Setting aside the debate on whether resale restrictions affect sales, I think it will be interesting to see what they do with RIV and PIT as the opening of LSL approaches.
Let's say sales of LSL begin in December 2026 with an opening in February 2027. I think they have a few options.
1. Do nothing. Just continue pricing RIV/PIT the way they are, and let all 3 be in active sales for most of 2027. Maybe if they combine CFW with LSL, they're actually ok with this. I tend to be skeptical they want that many resorts on sale at the same time, but maybe they don't really care.
2. Significant sales incentives on RIV and/or PIT. I sort of think they won't do that on PIT because, why offer a greater discount when you don't have to. RIV seems the more likely choice - seems to me a good extra $10-$20/point in addition to incentives they currently offer would probably get those points moving pretty fast.
3. Declare "sold out" before you get to 98% of points sold. I could see this making a lot of sense on RIV. You sell 90% of the points, declare it sold out and raise the price to $255-$265/point. Now, if you're a RIV owner, and you find yourself in need of more points, you have two options. Buy restricted resale, or cough up some extra money at the "sold out" price for unrestricted points. Maybe you occasionally run a "flash sale."
I think my money is currently on a combination of 2 and 3. Some pretty decent sales incentives on RIV as the opening date of LSL firms up to clear out some points, but Disney holding on to a good deal more than the required 2% of points and declaring it sold out before LSL goes on sale.
