DVC Financial Analysis

[Genie+]

Guys the 7 year number is nonsense.

Can anyone even provide an original source for it?

I noticed that at the beginning of their post, just figured it didn’t matter what they thought back when buying because in the end it was all about add-ons, going more often and spending more money

 

[AstroBlasters]

Guys the 7 year number is nonsense.

Can anyone even provide an original source for it?

The DVC Fan podcast which has all of the data from the board sponsor, who is the largest reseller of DVC contracts.

I believe I also have heard it in the DVC Newscast.

 

[Genie+]

In that way it’s true for us too. DVC hasn’t lowered our budgets. It’s getting more exciting trips and more fun out of those trip budgets. Before DVC we already figured out we’re onsite people, repeat visitors and cash moderate was our speed. If we never learned DVC and planned a 2025 trip, most likely would’ve been $2.1k for 6 nights moderate and maybe a bit more. With DVC we’re not exceeding that type of budget; it’s costing $500 on the portion of buy-in and $1k dues, and however one want’s to calculate TVM/inflation on that buy-in portion. Even if that $500 quadruples by my contract end, on average it’s double through the years.

I’m not a math whiz and maybe someone can make a good case on why I should consider that $500 buyin cost split over 40 years as closer to $1500 on average for prepaying so far in advance… I’d still feel ok. My moderate room would’ve been $2.1k and we spent $2.5k for the same trip via DVC, but the trips don’t come close. One I’m at Port Orleans, Coronado or paying the full $2.5k at the more expensive skyliner moderate: CBR. The DVC trip I’m at BW, VGF, BLT, Poly, AKL. These trips are next level. Better room, bigger room, so much more to enjoy at the resorts, and that price includes our blue card which I’m beyond surprised how much we’ve actually been using that.

I feel like DVC gives us a big bonus for committing to a certain budget in advance for years down the line.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I love DVC, but for us there’s absolutely zero chance of ever breaking even. The reason? We’re spoiled! We love the cabins at Copper Creek, we love the one bedrooms at Riviera and Grand Floridian, we love the ocean view one bedrooms at Aulani, and since it’s a long trip to Hawaii, and to Florida from Los Angeles, we like staying for a couple weeks each time when we go. The bottom line is that without the points, our travel plans, in terms of duration and accommodations, would no doubt be a bit more limited. We’d stay in hotel rooms for less time, since the rack rate cost of our DVC vacations would be ridiculously self indulgent.

I suspect this is true for many DVC owners. I think a good percentage of us are spending more money on a fun product than we ever thought we would, for accommodations we would probably not book otherwise. And that’s not even counting the opportunity cost of what we would have made by even conservatively investing elsewhere the money spent on DVC. Not sure you can really justify the purchase on a financial basis.

 

[Sandisw]

Guys the 7 year number is nonsense.

Can anyone even provide an original source for it?

It has been posted that is about the average time of ownership for those owners who choose to sell, not the average length of ownership.

For examples if 2% of owners have decided to sell their contract, the average length of ownership for just THOSE owners is around 7 to 10 years.

So, if some of it has been reported via podcast from brokers, it’s based on what they have been selling.

That is much different than average length of ownwrship before someone gets out of DVC.

Heck, all the contracts I have sold were owned less than 7 years but I bought others.

 

[Ruttangel]

Also, owners buy and sell, I’ve bought 5 and sold 2. I didn’t own the ones I sold even 5 years but that doesn’t mean my overall ownership has ended

 

[jennypenny]

The old (late '90s) promo materials used to promote 7 years as the time it took to break even with a DVC purchase. I remember my guide specifically saying that to me. I wonder if the 7 years thing has been a case of 'telephone' for DVC. 'You can sell after 7 years and break even' may have morphed into 'most people sell after 7 years' in the DVC ether.

 

[Massachusetts]

Just reiterating what many have already said. It is about more than money. Without DVC my kids would have gone to Disney a few times but with DVC they have been to WDW with all of their grandparents, and almost all of their 1st cousins. I do not think the extended family would have prioritized those visits in the absence of our ability to cover at least the lodging costs.

 

[Brian Noble]

Can anyone even provide an original source for it?

My recollection (which is almost certainly flawed):

Someone pulled the resales for some period of time, and did the work to figure out how long the seller had owned the deed by searching for that record. Over that period of time, the deeds sold had been owned for an average of seven years.

It is problematic to extrapolate from that to any future statement for all the reasons already mentioned in this thread. It's also almost certainly the case that "average" is the wrong statistic, because the distribution of "years owned" is almost certainly not symmetric.

But, it certainly fed the obsession that many have about resale value.

 

[samsp99]

Although I have degrees in both Economics and in Finance, sometimes a very simplistic view may help you decide. As most of the extensive analyses indicate, DVC probably makes sense if you:

1. Will go to WDW regularly (at least every other year) for the foreseeable future
2. Always stay on property in Deluxes
3. Can plan ahead (at least 7 months)
4. Are able to purchase points without financing

1, 3, and 4 work for me, but I stay at values, moderates, or off property so the decision is easy; DVC is not for me.

I was in the same bucket as you. I stayed in moderates or off-site because I couldn’t justify paying the costs of deluxe rooms. Owning DVC lets me stay in deluxe for pretty much the same price as a moderate resort. Now I could probably get the same with point rentals, but then you have to deal with somebody else, and competition for the rooms I want when I want them is fierce.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Just reiterating what many have already said. It about more than money. Without DVC my kids would have gone to Disney a few times but with DVC they have been to WDW with all of their grandparents, and almost all of their 1st cousins. I do not think the extended family would have prioritized those visits in the absence of our ability to cover at least the lodging costs.

Yes, agree. It is about more than money. For us it’s about memories, fun and experiences. And those are priceless. And we love it. But, if you crunch the numbers, aren’t we all paying more to stay in nicer rooms and visiting more frequently than we ever would have without DVC? And, in so doing, aren’t we all also paying more for food, drink, and merchandise as well? Of course we are! I just don’t think DVC is justifiable as a good financial decision.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I think DVC math is fuzzy math, but that's okay with me. All the previous reasons resonate with us; never vacationing without being forced to, staying bougie versus crammed into a room with luggage and crap everywhere, not going anywhere for years otherwise, being in the bubble, etc.

My math is also skewed by comparing costs to any other place as a family. I do all the vacation planning/paying for the trips themselves (airfare/tickets/excursions/food/supplies/scooter rental/Owners Lockers) and DH buys the points and pays the dues. He doesn't want to be bothered with details and budgeting.

We rented a cottage by the ocean, one street back from waterfront. Yes, we had laundry and a kitchen, but I was grocery shopping and cooking every meal. Linens were not provided, so we schlepped that and made the beds. Aside from the ocean -- which was awesome! -- on rainy days, there wasn't a ton to do, and the local arcade was expensive. If we wanted to do anything, we had to drive and pay parking. My husband can't walk far/long, so a lot of strolling downtown ended up being a bust and not enjoyable. That trip cost almost as much as a week at Disney for us, and it was wayyyyy less convenient and a ton of WORK while on "vacation."

We go weekly in the summer to our local Six Flags to use the water park. The food is horrible and just as expensive as WDW, but the quality is totally inferior. It's cost effective for us to go since it's so close, but we'd be easily spending $400 a day if just visiting for a day visit, which would be a "one and done" if we had to do it that way.

Went to see some major concerts this year, $15-$20 for a drink or crappy hot dog/pizza slice at the stadium. That's going rate anywhere, and the food was so bad, I would have gladly paid Boma/Crystal Palace prices for food of that quality if it was available!

Disney IS expensive, but I'm not seeing a ton of "deals" anywhere else, either, especially when we're approaching needing two rooms versus cramming us on two queens in a regular hotel.

When at WDW on DVC, I am looking at the long game of trips. We've done multiple extended family trips that never would happen trying to coordinate several rooms paying cash. Awesome memories while the kids are young, bringing their cousin and friends.

We have several DVC family friends who coordinate trips with us. More fun!

My husband's mobility is limited. I rent him a scooter every trip now, and the difference in his mood/outlook NOT being in constant pain is night and day. Happy hubby=much more enjoyable trips that HE can participate in. If he's tired, he can go back to the room easily to rest and regroup. Plus, he loves shopping and throwing the goodies in his scooter basket, LOL. Disney is so convenient for this reason.

The kids know how to get around the parks. They're too young to turn loose, but as a parent, we are much more relaxed with them eventually staying out late at the parks versus any other public vacation spot where we may not have a vehicle to get to them ICE. I'm sure as they get older and want to ditch us periodically, or sleep in while we go out for breakfast, it'll be nice to be together AND separate as our body clocks change.

We're looking forward to grandchildren, hopefully, and we can certainly babysit at WDW with all our creature comforts while mom and dad get an evening out.

There's no summer cottage or lakehouse for our kids to inherit, but a free contract at Riviera and/or Poly that they just need to cover MFs on seems like a great gift for them to use when we're gone. If they choose to sell, no problem. I'm sure they'll recoup what we paid in by year 2040ish, if not way sooner.

Our extended family is scattering/dying off. It's shrinking to our core four. I still host Christmas, but after 25 years, this mom's tired. My sister and her husband and daughter and our core four are now booking yearly WDW Thanksgiving trips so no one has to cook. She's going away every Easter with her friends' families. My husband's parents are gone, and he only talks to one sister out of his three. All his nieces and nephews are much older and scattered throughout the country.

My dad's Stage IV and has already made it past his expected timeline, and my mom won't be going anywhere without him, so we're making memories on holidays while we can. We would LOVE if my parents came to WDW with us, but they won't leave their locale. I'm grateful we get to do trips with my sister and BIL and niece. That's all we have left! I figure WDW is convenient for family meetups on future holidays. If our kids want to do something different as they get older, we can rent our points and use the cash to go somewhere else, but the convenience is really great, and the accommodations are lovely with DVC.

Lastly, having a kitchen and laundry in the room, Owners Lockers of all our WDW gear that we don't have to pack -- DVC really is our home away from home. We don't rush anymore on vacation, and that's awesome.