This is my theory also. Disney had to release a lot of massive discounts this year to fill hotel rooms, I think they will crack down on commercial renting up to the point where they don’t have to give 30% off and free dining, etc. I don’t know what their target occupancy and discount rates are, but I expect that enforcement will continue until they hit them. A big economic downturn could mean more enforcement and a travel boom could mean less.
I don’t think stopping spec renting will help very much at 7mo, but it should give owners more options at 11mo… also for those who don’t care about cheap rooms, remember that spec rooms being tied up causes a trickle down impact— someone who’s not in value will be in standard studio, standard studio gets bumped to savannah, and so forth. I do think it’s more of a problem for those of us who own at smaller resorts (there is no “pay more for different view” option at VGC and BCV) and those who want the lowest point rooms, but if Disney is willing to let most of their lowest point rooms go to spec renters eventually they are gonna have a problem with owners.
There are definitely areas where rebalancing would help make it less cutthroat to get certain rooms, but as long as there are rooms where you can make a lot of money, spec renters will swoop them.
I think it’s about protecting profit margins at hotels, with a marginal benefit to improving owner experience.
I don’t mean to single out this post, but there are a lot of people on the thread confidently stating that only the most dramatic, egregious examples will be punished and I don’t understand why? Maybe it’s just my risk averse lawyer instincts But I don’t understand how anyone could stay with confidence that people who rent half or more of their points won’t be targeted when Disney is indicated it doesn’t want regular or frequent rentals.
I’ve never seen where the 95% cut off is for total points, but I would be surprised if it was over 1000, I would be surprised if the first wave targeted people under 500 points, but I also wouldn’t count on it if I was renting 400 points each year.
Disney is almost certainly going after people who rent points as a “side hustle” or just one of many prongs of their business. But none of those people are renting “once in a while.”
Some will use, some will bank, some will trade, and some will lose. It would definitely make more rooms available to owners and not people using rooms to make money.
If we stopped spec renting, I do think we’d see more availability at exactly 11mo all the way down to 6.5 mo, on average, but then we’d see less availability and waitlists clearing 1-4 months out.
Once you start looking for (or coming across) confirmed rentals, it becomes clear a huge chunk of overall rooms are being used to maximize profits (based on the patterns of what’s available and the prices they charge) and tie up peak dates.
I think Disney will probably start with the very biggest accounts but they could start with the most obvious. If you have 1000 points and haven’t been to a Disney resort in 5 years, that could put you in the crosshairs.
On other threads about spec renting and walking, several members have reported not being able to get their home resort at 11m (or even 11.1mo) and already seeing multiple rental availability for those rooms and those dates. There is a better argument that
DVC is violating its duties to members if it’s not possible for a human being to reserve certain room types without specialized software than there is that DVC can’t crack down on people who rent regularly and frequently.
Love it 
