DVC Listings up over 700%!!

[HIRyeDVC]

In March 2021, there were 207 total resale listings across 13 brokers. March 2022 had over 1500! What does it mean?!

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...00-for-all-walt-disney-world-resorts-combined

 

[Ruttangel]

In March 2021, there were 207 total resale listings across 13 brokers. March 2022 had over 1500! What does it mean?!

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...00-for-all-walt-disney-world-resorts-combined

The end is nigh!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

The end is nigh!

You think? Time to start listing all our contracts?

 

[Ruttangel]

I’ve been reviewing this for a while and you would think it would be a great time to buy as you should be able to get a bargain but ROFR is keeping the prices up,
Places like PVB/AUL where they never buy back could be a great place for a bargain. There are loads of PVB for sale, you could get one under $140 if you find a willing seller.

Overall though I don’t know, personally I think changes such as Genie +, getting rid of magic express and AP sales/discounts all contribute to this. As an international owner I Also think many have been frustrated being unable to travel.

 

[DougEMG]

Could mean any number of things:
- high resale prices are tempting more people to see what they can get
- people not happy with the way things going at Disney are want out
- high inflation causing rising costs for everything causing people to have to sell

If I were selling today it would be the first 2 that would be my reason

 

[RoseGold]

If you're looking at the same tracker I am, it added several brokers throughout 2021. And people cross-list contracts on multiple brokers, so that may or may not be changing numbers.

 

[lowlight]

The pandemic pushed a ton of people who were on the brink of retirement into early retirement, and a bunch of people who had worked past their retirement into finally retiring. I'd imagine anyone who was on the fence about selling DVC was likely pushed to sell due to overall Disney price increases, hostile words and policies from DVC management, and the looming recession. If you've owned DVC for 20+ years and are now worried that your "well used" investment might cost you 15% more per year (I think that's the cap on dues increases per year, correct me if I'm wrong please), you might get out while the getting is good.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I'd be interested in knowing what the numbers looked like before the pandemic, not in the middle of it. Many things were impacting peoples' decisions in 2021. Also, supply and demand. For those who are unhappy with Disney and want to sell, there are clearly others out there anxious to buy. The listings definitely seem to be selling.

 

[kilik64]

I’ve been reviewing this for a while and you would think it would be a great time to buy as you should be able to get a bargain but ROFR is keeping the prices up,

Contrary to certain individuals who argue rofr has no bearing on the resale price, seems like this chart proves that it does. That or there is a severe lag in the market. Number of contracts for sale is way up but actual sales are down. In that scenario, absent ROFR, the price should be tanking if people were serious about selling as sellers would then compete to get a buyer and buyers would wait for better prices.

 

[jkips]

I'd be interested in knowing what the numbers looked like before the pandemic, not in the middle of it. Many things were impacting peoples' decisions in 2021. Also, supply and demand. For those who are unhappy with Disney and want to sell, there are clearly others out there anxious to buy. The listings definitely seem to be selling.

Agreed - really tough to read much into this without the numbers before the pandemic. And to RoseGold's point if it's not an apples to apples comparison and they have been adding brokers during that time period then the data becomes very suspect.

 

[kilik64]

Agreed - really tough to read much into this without the numbers before the pandemic. And to RoseGold's point if it's not an apples to apples comparison and they have been adding brokers during that time period then the data becomes very suspect.

I dont think that is the case, it shows data for all 13 they are drawing data from from the start of the chart, so doesnt appear some were added as time went on.

 

[Bo1203]

I wonder if resale owners are selling and turning around to buy direct.

 

[jkips]

I wonder if resale owners are selling and turning around to buy direct.

For Aulani at the beginning of the year that was probably some of it. And now VGF maybe?

 

[jkips]

I dont think that is the case, it shows data for all 13 they are drawing data from from the start of the chart, so doesnt appear some were added as time went on.

Yeah - good point. Seems like a lot of post Covid shadow inventory coming out now then. Which seems especially odd given the bounce back in the rest of the travel industry. Can’t really blame the Fox News/DeSantis cancel Disney crowd either because the inventory has been growing steadily for a while now.

 

[kilik64]

Oh of note, based on the data in the chart this does NOT include ROFR. According to another source there was 600 total sales in march, but 193 was buybacks. So this chart has actual sales to individuals and does not include rofr. So the total sales like is going to low vs what actually was bought either by a person or DVD

 

[jkips]

At 1400 listings with ~600 sales per month including buybacks that's only a bit over 2 months of inventory. That's not a crazy glut.

In May of 2021 that chart shows ~250 listings but close to 700 private resale contracts per month. So it's likely a churn issue. If the average listing was up for 1 week in May of 2021 but is now up for 4 weeks in April of 2022 then if there were the same amount of sellers it would show as 4x the listings if I'm thinking about this right. Still indicative of a supply/demand balance more in favor of buyers now but probably coming off of what was a heavily skewed market towards sellers in early 2021.

 

[RichVIII]

Even just back in late 2021 inventory of contracts was low across the resale sites (I was checking daily). Prices continued to rise and eventually more put contracts on the market. Having continued to see contracts be added but no impact on price with lots of buybacks.

I do think people are trading in some to buy direct, seemed like many folks did it with the deals they offered on older sold out resorts and then GFV. The biz shows still say most consumers are still pretty cash flush at the moment despite inflation. So you also add the revenge vacation crowd in the mix with pent up cash, I think there are forces on both side?

 

[kanerf]

Also the economy is in the toilet right now. People may be selling because they need the money.

 

[rubybutt]

Bigger question is what is the average price sold doing? I think we all know that. The sky is not falling.

 

[Bo1203]

Also the economy is in the toilet right now. People may be selling because they need the money.

Debatable. JP Morgan reported earlier this week consumer deposits are up 18% yoy.

Demand is at all time highs for real estate, travel, cars and consumer goods. Unemployment is low.