DVC Long-term Cost Calculator

[ookitarepanda]

I know that JPKnapp has a really awesome "break even" calculator, but I was kind of looking for something where I could toy around with different numbers of points to find out what is the total investment until expiration. I've been researching DVC for a while, and had built a pretty simple amortization calculator in google sheets to play around with some numbers. But then after explaining some DVC stuff to the family, I made a spreadsheet that can be adjusted to look at long term (total) cost. The only "inflation" to consider is the growth of maintenance fees which is predicted based on historical data.

First, make a copy of this in your own Google Drive. Then you can choose the resort from the drop down menu, type the number of points you're planning on buying, and the rest will autofill. You can change the down payment percentage, as well as the loan's annual percent and length, but I have it default to 10% down, with 9.99% APR for 10 years. The cost per point is determined by taking a rough average of DVC Store listings, with Riviera's point cost being direct from Disney.

I've only included the 11 WDW resorts and Grand Californian for this iteration.

Feedback appreciated!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TsrzdZqN3yMzi92V9t9iTTyVoU5QKDKqqgoXuTI2SWA/edit?usp=sharing

 

[sethschroeder]

What are you doing to figure out long term maintenance fees? It would also be a good idea to do both a historical rate plus a more conservative rate where it increases faster.

 

[ookitarepanda]

I took this table - https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/annual-dues-by-resort - and calculated what was the average growth from year to year for each resort. Riviera doesn't have any data so I just used 4% growth per year.

 

[fixerupper]

I've run the numbers before, but it is still shocking. I could buy a nice second home. That's a lot of hotel rooms. It makes the buy in look like nothing (which it isn't). It's what keeps me dragging my feet. How do y'all reconcile those maintenance fees?

 

[fixerupper]

Oh, and one critique of the sheet - It would be nice to be able to adjust the buy price as well. I know I can just change it, but that would mess up the formula. Also, You have additional over E, but it is really D in the formula that makes the adjustment.

 

[sethschroeder]

I've run the numbers before, but it is still shocking. I could buy a nice second home. That's a lot of hotel rooms. It makes the buy in look like nothing (which it isn't). It's what keeps me dragging my feet. How do y'all reconcile those maintenance fees?

The yearly maintenance fees are nothing more than a prepaid hotel room at a discount. So it comes out of your travel budget you would have used if you were booking a room anyways.

 

[ookitarepanda]

Oh, and one critique of the sheet - It would be nice to be able to adjust the buy price as well. I know I can just change it, but that would mess up the formula. Also, You have additional over E, but it is really D in the formula that makes the adjustment.

Thanks for the tip on the additional, not sure why that happened. I’ll go in to fix that.

If you scroll to the right there’s a table with the $/point value that is changeable and will feed the formula. So if you are aiming to get something like BLT for $140 instead of 150, you can change those numbers.

 

[E2ME2]

I've run the numbers before, but it is still shocking. I could buy a nice second home. That's a lot of hotel rooms. It makes the buy in look like nothing (which it isn't). It's what keeps me dragging my feet. How do y'all reconcile those maintenance fees?

I've actually looked at a second home in Florida vs continuing to expand and extend my DVC stays in retirement.
My math always winds up favoring the DVC option. The second home has it's own share of ongoing maintenance costs, even when not in use.
And, unless I can also make time to do the normal maintenance myself, I would have to pay for that service (HOA, Property Manager, Something $).
Even when I thought about offsetting the costs by renting it when I'm not there, that also adds additional costs of insurance,and adds risks.
DVC is a turn-key operation; we just show up and use the facilities, and we have flexibility to stay at different locations each time.
You can't put a price on the convenience factor!
I'm 10 years in to DVC, and looking to continue to add on as I approach retirement, and SnowBird on an annual basis!
ET

 

[RoseGold]

I've run the numbers before, but it is still shocking. I could buy a nice second home. That's a lot of hotel rooms. It makes the buy in look like nothing (which it isn't). It's what keeps me dragging my feet. How do y'all reconcile those maintenance fees?

The math didn't make sense to me either until Poly was $600/night off-peak. And I've seen way more than that. Those cash numbers just keep going up, up, up.

 

[ClemTig]

The math didn't make sense to me either until Poly was $600/night off-peak. And I've seen way more than that. Those cash numbers just keep going up, up, up.

And that is the thing that bails out DVC buyers above all else. And few cost calculators accurately depict how well (and fast) WDW has been able to raise hotel rates. But there has to be an end to that ability, right???? I'm astonished that even at current prices, that the demand is as strong as ever.

 

[fixerupper]

And that is the thing that bails out DVC buyers above all else. And few cost calculators accurately depict how well (and fast) WDW has been able to raise hotel rates. But there has to be an end to that ability, right???? I'm astonished that even at current prices, that the demand is as strong as ever.

Even the ticket prices give me sticker shock now.

 

[rg35]

When you add in park tickets, cost of transportation, meals, etc., there's no break even point for DVC lol

I know the "logical" way of looking at it is under the assumption that if you didn't own DVC, you'd still go to WDW every year so you're saving x dollars by paying for lodging up front, but I'm hard pressed to think this is actually true. Once one buys DVC, they will wind up spending way more on Disney vacations than they would if they didn't own DVC.

Don't misread me - I am positive there are people who would be going to Disney one way or another, DVC owner or not, but there have gotta be many people who get sucked into the magic initially and then feel locked in to going year after year.

 

[ClemTig]

I rent out my points for 3 out of every 4 years. We do fine.

We’d do better if we rented 4 out of 4.

 

[JPKnapp]

I know that JPKnapp has a really awesome "break even" calculator, but I was kind of looking for something where I could toy around with different numbers of points to find out what is the total investment until expiration. I've been researching DVC for a while, and had built a pretty simple amortization calculator in google sheets to play around with some numbers. But then after explaining some DVC stuff to the family, I made a spreadsheet that can be adjusted to look at long term (total) cost. The only "inflation" to consider is the growth of maintenance fees which is predicted based on historical data.

First, make a copy of this in your own Google Drive. Then you can choose the resort from the drop down menu, type the number of points you're planning on buying, and the rest will autofill. You can change the down payment percentage, as well as the loan's annual percent and length, but I have it default to 10% down, with 9.99% APR for 10 years. The cost per point is determined by taking a rough average of DVC Store listings, with Riviera's point cost being direct from Disney.

I've only included the 11 WDW resorts and Grand Californian for this iteration.

Feedback appreciated!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TsrzdZqN3yMzi92V9t9iTTyVoU5QKDKqqgoXuTI2SWA/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for the shout out. The sheet I created does have the maintenance fees broken out by property including the individual historical yearly increase. It's an average of the increases over the last 9 years - or length of existence. Also it does have the comparison to what just investing the money would have. If you just want to see what the value of investment would be over the years, then you can set the Cash Spend to $0 and it'll calculate out. Maybe a cross between our sheets is what the world needs.

 

[RachStu]

I rent out my points for 3 out of every 4 years. We do fine.

We’d do better if we rented 4 out of 4.

Clem, do you mind me asking where you rent out your points? I assume for the rates you charge you are doing it directly?

 

[ookitarepanda]

Thanks for the shout out. The sheet I created does have the maintenance fees broken out by property including the individual historical yearly increase. It's an average of the increases over the last 9 years - or length of existence. Also it does have the comparison to what just investing the money would have. If you just want to see what the value of investment would be over the years, then you can set the Cash Spend to $0 and it'll calculate out. Maybe a cross between our sheets is what the world needs.

Definitely used your model to do those maintenance fees! But I was really happy to see that even on a place like the Dis boards I can find people who like playing with spreadsheets as much as I do. Stuff like this and skierpete’s availability sheet are just a lot of fun, and definitely help to put things into perspective on how deep of a program DVC is.

 

[ClemTig]

Have done it through Dave’s and directly. Dave’s doesn’t make it brainless, you still have to “do things” for guests, but it is a “little” easier. Probably not worth the $3-4/point you lose. The best plan is direct point transfers. As close to painless as it gets.

 

[RachStu]

Thanks Clem. I've used Dave's before. Renting the points privately has been a bit of a headache so far. I'm not sure it's worth the extra $2.50 / PP. I haven't tried points transfer before so will look into that.

 

[E2ME2]

When you add in park tickets, cost of transportation, meals, etc., there's no break even point for DVC lol

I know the "logical" way of looking at it is under the assumption that if you didn't own DVC, you'd still go to WDW every year so you're saving x dollars by paying for lodging up front, but I'm hard pressed to think this is actually true. Once one buys DVC, they will wind up spending way more on Disney vacations than they would if they didn't own DVC.

Don't misread me - I am positive there are people who would be going to Disney one way or another, DVC owner or not, but there have gotta be many people who get sucked into the magic initially and then feel locked in to going year after year.

This all depends on your end-game strategy.
I must say that if I could have afforded DVC 30 years ago, it may have led to the type scenario you are describing
(would have felt forced to bring kids and buy tix every year, wiping out any "savings", due to annual travel and meals & incidentals).
However, as a grandparent now, and nearing retirement, my DVC purchase was calculated from a different perspective.
We bought 10 year ago, and I now have 3 grandchildren, soon to be ages 8, 6, and 4.
I am also retiring this year, after 44 years of WORK.
In the 10 years we've owned DVC, we have booked 11 stays, totaling 75 Nights, (in Studios/1BR/2BR/3BR-Grand Villa*)
*We saved/banked/borrowed and took 6 Adults & 3 grandkids for a week!
After our first trip, we decided we could stagger our dates every other year, and get 2 Stays out of one AP, taking advantage of the DVC prices, of course.
Every 3rd year we do a non-park stay, and we have been enjoying that thoroughly.
Our only regret is that we did not buy more points at the 2010 prices.
We're currently looking for the right add-on via resale, to extend our "snowbird" trips starting next year.
If I get another 10 years use, it will have all been worth it, and anything greater than 10 years use will just be additional toppings on my DVC-Sundae!
ET

 

[montreid]

Why don't folk use dolphin or swan as the cash price equivalent?