DVC point balancing 2022 vs 2021

[jshadd]

As you know, when the new rate schedules were published this week, there were changes in the points/night across the board and massive changes in the number of nights in travel periods. To keep DVC honest, each year, when the new point schedules come out, I prepare an analysis of the last two year's point requirements to make sure there are no significant changes by resort. I thought I would share it with you.

By taking each accommodation and the two schedules, we can calculate the overall point requirement for 2021 and 2022. According to my analysis, DVC point schedules at DVC resorts accounted for 77,143,499 points in 2021 and 77,314,443 million in 2022. The overall difference was 170,944 points or 0.2%. The detail is on pages 2-6, and you can see for each resort the impact of these changes.

Because there were both changes in points/night and travel periods, I broke out the difference between the impact of rate/night changes and the travel period changes. 126,705 point increase was due rate/night changes and 44,239 for travel period changes.

I know DVC points are not supposed to vary by the resort from year to year, but there may be an acceptable percent targeted. The overall point schedules went up 0.2% year over year. However, almost all resorts total points went up slightly from the previous year.

The analysis color codes the point/night changes in the 2022 rate listings. A green number will indicate that the point charts for that accommodation went down year over year, and a red and underline will mean that the point chart went for that accommodation compared to last year.

For point balancing, Disney counts two-bedroom lock-offs as a single unit and ignores the studios and one-bedrooms that make it up. In this scenario, the studio and one-bedrooms can go up in nightly rate cost but not impact balancing. The initial 2020 point schedule had these unaccounted for increases but was later changed.

I did a second analysis, substituting the studio and one-bedroom accommodations instead of the lock-offs. Using this analysis, the calculated points were 81,390,174 points in 2022 and 81,447,812 in 2021, or a difference of 57,638. There seems to be no repeat of the issues of 2020.

 

[Bing Showei]

Very nicely done, sir. Thank you for taking the time to put this together.

I think this drives home that, for better or worse, Disney is not touching cross-unit reallocation and sticking strictly to seasonal shifts within a room type. Zavandor probably touched on a nerve with that one. It's also encouraging to see there is nothing "strange," to put it generously, happening with the lock-off premiums.

Hats off to you for this. It's fantastic.

 

[Mumof4mice]

Thanks for sharing. Fantastic work!

 

[MommaBerd]

Wow! So fantastic! Thank you for this!!!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

As you know, when the new rate schedules were published this week, there were changes in the points/night across the board and massive changes in the number of nights in travel periods. To keep DVC honest, each year, when the new point schedules come out, I prepare an analysis of the last two year's point requirements to make sure there are no significant changes by resort. I thought I would share it with you.

By taking each accommodation and the two schedules, we can calculate the overall point requirement for 2021 and 2022. According to my analysis, DVC point schedules at DVC resorts accounted for 77,143,499 points in 2021 and 77,314,443 million in 2022. The overall difference was 170,944 points or 0.2%. The detail is on pages 2-6, and you can see for each resort the impact of these changes.

Because there were both changes in points/night and travel periods, I broke out the difference between the impact of rate/night changes and the travel period changes. 126,705 point increase was due rate/night changes and 44,239 for travel period changes.

I know DVC points are not supposed to vary by the resort from year to year, but there may be an acceptable percent targeted. The overall point schedules went up 0.2% year over year. However, almost all resorts total points went up slightly from the previous year.

The analysis color codes the point/night changes in the 2022 rate listings. A green number will indicate that the point charts for that accommodation went down year over year, and a red and underline will mean that the point chart went for that accommodation compared to last year.

For point balancing, Disney counts two-bedroom lock-offs as a single unit and ignores the studios and one-bedrooms that make it up. In this scenario, the studio and one-bedrooms can go up in nightly rate cost but not impact balancing. The initial 2020 point schedule had these unaccounted for increases but was later changed.

I did a second analysis, substituting the studio and one-bedroom accommodations instead of the lock-offs. Using this analysis, the calculated points were 81,390,174 points in 2022 and 81,447,812 in 2021, or a difference of 57,638. There seems to be no repeat of the issues of 2020.

Have you ever done the analysis of current back to 10 years ago for the resorts that have been open that long?

 

[CarolynFH]

As you know, when the new rate schedules were published this week, there were changes in the points/night across the board and massive changes in the number of nights in travel periods. To keep DVC honest, each year, when the new point schedules come out, I prepare an analysis of the last two year's point requirements to make sure there are no significant changes by resort. I thought I would share it with you.

By taking each accommodation and the two schedules, we can calculate the overall point requirement for 2021 and 2022. According to my analysis, DVC point schedules at DVC resorts accounted for 77,143,499 points in 2021 and 77,314,443 million in 2022. The overall difference was 170,944 points or 0.2%. The detail is on pages 2-6, and you can see for each resort the impact of these changes.

Because there were both changes in points/night and travel periods, I broke out the difference between the impact of rate/night changes and the travel period changes. 126,705 point increase was due rate/night changes and 44,239 for travel period changes.

I know DVC points are not supposed to vary by the resort from year to year, but there may be an acceptable percent targeted. The overall point schedules went up 0.2% year over year. However, almost all resorts total points went up slightly from the previous year.

The analysis color codes the point/night changes in the 2022 rate listings. A green number will indicate that the point charts for that accommodation went down year over year, and a red and underline will mean that the point chart went for that accommodation compared to last year.

For point balancing, Disney counts two-bedroom lock-offs as a single unit and ignores the studios and one-bedrooms that make it up. In this scenario, the studio and one-bedrooms can go up in nightly rate cost but not impact balancing. The initial 2020 point schedule had these unaccounted for increases but was later changed.

I did a second analysis, substituting the studio and one-bedroom accommodations instead of the lock-offs. Using this analysis, the calculated points were 81,390,174 points in 2022 and 81,447,812 in 2021, or a difference of 57,638. There seems to be no repeat of the issues of 2020.

Did you also compare these two years individually to a base year? I think the base year that DVC uses is 1991, to make sure that the number of weekend days and weekdays are the same for each year's chart.

 

[jshadd]

Have you ever done the analysis of current back to 10 years ago for the resorts that have been open that long?

I haven't only a couple of years. Now with 7 travel periods, it makes it hard to compare to prior years.

 

[sethschroeder]

I haven't only a couple of years. Now with 7 travel periods, it makes it hard to compare to prior years.

It's about total points for the year not a travel period or season.

 

[Granny]

I did a second analysis, substituting the studio and one-bedroom accommodations instead of the lock-offs. Using this analysis, the calculated points were 81,390,174 points in 2022 and 81,447,812 in 2021, or a difference of 57,638. There seems to be no repeat of the issues of 2020.

Thank you for taking this extra step. Since we stay primarily in 1BR villas, we would be significantly impacted if they implement the high point rate increases for 1BR and studios that they originally tried to bring into the 2020 point charts. Your efforts are very much appreciated!

 

[johnsbelt]

Hi jshadd,

I did something a little different but only for BLT. The missing piece for me were the number of units per size and category which you provided. My sheet so far has the points charts from 2011/12 (yes they were the same except for dates around the major holidays), 2020, 2021, and 2022. I'll try to add in some of the years in between when time permits. (Yes I do have points charts back to 2011 since I purchased in late 2010 and have kept them). Talk about your electronic pack rat.

If anyone looks at the document, the top has the categories and point totals. The first page contains 2011/12 and 2020. If you scroll down far enough you see 2021 and 2022. Finally there is my set of columns that I copy for each year that has all of the formulas and dates.

Hope this helps.

John

 

[Roughians_satchel]

I know DVC points are not supposed to vary by the resort from year to year, but there may be an acceptable percent targeted. The overall point schedules went up 0.2% year over year. However, almost all resorts total points went up slightly from the previous year.

This is the part I don't understand. I see how they are able to balance the points, but how are the resort TOTAL points increasing? Is it by declaring more rooms? Is that even possible at the older resorts?

 

[Sandisw]

This is the part I don't understand. I see how they are able to balance the points, but how are the resort TOTAL points increasing? Is it by declaring more rooms? Is that even possible at the older resorts?

The total number of points in the chart have to be compared to the base year that is used.

So, when looking year to year, there could be differences but they still match totals in the base year.

One thing that I recently got to thinking about is that a resort with a lock off premium may see differences because of that base year,

So, when you sleep some very small variations, it could be because of that base year...which we have recently found out is different for the resorts...and why some of us are okay with small changes because we attribute it to that.

 

[Minniemoo15]

My initial concern was that my week has gone up in points considerably (end of February) and doesn’t seem to be offset by similar decreases elsewhere in the chart. After looking at some very helpful calculations from users on this site it became clear that the reason for this is that PVBs point chart added 20,000+ points this year. From 2016-2021 the chart has always hovered between 4,030,000-4,034,000 points. 2022 has 4,054,000 points. This does not seem like an inconsequential increase. This is also about 20,000 more than is outlined as total points declared in the POS.

I have a call scheduled next week with a “regulatory affairs” manager. My main question will pertain to PVB and why the sudden expansion of the point chart for 2022. I want to get a clear number of the maximum total points the resort is allowed to have.

 

[SL6827]

My initial concern was that my week has gone up in points considerably (end of February) and doesn’t seem to be offset by similar decreases elsewhere in the chart. After looking at some very helpful calculations from users on this site it became clear that the reason for this is that PVBs point chart added 20,000+ points this year. From 2016-2021 the chart has always hovered between 4,030,000-4,034,000 points. 2022 has 4,054,000 points. This does not seem like an inconsequential increase. This is also about 20,000 more than is outlined as total points declared in the POS.

I have a call scheduled next week with a “regulatory affairs” manager. My main question will pertain to PVB and why the sudden expansion of the point chart for 2022. I want to get a clear number of the maximum total points the resort is allowed to have.

Ya, I think Disney is somehow trying to cook the books with 2022. They tried to before with the lock off premium and they had to back off when they realized they were gonna get called out on it. Just makes me wonder if they have been able to get away with cooking other books with DVC in the past years?

 

[Sandisw]

Ya, I think Disney is somehow trying to cook the books with 2022. They tried to before with the lock off premium and they had to back off when they realized they were gonna get called out on it. Just makes me wonder if they have been able to get away with cooking other books with DVC in the past years?

I have checked a few and I don’t see it in terms of being within reason when you look at the key pieces needed.

Again, you can’t compare just 2022 to 2022. Base year, weekends, etc. all play a role a roll in it.

Poly doesn’t have the lock off premium so that can’t play a role but it does with others and while it seems to have to stay within reason..some feel it can’t vary at all but I don’t see anything that says that for sure..

For example, BLT has to balance against 2 bedrooms and GV only as there are no dedicated rooms so total points are calculated based on that.

 

[sethschroeder]

some feel it can’t vary at all but I don’t see anything that says that for sure..

To clarify I say it can't vary when comparing to the base year it can vary year to year.

I also say they can easily make it balance perfectly so there should be no leeway for having more or less points when comparing off the base year.

To your point you can't compare 2020 vs 2022. You have to apply the 2020 charts to the base year and the 2022 charts to the base year.

I did run numbers however of the 19/20/21/22 point charts across a 50 year timespan and did not find a single year in which those 4 point charts matched. I did this for both POLY and RIV.

 

[SL6827]

What if Disney continues to add more and more points to the resorts say every other year in the years to come? Would that be a red flag? And in the history of DVC, have they done this before?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

What if Disney continues to add more and more points to the resorts say every other year in the years to come? Would that be a red flag? And in the history of DVC, have they done this before?

2 years ago that is essentially what they tried to do then reverted. For a lot of years they never made any changes at all so no, it hadn't been common but the action 2 years ago should not be forgotten.

 

[Sandisw]

To clarify I say it can't vary when comparing to the base year it can vary year to year.

I also say they can easily make it balance perfectly so there should be no leeway for having more or less points when comparing off the base year.

To your point you can't compare 2020 vs 2022. You have to apply the 2020 charts to the base year and the 2022 charts to the base year.

I did run numbers however of the 19/20/21/22 point charts across a 50 year timespan and did not find a single year in which those 4 point charts matched. I did this for both POLY and RIV.

I was talking about the lock off premium specifically varying, not total points for a unit because that is clear in the POS that number of points in the unit can’t not increase or decrease.

Yes, you compare to the base year so someone comparing 2021 to 2022 and getting a discrepancy doesn’t mean they added points u less one has confirmation that one of those is the base year.

Yes, DVC reversed course with a noticeable shift in the lock off premium in 2020, but I have yet to see exact language from the POS or timeshare law that prevents any change or that those must remain point neutral.

Again, I haven’t looked that closely at Poly and it will be interesting to hear what they say regarding that.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Yes, DVC reversed course with a noticeable shift in the lock off premium in 2020, but I have yet to see exact language from the POS or timeshare law that prevents any change or that those must remain point neutral.

It's pretty clear for resorts that have dedicated studios and 1BR's. Not all declarations are 2BR's. As you just outlined they can't just increase those as they wish. The resorts without that it would seem to be a potential free for all but I'd believe the fact they can't do it at all resorts would probably prevent that from happening.