The common comment you see here is you save money vs deluxes, get better accommodations for the same money vs mods, and you won't save money vs values.
To be perfectly honest, I have never done those types of financial calculations, and I've never seen one for values vs DVC. So I don't know whether you would save money using DVC compared to values. You will have better accommodations, and you'll be better located than you will with the values.
TL;DR: Math shows the "Deluxe Villa for the same price as a Moderate" comparison is valid.
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It's not hard to do the math. Let me give you a personal example. I forget where I found the formulas for this, but it's what I use in my spreadsheet to figure out the savings per trip.
I bought 60 points at $99 a point. I have 44 years to use my points (it was an SSR contract). That means my 60 points have a cost basis of $2.25 a point ($99 / 44).
We went to Aulani in 2012 for five nights. in 2012, our dues were $4.45 a point. Add that to the cost basis, and the points "cost" us $6.70 a point that year. We used 110 points (60 banked points, plus 50 for that year). So our total cost for that trip was $736.89 (110 x $6.70). If we had paid for the cheapest room possible at Aulani at the time, it would have been
nearly $500 a night ($2,473) without a discount. Instead, it cost us about
$150 a night.
(Note: In reality, it cost us a lot less. Our first 60 points we got when we bought in September. We only had dues for the last bit of the year, so more than half the points we spent had a WAY lower cost basis, but that's math I don't care to do. It's just easier to figure it based on your current dues.)
Once you figure out your cost basis and dues, comparing against any other hotel is easy. You know how much you're paying per night. So let's use my next trip as a better example, since there are cheaper hotels to compare to ...
Cost basis stays the same, but dues are $4.70 this year, so it's $6.95 a point. We're spending 68 points for four nights at the Grand Californian. That works out to $472.60 for the trip, or just under
$120 a night. It would have cost us
$420 a night to stay there on cash. Paradise Pier is about
$120 a night. So we're staying at the Grand Californian for what it would have cost us to stay at Paradise Pier (there's your deluxe villas vs. moderate comparison). Sure, I could have stayed off-site cheaper, but look where I'm staying instead! (These are all non-discounted prices, FYI.)
My point is that it's absolutely possible to calculate your savings vs. a value resort at WDW. But it's unlikely you'll end up ahead, partly because of availability of discounts or promotions. But compared to a Deluxe resort (or potentially the moderates as well), you cannot do much better.
Bill
Seriously, you do not lose any flexibility because renting is always an option. Granted, I would not buy with the intention of renting every year, but it is great to know that that option is there. In the 4 years since we bought DVC, we have rented points twice to take cruises. This was a much better deal than cruising on points. We have also take 7 or 8 vacations in those 4 years, which we would have never taken had it not been for DVC.
