SteveGriswold,
Here is a simple chart I drew up. It starts off with the assumtion of an annual 7 night stay on Disney Property. For Disney hotels it assumes a $350 per night cost which increase each year by 3%. For DVC it uses 160 points purchased at $91. Maint fees start at $659 for the DVC and also increase each year by 3%.
In this example, the initial DVC cost will be made up in savings sometime during the 8th vacation. After that the savings really start to add up. Of course, this chart could go out to 40+ years or the contract could be sold at year 20 and would probably sell at more than the purchase price (can't really compare dollar amounts 20 years apart of course). All of this assumes of course that the person would have been spending the 7 nights at a Disney Hotel anyway...
This is very interesting. I understand you're comparing apples to apples, but it would be interesting to see if you compared oranges to apples for those that are fine, or better yet, PREFER to stay at the Values. Better yet, those who stay at Values that have an AP and get a discount. I've stayed for 7 nights recently at a Value for $420.
But let's just say, you take the regular 2007 season rate of $99 per night and do the same chart with a 4% increase:
$784
$815
$848
$882
$917
$954
$992
$1031
$1073
$1116
$1161
$1207
$1255
$1305
$1358
$1412
$1468
$1527
$1588
$1652
Over 20 years, you've spent $23,345. To break even with 160 points, it would take you 24 years, and this is all assuming, you have received no annual pass discounts in that time. Also, this is assuming you pay for DVC upfront and don't finance it. If you finance it, you're probably looking at just breaking even.
Is it worth it? Not for everybody.
To take it a step further, if you were to use this comparison on a 1 bedroom villa at Wilderness Lodge for example, you would need 270 points for the same amount of time, which brings you to a starting cost of $24,570.
Again, it's not exactly apples to apples, but if a hotel room for you is just a place to shower and sleep, then DVC isn't for everybody.