DVC I and DVC II????

[Terry S]

I read something on this forum that talks about a DVC I and a DVC II what is this all about.? I got the impression that DVC II will not end in 2042 is that right? Is this all rumor or fact? Is BCV going to be under DVC II, if there is such a thing?

 

[wdwendyd]

The whole idea of DVC I and DVC II is based on ideas that people on this board have. Disney has never made any comments about this what so ever. People on this board figure that as the life of DVC gets shorter, Disney will come up with a plan to make purchase more appealing.

 

[dianeschlicht]

THE FACT is that DVC has said nothing about this. I think 10 years into the DVC concept is too early to be thinking about a replacement.

 

[kem330]

It's true there are no facts to support the intent of Disney to spin off DVC II. I believe the idea that they might do it , is based on the speculation that point costs for the new Eagle Pines resort will be quite high (compared to what current members have paid to buy in). One way to justify a higher purchase price is to extend the time period. If EPV first phase is not ready until 2004, that only gives 38 years compared to the 50 years originally offered with OKW. By offering a longer time, it could be a way to market DVC to the next generation. Bottom line is no one knows, but we have a lot of fun guessing! It will be very telling to see where BCV's fit in all this- new or old DVC!

 

[Dean]

No official word from DVC but I've had 2 guides speculate that Eagle Pines would be a different ending year, only time will tell. One seemed right on target with everything else and the other I didn't discuss enough info to have an idea of his credibility. I just don't see DVC being able to sell a large 600 unit resort that starts selling in 2004 and will likely sell into 2010 or later without some type of gimmick. I could have seen it for an add on resort say at AKL to end in 2042. Besides they are going to need a selling point for Eagle Pines with the price per point being likely $85-90 or more by then and the points per week being higher along with smaller rooms. I don't think having 3 BR GV will be enough to push sales that much.

I would have thought that a resort of this type would have less points per week requirements than BC and BW but recent info I have suggests otherwise. Namely that WLV was more points than BW (same as preferred) and that the same guide noted above told me they (meaning he and coworkers) were surprised it wasn't higher than BW.

 

[vernon]

If the economics make sense ( and most people come up with DVC "breaking even" between 7 and 12 years of use) why does Disney have to "justify" the fact the price is higher now than it was in the past. Room charges are higher than they were 10 years ago, does that mean Disney allows you to check out at 16.00 to compensate for the extra cost? It was a bargain when it was first sold and IMHO it still is now. Disney has one Timeshare interest, IF it wants to sell it in the future it will be much easier to do so as a single unit. Disney sells DVC because of the flexibility of the system, having two different systems opperating at the same time means people will feel there is the possibility the freedom of movement between the two MIGHT be changed at some time in the future. IMHO that weakens sales for VEP because , as has previously been noted, VEP will be similar in feel to OKW ( a stand alone DVC resort not walking distance to a park). While I prefer OKW myself, there are times it suits my party to stay at BW ( or BCV when open). People may prefer to buy a resale (with the choice of 6 different resorts) over a longer term but just ( at the moment) one resort.
If fact I think that's an interesting idea an I'm going to poll it. Which would you prefer to buy IF ( and I don't think it would happen because I think I know the answer) there was a DVC 1 and a DVC 2 . given the choices are
DVC 1. 38 years of OKW, BWV, BCV, VWL, HH and Vero.
DVC 2 50 years of EPV ( no guarantee of whatever switching facility to continue, the site will be under construction for at least the first 6 years, no new beach resorts)
Given that by the very fact EPV would be a "new DVC" how could anyone buying be confident that IF Disney built more DVC resorts they wouldn't just make each new resort a "stand alone" entity. You could end up with very little opportunity to exchange into the "big six" DVC 1 resorts that would be able to out muscle the smaller entity in regards to deals done with II and the "concierge collection" hotels.

I think it would create more problems than it would solve for Disney and IMHO the more simplified a business plan is the more chance it has to succeed.

 

[Dean]

Vernon, would you feel the same if the newer resorts were part of the same system but just had a different ending date. That new and old DVC owners could use the system to stay at ANY of the DVC (I or II) with their points at the 7 mo window? The only difference would be that at a certain time the older resorts would drop out of the system.

 

[vernon]

Any new DVC system CAN NOT be part of the same system AND have a different end date, the management system/company/mandate gets wound up at the end of 2042. Any new system would HAVE to have it's own structure and management, IMHO that makes it unmanagable it's either completely separate entities OR it's one ( all with end 2042). I think there would be EVERY chance that DVC 1 owners would object to DVC 2 owners having the same 7 month window. EPV would be a large resort and as such unlikely to be in such high demand as some of the smaller resorts in peak season. All EPV brings to the table is accommodation at WDW, which DVC 1 has in abundance and OKW is likely to mirror in ambiance.. Why give up preferential "rates" for the other DVC 1 that offer different locations and different feelings. If I was to be asked to vote I'd say at the VERY most only offer 5 month window to DVC 2. What would we , as DVC 1 owners , owe to the "new kids" ? JMHO

IMHO DVC (1) and any following entities would HAVE to negotiate on an on going basis as DVC currently does with Cruise line, WDW hotels, DLP, Disney California,II and the consierge collection hotels. It may suit them to continue until 2042 but the point I'm trying to make is would YOU gamble with YOUR money on unbackable promises or would you play safe with a known product with a certain future. Because IF things did change you know with DVC 1 ( as outlined above) you have GUARANTEED the choice of 6 resorts in different locations for the following 38 years. IMHO there would be a lot of " HELL, in 38 years time I'll be X years old( or dead) I'd rather have what I know than take a gamble on whats going to happen between 2042-2054 ( by which time even the YOUNGEST of us are going to be close on 60 years old.

 

[wdwendyd]

My husband was told something disturbing by our guide about three weeks ago. I have been puzzling about it and think it could pertain to this thread.
We were asking about if Disney had any OKW or BWV points available for sale (He didn't even mention the lottery that came up the following week!!) And he told my husband something like this --"It is important to buy through Disney because if DVC management is sold, resale owners may be restricted to their home resorts." !!!! What do you think he meant by this!!! Do you think it was just a ploy to persuade us to only buy through Disney??!!!
I don't think they could go through the records and "kick out" all of us who bought resale but it made me think this could be a possibility for those that buy in the future (like after DVC II starts?!!) What do you think of his statement?

 

[vernon]

I think Disney ( or the new owners ) would find themselves in court DAMN QUICK with a massive lawsuit on their hands. It could be possible for Disney to sell the DVC management to an outside company who then put into place a system different to the current one ( i.e.11mnth/7mnth window, exchanges out etc), but with Disney getting the rights back in 2042 I think unlikely BEFORE 2042 as I can't see the profit in it to an outsideer. Remarketting the whole project in 2042 is a different matter and I can see potential in taking that task on) BUT No one would try to differentiate between resales and those bought direct from Disney. An owner is an owner.

Any lawyers out there want to comment on a "class action suit" there?

 

[Diznut84]

Originally posted by wdwendyd
"It is important to buy through Disney because if DVC management is sold, resale owners may be restricted to their home resorts." !!!! ... What do you think of his statement?

It would be EXTREMELY unlikely for such a scenario to play out largely because people would lose faith in Disney as a timeshare player. Who would buy any further DVC properties if this scenario played out? No chance of it happening, IMHO....

 

[kem330]

My explanation to Terry was to explain past speculation, and how this whole topic got started. No one knows what the DVC master plan is, but I don't believe you can say that they can't extend the end date for points somehow. And quite frankly I don't think I just look at the break even point. I look at the fact that for 41 years I will have a deal at Disney. If after 10 years, my situation changes, I can still sell my interest and that is an added value, but at some point, say in 2026, maybe it won't be as valuable to resell. So to me, the less time the points are usable, the less value they have has a resale asset.

 

[Dean]

I see nothing in the POS for either OKW or the multi site offering that would preclude a resort that ends at a different time being part of the club. Just because it says the club ends in 2042, I would read that as all of the current resorts end then, not that it must end then.