DVC direct sales continue downward slide

[DVC Mike]

Per data gathered by Wil [wdrl] and published on DVCNews and summarized on *******, Disney Vacation Club's year-over-year sales fell again in 2015 - continuing a trend that started in 2012.

What do you think accounts for the continued drop in sales volume?

Should DVC be concerned?




http://i235.************************************************************* DVC Mike - *******.com

 

[onestitchloose]

Most (if not all) of 2015 was Aulani and Polynesian. I can imagine people don't want Aulani as their home resort when many may never think of going there in the first place. Secondly, there was a real restriction on room types at the Polynesian. Be interested to see if it picks up when these 2 resorts change?

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I just received an email from The Timeshare Store and about fell over with some of the prices! BWV 170 points selling for $115, BCV 60 points selling for $130.... Is this somehow linked to the Disney Direct pricing? Has there been a price adjustment for the resales?

 

[lovin'fl]

Wonder what 2005 to 2009 looked like?

 

[southerngirl528]

DVCMike, as a very longtime member, I think DVC is pricing themselves out of the market personally. There is a lovely Marriott owned in my family and I would definitely put it up against any DVC resort in every way. To be fair, it is one of the highest demand TS in the Marriott collection and the family member paid a big chunk for it.

I do agree that only having Aulani and Poly Villas to sell has been a big contributor to the overall sales. Most DVC members are East Coasters and for most Aulani is not a good home resort choice. And as a longtime member I don't care for the Poly simply because it has NO 1 bdrm villas. DH and I are spoiled to staying in a 1 bedroom even with just 2 of us. That's one of the big perks of membership, IMHO.

Lastly, the leadership of DVC over the last dozen years or so has been, well…interesting to say the least. Most of the leaders have had other big parts of Disney they were also over so DVC doesn't get their full attention. And the longtime friends I have that are still working DVC say that the new director of sales, who hails from Orange Lake, is hiring lots of his old contemporaries. Friends tell me it has definitely changed the culture at DVC. Not sure how much this has changed the actual sales, but I can tell you that if I had had a guide back in the early 90's that was the slightest bit pushy or non-"Disney", I would have walked. I cannot stand that kind of salesmanship.

 

[hcortesis]

The Canadian dollar is at the worst point in about 13 years in comparison to the U.S. dollar. $160 per point converts to $236 per point for us.

 

[DisneyRegulars]

Per data gathered by Wil [wdrl] and published on DVCNews and summarized on *******, Disney Vacation Club's year-over-year sales fell again in 2015 - continuing a trend that started in 2012.

What do you think accounts for the continued drop in sales volume?

Should DVC be concerned?

View attachment 145625

What are the units on that graph? Points? If so, I would bet they are still making more profit due to the huge price increases these past few years. I don't think DVC has anything to be worried about just yet. Can someone convert that graph to estimated revenue per point based on yearly point prices?

 

[dclpluto]

It's the price that is driving sales down.also the economy is really bad.

 

[DVC Mike]

What are the units on that graph? Points? If so, I would bet they are still making more profit due to the huge price increases these past few years. I don't think DVC has anything to be worried about just yet. Can someone convert that graph to estimated revenue per point based on yearly point prices?

It's points. The number of points sold appears to be declining while the cost per point keeps rising. When does DVC reach a tipping point when the cost per point is high enough to turn away enough people to cause profits to fall?

 

[Anal Annie]

It's the pricing per point. It's out of control. There are better value timeshares out there for the average family. If I was a newbie looking to buy in I wouldn't be off-put by the choices being Aulani or the Poly (I would love to be able to afford either) but the pricing would scare the you know what right out of me!! It's now only within reach of the very richest families. And even at that I would think the contracts would be a lot smaller than they used to be. When we bought (direct) we paid $86 / point for 250 points = $21,500. NOW what it is it per point? $165 / point I think I last heard? More? For the same $21,500 you can only buy 130 points. That will cut down on how many points you sell in a hurry. People can't afford the giant size contracts they used to be able to buy. JM2C.

 

[wdrl]

Keep in mind that in 2010 DVD was actively marketing Bay Lake Tower (5.7 million points); the Kidani Village portion of AKV (5.6 million points), the Treehouse Villa portion of SSR (900,000 points), and the Villas at Grand Californian (1.9 million points). Also, in 2010 DVD marketed OKW as a low price alternative and sold about 100,000 points for that resort.

Not only did DVD have a huge amount of inventory, it was very aggressive in offering discounts and incentives to direct buyers. Cruises, Park tickets, sliding cash incentives, developer points were being offered at one time or another to entice buyers. Also, remember that DVD did not charge closing costs to members that added on points.

Once sales started in 2013 for the Villas at Grand Floridian, DVD stopped offering discounts or incentives for the WDW properties. Even the normal practice of offering a discount to Cast Members was discontinued. With the Polynesian Villas & Bungalows, DVD has continued this practice of not offering discounts (well, technically, there is a $5 per point discount on purchases of 2,000 points or more, but I'm not going to count it as a plausible discount for most buyers).

Since 2010, DVD has probably cut operating expenses in its sales division. It probably has a smaller sales force now than in 2010, and its closed the Doorway to Dreams sales offices in New York and Chicago. I imagine that DVD is quite happy selling fewer points at $168 than more points at a much lower price. Combined with the reduced overhead, DVD might be realizing as much profit today as it was in 2010.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Not only did DVD have a huge amount of inventory, it was very aggressive in offering discounts and incentives to direct buyers.

That inventory was also considerably more diverse. There is limited appeal of Poly as home resort to anyone who wants 1 or 2BR units as their standard for travel. Aulani is not a good home resort for most buyers, save those out west, or Japanese/Chinese buyers.

 

[Anal Annie]

Keep in mind that in 2010 DVD was actively marketing Bay Lake Tower (5.7 million points); the Kidani Village portion of AKV (5.6 million points), the Treehouse Villa portion of SSR (900,000 points), and the Villas at Grand Californian (1.9 million points). Also, in 2010 DVD marketed OKW as a low price alternative and sold about 100,000 points for that resort.

Not only did DVD have a huge amount of inventory, it was very aggressive in offering discounts and incentives to direct buyers. Cruises, Park tickets, sliding cash incentives, developer points were being offered at one time or another to entice buyers. Also, remember that DVD did not charge closing costs to members that added on points.

Once sales started in 2013 for the Villas at Grand Floridian, DVD stopped offering discounts or incentives for the WDW properties. Even the normal practice of offering a discount to Cast Members was discontinued. With the Polynesian Villas & Bungalows, DVD has continued this practice of not offering discounts (well, technically, there is a $5 per point discount on purchases of 2,000 points or more, but I'm not going to count it as a plausible discount for most buyers).

Since 2010, DVD has probably cut operating expenses in its sales division. It probably has a smaller sales force now than in 2010, and its closed the Doorway to Dreams sales offices in New York and Chicago. I imagine that DVD is quite happy selling fewer points at $168 than more points at a much lower price. Combined with the reduced overhead, DVD might be realizing as much profit today as it was in 2010.

Do we still even HAVE our own individual guides? Our first guide was amazing. Very friendly, helpful & communicative. Whenever we went on a trip he would always leave us a message to let us know he knew we were there etc. Then he left after our first couple of years of ownership and we were "assigned" to some other girl. I don't even know her name or if she's still there bcuz other than the initial call to say "hey I'm your new guide" we haven't heard from her. I'd say they've definitely cut their overhead.

 

[supersnoop]

I'd have to see revenue before I pass judgement. I'd imagine they're increasing rev up while selling fewer points in an effort to lengthen the time between construction projects and prevent overbuilding. I doubt they want to be saddled with extra inventory.

 

[JulieWent]

For us, it would be both the price and the continued rise of yearly dues. When we first bought in to BWV, points were $62 per, and our maintenance, yearly was around $600. This year, we'll be paying $900 for those same points. We have seriously begun thinking about selling, not because we cannot afford the yearly fees, but because we are thinking about what else we could do with $1800 per year (we now own two contracts) and with the $30,000 we would get from selling our 300 points.
There is also an issue with the cost of the new resorts. The price DVC is asking for Poly (and the outrageous number of points needed to even think about renting a bungalow, for instance) completely turns us off. There was a time when I would have snatched up a contract at Poly. But not anymore.
I think there is a definite break point, even for those of us who are die-hard Disney fans.

 

[crisi]

I think the market is getting saturated. How many every year or every other year visitors does Disney have? Eventually, they'll have exhausted the people for whom DVC makes sense. And I suspect they are getting closer to that point. The resale market has capacity for people who are buying in new and are informed. Also, the middle class in America is shrinking, and DVC is an upper middle class product. The truly wealthy don't need a timeshare, a suite in a resort will meet their needs better. And its a luxury, you don't buy DVC if you are just getting by. With fewer people falling into the middle class, Disney may have a tough time.

 

[Peepster]

JulieWent, I couldn't agree with you more and I completely echo your thoughts. They are now in the process of "killing" our beloved Villas at Wilderness Lodge. We remember the 10th anniversary of the Lodge and the reverence of the blessings of the Native Americans on that occasion. It was unexpectedly moving.

We, too, are thinking of selling as we could never afford to stay in the new VWL bungalows or whatever they will be called and the peace of the Villas, which was our reason for purchasing, will never return.

With the rise in our fees and the seeming abundance of greed in the company, we are finding many more "bang for our buck" vacation spots for our disposable income.

Yet, we're gullible enough to hope some new management will come along and set things right. (This us where you laugh.)

 

[CraigInPA]

As a prospective purchaser of the Poly, I ultimately decided to go resale for BLT. Why? I loved the old Poly, before DVC and the huge renovation. Now, the old Poly, as I remember it, is gone. In addition to the renovation results, I wasn't thrilled that they converted the longhouses that were always "second tier" choices for those in the know (due primarily to the location near TTC). And the final nail in the coffin was the $165 per point price combined with the high number of points to book a studio. When I did the math, it would have been almost cheaper to stay in a regular hotel room there at 30%-35% off (which I've gotten for my last 10 visits).

If you adjust the chart by multiplying the number of points by the price per point that year, you'll see that they're doing quite well selling fewer points.

 

[JimMIA]

I'd have to see revenue before I pass judgement. I'd imagine they're increasing rev up while selling fewer points in an effort to lengthen the time between construction projects and prevent overbuilding. I doubt they want to be saddled with extra inventory.

Exactly. It's all about the money. Points don't matter.

 

[southerngirl528]

Do we still even HAVE our own individual guides?

Yes. It may have changed several times, but every member has an assigned guide, or is an "orphan" and you could receive a call from DVC telemarketing to match you up with a new guide. Also, "orphan" members are placed into campaigns for brand new guides that can make contact and "adopt" you.