Fraces, no problem, more than happy to try and answer DVC related questions.
If you want to stay exclusively at the GF,AKL or the Poly , then the answer is probably no, DVC is not for you. HOWEVER, the DVC resorts include Beach Club, Wilderness Lodge and Boardwalk Inn all of which are top class resorts. You're assumption that HAFH resorts are not delux resorts isn't really correct. IMHO The Beach club is a match for any of the resorts on site (the only possibily exception to that is the GF because of it's exceptional "quality restaurant" offerings, but even then the pool at the Y+B pulls back a lot of distance on the GF if you like pool time). Disney has been moving down the route of adding DVC areas to it's existing delux resorts. While SSR is an exception to this, DVC has been a huge success for Disney and there are many rumours that there are plans to continue adding DVC units to existing hotels. The Contemporary is the most regular rumour that is put around. While I'm far from convinced about it's viability, the garden wing to the Contemp has been the 2nd biggest thorn in Disney's side for many years, just behind the Disney Institute/treehouse villas. Now that SSR seems to have turned what was a huge headache for Disney into a money spinner I think it is possible that someone at Disney decides that DVC may also be the way to turn the garden wing at the Contemp from a sow's ear into a silk purse.
You can use your DVC points to stay at WDW resort hotels, you just call member services and say " I'd like to use my points at X hotel for these dates" it is, however, not a very economical use of DVC points. It would, for example, cost about 25 points to stay at a moderate resort, whereas you could stay at any of the, superior, DVC resorts from as little as 10 points per night. You get the best value for your DVC points at DVC resorts.
Also, with the amount of Annual Pass discounts and codes, I can't seem to justify the outlay..maybe I am adding it all up wrong?
Due to 9/11 ALL hotels have had to discount to get business, Disney is no exception. However it does seem the market has bounced back and with the 50 year celebrations going on this year it looks like a VERY busy year at the themeparks. Disney may feel it doesn't have to discount at aggressively as it previously has, or at all.
Like any long term purchase, DVC requires "a leap of faith" at some point. If there are large discounts and codes about, it needs a slightly bigger leap, if those codes decrease or disapear, the economic argument for DVC is easier to calculate. If you're doing a long term calculation for a "fair value" of DVC over it's 40-50 year lifetime, one has to include inflation into the equation. Hotel "rack rate" inflation has run at about 8% over the length of WDW operations. If you figure this in, most people come out with a "breakeven" figure of their outlay for DVC to be about 15-25 years. In my case it was MUCH less, but at that time Disney offered 7 years worth of free park passes to sweeten the deal, I'd guess about 5 years to break even for me. Since 1998 I have had available to me, if used carefully, up to 28 days worth of accommodation in a studio (hotel room) at OKW. The lowest this has cost me is about $750 per year, currently it's about $1,000. It means, if I'm careful my holidays cost me about $35 a night (or GBP 20) for a room on Disney. Obviously that cost will rise in line with the dues inflation. But that, historically has been lower than the rate at which hotel rates have risen, and I'm starting at $35 a night instead of $200+ or so for the best room rate available for the GF.
DVC is increadably flexible, it needs each individual to take the time to work out how (or if) they can best use the system in order to provide top class accommodation for their family at the lowest price. Often DVC doesn't provide all of a family's hotel needs, but it can certainly blunt the edge of future price rises and provide a longterm solution for a family wishing to cover some of their future needs.
