normal doing Epcot in the evening with just 1-2 rides before eating dinner there.

 

[Nabas]

Dont buy it because I think your math is way off for how many people show up for park opening.

By your math 50k people would have been at MK opening during extra magic hours in the past which just wasn't the case.

50k at the Magic Kingdom? Where are you getting that from?

By my math, I explicitly stated that perhaps 50k would show up for morning Extra Magic Hours at all 4 theme parks combined. By my math, 15k-20k would show up early for MK (since it is the most popular theme park).

Prior to COVID, attractions such as Slinky Dog Dash and Seven Dwarfs Mine Train would start the morning with hour-long waits.

During my last morning Extra Magic Hours at Epcot, I waited 50 minutes for Test Track.

A ride such as Flights of Passage would start the morning with a 2-hour wait.

The Magic Kingdom’s advantage is that it has, by far, the most attractions. However, long lines form at the other 3 theme parks’ most popular attractions almost immediately after opening. And, as the Magic Kingdom’s most in-demand attraction, a long line would form at Seven Dwarfs Mine Train during morning Extra Magic Hours

With the most popular attractions handling less than 2000 guests per hour, it doesn’t take a lot of guests to create long waits first thing in the morning.

 

[sethschroeder]

50k at the Magic Kingdom? Where are you getting that from?

By my math, I explicitly stated that perhaps 50k would show up for morning Extra Magic Hours at all 4 theme parks combined. By my math, 15k-20k would show up early for MK (since it is the most popular theme park).

Right here

Let's assume only half (50,000) actually take advantage of early entry and, for simplicity's sake

Morning magic when it was a full hour and a single park while drawing a crowd didn't draw even close to that sort of attention.

Yes I know you are trying to say it's spread across all 4 parks but as of 2 years ago those wanting extra magic hours would have been consolidated to a single park. Did you ever see a 50% in participation? Why all of a sudden when it's every day and every park would people go out of their way to use it consistently when they never bothered in the past.

I just don't see any logic to these theoretical numbers of 50% guest participation. With every park every day for 30 mins you should actually see a fair reduction in usage per park with an overall small uptick across all the parks.

Maybe 5% used it historically (5k visitors) so now you might see 8% use it or roughly 2k people per park. Also I am talking about people who actually use it and get there early not sleep in or can't get a bus. Disney IMO couldn't even transport 50k people to the parks for the early access.

Example at AK Resort by your math:
1644 Resort Rooms
3 Guests Per Room
90% Capacity
4438 Guests at AK Resorts

50% Utilization of morning hours
2219 Guests going to parks
555 Guests per Park (less to HS and more elsewhere)

WDW Bus Capacity (normal times) 130 guests
5 Busses (pretty much at capacity)

Now to make it more interesting:
Busses will likely run for a 9am MK opening starting at 7:30am (1hr prior to early hours start time)
5 busses from AK Resort between 7:30am and 8:10am for MK (two trips to MK in a 40 mins window not really possible for the biggest resorts at WDW - AK, POP, AoA, All Stars)
1 bus every 8 minutes arriving at AK in that 1hr to 20min prior to early access

Now think of All Stars running with 330% more rooms (possibly with more guests per room as well since its more family/group oriented but we will keep math flat). You are talking about 16-17 busses within a 40 min space in that magic zone of 1hr-20min prior to park opening.

I don't think that many people are going to use this daily or that Disney would even have the busses to transport that number of people around.

Flaw in the math: I dont think you are cramming 130 guests on a bus. That capacity limit is in theory and will be reduced via needing to load scooters and strollers. So you could end up needing more like 7 or 8 busses or 1 bus every 5 to 6 minutes.

 

[sethschroeder]

A ride such as Flights of Passage would start the morning with a 2-hour wait.

Which is normal for a standard park day back in 2019 with no restriction on entrance. Additionally the daily park attendance at Animal Kingdom in 2019 was 38,000.

A 2 hour wait with the rides throughput would be roughly about 2800-2900 guests arriving at opening to just ride Flight of Passage. What percentage of guests showing up at early access would be going to FOP? 75%? By that math we are talking about 3800 guests entering AK not the 12,500 suggested.

If you had 75% of AK early access guests going to FOP based on your math (12500 guests per park) you would see a 9375 heading right to the ride leading to around a 6 1/2 hour wait at park opening. If it was just 50% heading to FOP it would be just shy of a 4 1/2 hour wait.

 

[Skywalker3]

we've been rope dropping since 2000, and taking advantage of EMH every trip, since they started that. It's a great advantage. BUT it should be an hour, not 1/2 hour. We are glad that it'll be daily at every park, instead of what it used to be (like Monday is AK morning, Tuesday MK evening, Wed HS morning, or whatever, ) I still have our lists/notebooks/plans w all the EMH, and we planned days around that. We are NOT morning people, at all, except at Disney. We never get up that early at home, but EMH in the AM and rope dropping is great at getting on rides. One trip, DH and DS rode Space mtn 5 times in a row, another time EE 6 times, been second in line at FoP, been on and off FoP at 2 mins past official opening, lots of time to hit other rides, Been on the first train at BTMRR, been on /off Slinky in 20 mins while others did ToT multiple times, etc etc. I remember back in the day, just being asked to show room card, or at least just 1 person from the group showed it. Hopefully they'll set up separate areas/turnstiles to quick entry/scanning. Our dynamics have changed somewhat, so we're also looking forward to the evening hours for DVC/deluxe. Hope to try those out soon.

 

[Boopuff]

You guys lost me at “math” I’ll personally be one of those passing on this perk. the Sloth is my spirit animal and waking at the crack of dawn on vacation to participate in the “running of the mountains“ holds zero appeal. However, ill be on board with the evening hours for sure!

 

[sethschroeder]

BUT it should be an hour, not 1/2 hour.

The new system is already a large increase in the number of hours of operation officially. We still don't know if they will keep opening early or really stick to just 30 mins early.

Example random week in June 2019 (9th to 15th):
9th: 1hr HS Early
10th: 1hr AK Early
11th: None
12th: 2hr MK Late
13th: 1hr Epcot Early
14th: 1hr MK Early
15th: 1hr AK Early
7 Hours

New System:
14 hours

Additionally with it being every park every day it will absolutely spread the crowds since a key tip in the past was avoiding the extra magic parks for lower crowds. Now instead of everyone crowding MK on the 14th for the only morning hours they can pick and choose including taking advantage of early hours in MK on 2 or 3 or 4 days during the week.

Also means more flexibility instead of now being stuck with early hours being in one park while your reservations are in another park.

 

[CWTC]

Any idea how they are going to separate hotel guests from non hotel guests? You kind of lose the advantage if you have to queue up behind a bunch of non hotel guests. Will there be separate holding pens or turnstyles?

 

[ParklandDISDad]

As long as they only let onsite guests in 30 minutes early, it could save you a lot of time at FoP and RoTR. The real issue will be if the park opens officially at 9. You get in at 8:30 staying onsite and then they let everyone in at 8:45.You have some benefit, but lost some.
I wonder how strict they will be with opening times? On our last trip, most parks were opening 30-45 minutes earlier than posted. If that continues to happen, that makes planning early entry more difficult.

When was you last trip? That was the case for our post shut trips in Aug, Sep, Oct, Dec, Feb, and May.. but from what I’ve heard over the last month or so they are now back to a more traditional rope drop and holding guests at the hub/sunset blvd until much closer to the official opening time.