DVC having trouble keeping up with increasing memberships???

[whithouston]

So, is it me, or is it more difficult now to get a reservation at a DVC resort, than it was 4-5 years ago? I remember back in Nov. of 2003, I called and got a reservation at OKW for Christmas. Now, it seems that is unavailable in the summer. Is DVC having trouble keeping up with the increasing memberships versus the amount of rooms they have available? Don't get me wrong, we love our membership, but it is sometimes difficult to get a reservation. If you agree, what should be done about this? I believe another resort the size of SSR should be built to accommodate the increasing memberships.

Just needed to vent a bit.

Thanks!

Scott

 

[happydvcmember]

Well if they were to build another big resort like ssr it might help for the short time but they would sell out fast and the problem would be there again but this time with a larger membership so i don't know if that would be a fix.

 

[whithouston]

Well if they were to build another big resort like ssr it might help for the short time but they would sell out fast and the problem would be there again but this time with a larger membership so i don't know if that would be a fix.

I can see your point, but what must Disney do to accommodate members. If they don't build more resorts of that size, it is soon going to become impossible to get a reservation, thus making the membership frustrating and useless.

 

[rsinj]

.

 

[whithouston]

DVC isn't having trouble keeping up at all - you just aren't looking at things in the proper perspective.

With more memberships, you are going to have more people able to book at the 7 month window - that's just a fact. It isn't a matter of DVC keeping up - there are exactly enough rooms for the number of points that have been purchased for use throughout the year. Now, obviously there are more people looking to travel during the peak times - aren't there? Of course there is going to be less available overall during peak periods when you add the members from a huge resort like SSR. Couple that with the fact that OKW is the least expensive on a points/night basis, and it is easy to see why it fills up at the 7 month window for peak times.

It is not a matter of keeping up at all - it is a matter of demand when you have a fixed supply of the product.

I was waiting for someone to mention the 7/11 month window. I was just using OKW as an example. I understand that the 7/11 month window is there and if utilized properly, you can pretty much get any resort you want. However, how many of us have decided a month or two out to take a Disney vacation? That is where the disadvantage lies.

In no way am I trying to make this to be an argument or disagreement. It is just a bit frustrating at times and didn't know if anyone shared in my frustration. Apparently, I am out on an island with this.

Thanks for your input!

Scott

 

[rsinj]

.

 

[rsinj]

.

 

[mikesmom]

Let's try this one more time.

DVC doesn't just build buildings. They build resorts with memberships attached - more members to use the rooms. This is not a hotel, remember, this is a timeshare. For every room they build, they must add more members. So, if you build another resort the size of SSR, you get an accompanying batch of new members. DVC doesn't sell more memberships than the resorts can hold, BUT there aren't enough rooms if half of all the members all try to pile in the same month- or, in your case, the same week - Christmas.

If you make a reservation at your home resort at your 11 month window for Christmas week, I suspect you will have no problem. Once you hit the 7 month window, you are competing with every other DVC member for reservations. Waiting until amonth or 2 out just increases the problem. If DVC builds another resort the size of SSR, yes there will be more rooms, but there will also be a lot more members competing for those rooms Christmas week.

Also do remember that 9/11 seriously impacted travel. People were frightened to get on planes. People were also frightened to go to places where large crowds would be a good target. There was more than one rumor floating around about WDW being a terrorist target. Travel dropped like a rock in 2001 and 2002 and it wasn't back yet in 2003, when you got your Christmas ressie in November (you were lucky). As folks have calmed down and time passed, travel has increased a LOT. You just have to make plans farther out. If you look at some of the other Boards, you will see that it's not just DVC ressies that are hard to get close to date - the other resorts do also. This year there has been a LOT of Board talk about "why can't I get..." and "what's going on, I can't get..."

Again, build more resorts, compete with more members. The solution is to book at the 11 month window. Hope this helps.

 

[JimMIA]

Again, wrong perspective. All your membership guarantees you is that you can make a reservation at your home resort at 11 month. The longer you wait, the less chance you have of getting what you want, where you want, or possibly being able to get a reservation.

Actually, I think all the POS really guarantees us is a one-month home resort booking advantage. For years (maybe always, I don't know), the advantage has been 4 months with the 11/7 arrangement, but that could be "steamlined" or "simplified" at any time.

The fact is, DVC was never designed, and does not work particularly well, for short-notice trips. You may get lucky -- my daughters usually do -- but DVC is not designed for that.

I do think that many more DVC owners are booking earlier because of the new reality of availability. I also don't think that is going to change -- in fact, I think it's going to get worse in the seven-month window.

Just think what will happen when DVC has a sold-out Grand Californian and a sold-out Hawaii in five years. Or look out to ten years, when they have a sold-out Hong Kong, Caribbean, Paris, Tahoe, and Mexico (just speculating).

You have to know that, at some point, all of those non-WDW owners are going to also book at WDW. Their purchases don't add a single room at WDW, but rest assured, they'll be on the phone at seven months booking BCV if they can get it.

 

[rsinj]

.

 

[TisBit]

Interesting notes on how travel and 9/11 has impacted availability. But also look at the economy and the U.S. Dollar, there are tons of people coming from other areas of the world to the U.S. and obviously to the number one tourist destination (Orlando). That puts a crunch on rooms and cash reservations, as well as renting points and even owners from UK and Europe who might have been banking points, etc. They will be traveling more and possibly taking up more space.

Not to mention we are a country of instant gratification. I want it it and I want it now! Look at a regular timeshare, the will guarantee you one week a year, pre-set, no changes no swaps. DVC is more fluid, so there may be open rooms one week and booked the next. Your points were able to be used, just not the week or day you wanted.

P.S. Look at how many people complain about SSR, cause it is too big or too far away. A lot of people complaining are complaining they can't get into BCV, but there is availability at SSR.

 

[Laurabearz]

I booked 4 nights, 15 days out, for a December stay this year at OKW..


BUT...

While there is a big YAY we LOVE SSR people here on the DIS, my feeling is there are many many MANY members who bought SSR, just to book elsewhere at the 7 month window.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

You have to know that, at some point, all of those non-WDW owners are going to also book at WDW. Their purchases don't add a single room at WDW, but rest assured, they'll be on the phone at seven months booking BCV if they can get it.

So Jim, do you think once the complaints start coming in from those "other non-WDW resorts" when they can't even get a ressie at 7 mos. that Disney may then change the home resort reservation window from 11-7 to maybe 11-10? There would have to be some change that would open up the window for the increased membership to reserve elsewhere. This is a big sales pitch, and once it becomes evident that one really can't ressie at 7 mos., they may start to lose sales. Just my OP.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

As other have noted in this thread, there is a direct correlation between DVC points and DVC member inventory.

By law, Disney Vacation Development (DVD) cannot sell more than DVC usage than capacity. There may be twice as many outstanding points as several years ago, but there is also twice as much capacity.

However, there's no guarantee that all members will be able to book whatever days they want, whenever they want. There is a finite capacity, and there will be times when the that capacity is sold out. In fact, it's not so much a matter of if the capacity will be sold out, just when. The timeshare model (any timeshare including DVC) works on near-100% occupancy.

I have a theory on why it's becoming more important to book DVC stays as soon as possible. Once any members have been "burned" -- unable to get the days they wanted because they waited too long -- they change their behavior in future years to book as soon as possible. With more and more longtime members, more and more members have been "burned" at some time. So, the general trend is toward more and more members booking earlier, and fewer and fewer DVC rooms available on short notice.

 

[JimMIA]

So Jim, do you think once the complaints start coming in from those "other non-WDW resorts" when they can't even get a ressie at 7 mos. that Disney may then change the home resort reservation window from 11-7 to maybe 11-10? There would have to be some change that would open up the window for the increased membership to reserve elsewhere. This is a big sales pitch, and once it becomes evident that one really can't ressie at 7 mos., they may start to lose sales. Just my OP.

I think it's hard to guess what DVC will do a few years out. I'm sure they look at all sorts of options, but I doubt if even they know. What is clear is that they are going to continue to expand outside of WDW, and that they are going to be much more aggressive with that approach than they have been in the past.

I think they'll expand inside WDW as well. I think the new building at the Contemporary will be all-DVC, and I think you'll eventually see DVC villas at all of the Disney Deluxe hotels. And don't forget that the Pop is only half-built. They could add DVC there, or depending on their marketing research, maybe finish Pop as a value and convert some moderate capacity into DVC...like part of POR, for example. Any onsite additions will obviously increase onsite capacity, as well as the number of owners.

I don't know that 7-month difficulty complaints would actually cause them to make changes. The guides usually phrase that as "...subject to availability, of course," and everyone understands that if there's no room, there's no room.

If they wanted to make changes in the booking rights, there are probably a lot of things they could do. Clearly the POS only guarantees us a one-month booking advantage, but they wouldn't necessarily have to make a radical change. They could set aside 10-20 % of the remaining availability at 9 months, for example, and make that available for non-home bookings...or even for a subset of non-home bookings, like owners overseas who need to book their travel far in advance.

It's hard to predict, but it seems to me that to the degree that offsite DVC sales happen faster than onsite DVC sales, we can expect increasing pressure at seven months onsite. I also expect that pressure to be much greater than what we're now seeing -- which is primarily owners of larger home resorts booking at smaller resorts. Plus...I think we have begun to see much more aggressive DVC booking by CRO than we've had in the past, and that could also add pressure late in the booking periods.

 

[Dean]

So, is it me, or is it more difficult now to get a reservation at a DVC resort, than it was 4-5 years ago? I remember back in Nov. of 2003, I called and got a reservation at OKW for Christmas. Now, it seems that is unavailable in the summer. Is DVC having trouble keeping up with the increasing memberships versus the amount of rooms they have available? Don't get me wrong, we love our membership, but it is sometimes difficult to get a reservation. If you agree, what should be done about this? I believe another resort the size of SSR should be built to accommodate the increasing memberships.

Just needed to vent a bit.

Thanks!

Scott

Each and every points is tied to a unit so the more units simply means more points and more members. I think what you're seeing is what you should have seen all along, just that many members didn't realize they needed to be better planners. IMO, SSR has actually decreased availability overall because more and more members are learning they have to book earlier. It remains to be seen what impact AKV will have, my guess is it will be fairly neutral but we shall see. But yes, I think it has gotten more difficult as expected.

 

[starbox]

The parks have gotten more crowded and the "off-season" has shrunk considerably in the past 4-5 years. I think there's a number of reasons:

1. As PP mentioned, the fear of travel/flying after 9/11 went away. We were at WDW the year of 9/11 and it was so quiet.

2. More aggressive Disney marketing to get guests to stay longer and on-site.

3. More aggressive Disney marketing to provide incentives/activities for guests to visit year-round.

I also think DVC availability has suffered in recent years due to the widespread publication/information about point rentals in numerous travel guides.

 

[WDWguru]

Plus...I think we have begun to see much more aggressive DVC booking by CRO than we've had in the past, and that could also add pressure late in the booking periods.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this should NOT impact members in the slightest. CRO inventory is entirely separate from member inventory. It comes from the 4% or so ownership that DVD retains and member trade-outs (hence those members no longer vying for DVC accommodations during that timeframe).

 

[Dean]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this should NOT impact members in the slightest. CRO inventory is entirely separate from member inventory. It comes from the 4% or so ownership that DVD retains and member trade-outs (hence those members no longer vying for DVC accommodations during that timeframe).

It also comes from breakage inventory. Anything not booked at 2 months out is fair game for cash rentals and may not be available to members at all.

 

[JimMIA]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this should NOT impact members in the slightest. CRO inventory is entirely separate from member inventory. It comes from the 4% or so ownership that DVD retains and member trade-outs (hence those members no longer vying for DVC accommodations during that timeframe).

That's partially correct. However, there are two sources of inventory available to CRO in addition to the 2-4% held for maintenance.

One source you mentioned -- exchanges out of DVC (for non-DVC accommodations like cruises, etc) by DVC members. Those points go to CRO and are rented for cash, essentially to pay for the non-DVC accommodations the member is using. The availability associated with those points is no longer available for points stays.

I don't know how the dates of that points usage are determined, so I'm not sure if your point about that owner not seeking WDW accommodations during that timeframe is right or not.

The other source is all DVC points availability which is unbooked 60 days out. That inventory is available to CRO as well as members. If CRO books it first, they get a %, and the rest of the revenue goes back to that particular DVC association as "Breakage revenue." Breakage revenue helps offset our dues, but the availability which generated the revenue is gone once CRO rents the villa.