DVC Club Level and Home Resort Survey

[thadhouse]

The trust could trivially do a 10 month booking window without violating the individual resort POS's. Its the trust that owns the points, so its just the trust itself that has to be able to book at 11 months, just like direct owners. But there's nothing stopping the trust from restricting its owners to only be able to book at 10 months. That doesn't violate the individual resort POS's because its the trust booking the rooms, not the trust owners. Its the same thing as a current owner not booking until 10 months.

This also makes adding restrictions onto which rooms the trust can book trivial too. The trust _could_ book them, and thats all the POS requires. The trust could absolutely restrict its owners from booking certain rooms at certain times though.

All of those restrictions would be in the trust POS, and wouldn't affect the individual resorts at all, as long as its not _better_ than the individual deeded owners.

 

[accm]

Walking wouldn’t work for a Trust Owner, because it’s not just about 11 month availability, it’s also about how much the trust has left in that UY for that resort.

But that's what I mean. If they have a limited number of points at a resort, people would book a reservation on the first day of the UY, and walk it to ensure they have access to those points when they want to travel.

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t see Disney writing the trust to give existing members a 1 month advantage over new purchasers, tbh.

If it is deemed to be a conflict with the current POS, they might.

 

[Sandisw]

But they don't have more access. There are only a set number of owners at a resort. Those same number of points can be booked. The trust can only reserve the number of points that it owns at any given resort.

One option is that if the trust owns 20% of a resort, then they could allocate 20% of each unit type for each checkin day to be available for trust owners to reserve. Other timeshare systems have very similar requirements regarding reservation priorities and they setup trusts and somehow make them work within the limits of the underlying documents.

Marriott also has lottery provisions in their reservation procedures for trust owners, though to this date they haven't used a lottery system for allocating reservations.

It’s not about number of points, it’s about how many people are grabbing rooms at the same time with one set of points.

For example, I have 175 RIv points in one of my membership. To use those points I can only book one room at a time. No one else can log onto my account and book at second room, even if we are not going to exceed 175.

But, if the trust gives multiple people access to their points at the same time, to book as many rooms as they want until points are gone, they have an advantage over me.

And, it would definitely be a violation of the current contract for the trust to take rooms away from other owners to match percent of points at the current resorts.

First come, first serve means all declared units must be made available to every owner

So, as far as I am concerned, that doesn’t mesh with DVD having to follow the same rules as the rest of us.

 

[Sandisw]

But allowing 10 months for trust owners would actually work against them and lock them out of those BCV F&W dates because those would all be booked up by traditional point ownerships. Those points in the trust have the same reservation rights as other points at the resort. The deeds are the same.

They are the same…and if the trust owned points at sold out resorts were held back, it would be a decision by DVD to avoid being in potential violation of the contract because they have to follow the same rules as you or I.

And, setting up multiple accounts to access one set of points is not following the same rules since DVD won’t let me do the same.

And, I’ll go further to say that if the trust is the owner and not DVD, then some of the rules for point ownership thst only apply to DVD should not apply to the trust.

New resorts and units can be set up anyone they want. It’s just adding units from sold out resorts that I think could be an issue.

 

[Sandisw]

In your case, then, this would mean that Poly2 was a completely separate condo association.

Because the POS gives DVD the authority to add new phrases without owners approval, I think they way it could work is that the units at Poly tower are added to the existing association but not to be sold as deeded interests.

They are added and then put into the trust and sold as part of a non specific timeshare. Because they are part of PVB, all owners get access to however many have been declared and put in the trust since technically it’s a new owner. And, DVD might be able to even add a different set of rules for the units that are part of the trust because they are a new phase.

 

[Cfabar1]

I wonder if it could work where the systems don't interact until say 6 months. I still maintain easiest is to just start with new resorts at first.

But maybe old system 11/7 months
new system you can start booking at say 10 months (or whatever) within the trust

then at 6 months, availability opens up between the two systems where you can "exchange" between them.

The question is, could DVD break out certain points from the rest of the availability, and how would they apportion that... How is that fair to the deeded owners? That's what I struggle with, but maybe they have a way around it.

Separately, who is the right person at DVC to contact expressing our fears and displeasure at this proposal? To me, we have seen nearly ever other major system go to this model and seen the massive devaluation accompanied with it. I'm not eager to see our beloved DVC head down this path.

 

[Sandisw]

Actually just thought of something that I think I know the answer to, but am not sure, so I'd defer to someone with more knowledge, perhaps @Sandisw ...

I know that single owners are capped at 4,000 points, but I don't believe the developer is, otherwise, they couldn't maintain their 2% ownership, I would think. Just wanted to verify that.

Correct. DVD doesn’t have to be capped. The only current rules that DVD must follow that is the same for you and I is booking. They must wait until 11 months to use their points.

 

[Sandisw]

Isn't Disney already the biggest renter of DVC inventory? Can't they rent out built but undeclared inventory as well as declared inventory that they haven't sold yet?

Declared inventory is made available to all owners. DVD can book those rooms with unsold points but only if they aren’t booked by another owner. They get access to them like the rest of us.

The units not yet declared are not part of the condo association and never have to be added. So, DVD gets to rent them for cash because they are not yet part of DVC.

That’s why if they wanted to, they could take all the rooms at RIv, not yet declared and decide to never do that, create a new association and put them right into the trust.

 

[Sandisw]

I wonder if it could work where the systems don't interact until say 6 months. I still maintain easiest is to just start with new resorts at first.

But maybe old system 11/7 months
new system you can start booking at say 10 months (or whatever) within the trust

then at 6 months, availability opens up between the two systems where you can "exchange" between them.

The question is, could DVD break out certain points from the rest of the availability, and how would they apportion that... How is that fair to the deeded owners? That's what I struggle with, but maybe they have a way around it.

Separately, who is the right person at DVC to contact expressing our fears and displeasure at this proposal? To me, we have seen nearly ever other major system go to this model and seen the massive devaluation accompanied with it. I'm not eager to see our beloved DVC head down this path.

Declared units can’t be partitioned off to anyone in the current resorts based on the POS . So, say DVD owns 5% of the resort, they can’t take 5% of the rooms every year away from other owners.

My plan is to try to get a call back from someone in Changs office to let them know concerns.

 

[ehh]

Ehh's Bold Predictions
How I Think the DVC Trust System Will Work

I think I'm ready to 'call my shot' for how I think this will all this will work, based on what I've learned about other Trust systems, what I know about DVC, and what I know generally about complex corporate initiatives (they want to reuse as much development work as possible and keep things simple for development, employees, and customers).

I think a lot of my predictions are level-headed and keep the overall product and sub-products nearly as simple as possible. I think existing Deed owners will be happy with them, while also giving a Trust system space/functionality to be an upsell for DVC.

This is totally my speculation, and I am absolutely getting some (or all, lol) of this wrong!


How I think it will work for members

• Trust purchasers/members will be able to book at 11 months at their 'home resort collection'
• Deed purchasers/members will be able to book at 11 months at their home resorts, exactly as it is now
• No changes whatsoever to existing deeded ownership, all the way down to existing inventory
  • If you want to be a deed-only owner, you might not even notice that the Trust system exists, except for the marketing
• Booking process (i.e., the UX/UI) for Trust members will be very similar to how it is now--search will show you what's bookable
  • If an owner has both Deeded points and Trust points, they might need to set which they are searching against, similar to how multiple-UY owners set which membership they are using for their search currently
    • Search results will show what is bookable, based on the membership/points selected
• Depending how a mixed-owner searches, they may see different inventory available, or everyone may see all inventory, I'm undecided
  • Regardless, DVC will continue to not easily expose specific room category inventory (e.g., there's 71 rooms in a category available for Deeds, 42 for Trust), but under the hood it'll exist (even if it's completely unaccessible, even when looking at the JSON responses)
  • How a single search may show all inventory: they could use some color coding, like Apple does with blue/green bubbles in iMessage
    • One color for 'bookable by all', another for 'bookable with Trust points', another for 'bookable with Deed points'
      • They already kinda do this with park reservations at Disneyland/DCA
• The 'home resort collection' is the same for every Trust contract, there will not be different levels of Trusts
• The Trust will start with multiple 'home' resorts in the collection and will grow over time
  • e.g., initial home resorts may include CFW, Riviera, Aulani, Polynesian, and Disneyland Hotel, and later add Yacht Club, Reflections, Disneyland2, etc.
• At 7 months, all direct Trust points can be used anywhere, including available Deed inventory
• At 7 months, all direct Deed points can be used anywhere, including available Trust inventory
• Trust points can be banked and borrowed, same rules as Deed points
• The points charts will be the same across Deed and Trust, and they will update in lockstep (in fact, they will never be differentiated)
• Resale restrictions will still exist in some form, but I'm not sure how exactly (favoring Baseline + Opt3)
  • Baseline assumption: resale restricted Deed contracts (e.g., RIV/VDH resale) will never get 7m access to Trust inventory, except maybe at the same resort
  • Opt1: if RIV or VDH aren't included the 'home resort collection', they're totally excluded from resale Trust contracts
  • Opt2: resale Trust contracts may not get access to 7m deed inventory at VDH/RIV/CFW/etc.
  • Opt3: resale Trust contracts may not get access to 7m deed inventory at all
• Trust contracts will be sold as an upsell, at time of initial purchase
  • They'll call it the Always Home Collection™ or something; neither "DVC2" nor "Palmetto" will be in their lexicon
  • "You say you want to buy 200 points at Poly, but for just $15/pt more, you can upgrade your points to the Always Home Collection and add CFW, RIV, VDH, and AUL as home resorts!"
    • In reality, the upsell amount will be variable, as different resorts will have different post-incentive pricing.
    • Always Home Collection will have its own pricing and incentives, so the upsell gap will vary
• Existing contracts cannot be upgraded to Trusts
  • If you want to convert, sell your deeded contracts and buy Trust contracts
    • Maybe DVC offers a program for this, but I think it's unlikely
• Deed contracts will continue to be available for purchase at all non-sold out resorts (and sold out resorts, if we're being honest)
  • e.g., you'll be able to buy deeded Poly2 for as long as Poly2 is not sold out, while you'll always be able to buy a Trust contract that includes Poly2 (or at least until the Poly resort expires)
  • But if you call your guide to buy sold out AKV points, you probably won't be offered a Trust contract as AKV will ~never be included
• Already sold out resorts will never enter the Trust, unless they expand (e.g., Poly) or Unit 1A is added (see below)
• Therefore, there will not be a mass ROFR wave to fill the Trust
• ROFR'd deeded contacts will not make their way into the Trust unless DVC can ROFR an entire Unit (see below)
• There will not be a renting portal created initially (or maybe ever), existing renting rules will apply
• On a long enough time range, hard to get rooms will be exceptionally hard to get for Trust owners
• The Trust may only have a single UY
  • If it does only have a single UY, it'll be January or October (I think January makes more sense...but Disney's fiscal year begins in October)
• New resorts will still have 50 (or 51) years before resort expiration
• Resort expiration dates are when inventory will leave the Trust
• Trust contract expiration dates are either going to be Dec 31 (or Sep 30), but 51 years from the year it's purchased or equivalent to the maximum expiration date of deeded resorts being currently sold
  • Maybe they sell shorter Trusts? Or let people choose a shorter expiration (but no change to cost)
• The Trust system is not an overt expansion into Moderates, though DVC may continue to consume Moderate properties to build DVC properties

How I think it will work for DVC (and how some of it works under the hood)

• Inventory will be based on declaration Units
  • As a reminder: Units are a collection of rooms, and can be found in the Condo plans
    • Units can be quantified by points, but are more defined than just a quantity of points
  • A single Unit will never be divided between Deed and Trust systems
    • In other words, it will not be sold in both Deeds and entered into the Trust inventory
  • Only whole Units can go into Deed inventory (as it is today)
  • Only whole Units can go into Trust inventory
  • Trust points cannot be used to access Deed inventory between 11m and 7m
  • Deed points cannot be used to access Trust inventory between 11m and 7m
  • Units in each respective inventory will be available every booking day of the year (such as it is today with Deed inventory) for their respective owners
    • As examples:
      • If 200 CFW Cabins are entered into Trust inventory and 150 are entered into the Deed inventory, that 200/150 ratio is permanent
        • Trust owners can book from 200 cabins between 11m and 7m. year round
        • Deed owners can book from 150 cabins between 11m and 7m, year round
      • If 80x VDH Studios, 10x Duos, 6x 2BR, 4x 2BRLO, and 1x GV are entered into Trust inventory, that quantity is permanent
        • Trust owners can book from 80x Deluxe Studios, 10x Duos, 6x 2BR, 4x 2BRLO, and 1x GV, year round
• Said another way: Trust DVC and Deed DVC will have, behind the scenes, completely separate inventory from 11m to 7m
  • At 7m they'll effectively merge via BVTC, at least for non-resale
• DVD will declare an initial set of Units from the non-sold out resorts that gives them a diverse inventory for the Trust
  • Total initial inventory may be very large relative to initial sales considering they will add 'diverse inventory' from up to 5 resorts
  • A large initial inventory will also fight against 'hard to book' narrative/nature of Trusts
• DVD will add inventory to the Trust via declaring Units (similar to today with deeds) into the Trust, but proportional to existing demand, as much as possible
  • Proportionality will take into account how fast deeded resorts are selling compared to Trust
    • Example, if RIV+CFW+VDH+Poly2+AUL deeded points sell combined at the same rate as Trust points, they'll add new Units to the Trust at the same rate that they declare Units for deeded sale
      • If Trust points sell 2x as fast as Deed points, then Units gets declared into the Trust 2x as fast
  • DVD may proactively 'overstuff' a resort into the Trust if they suspect it will be popular longterm
    • This may result in Riviera effectively selling out immediately, to make sure there's decent Trust inventory (as ~2/3rds of RIV is already permanently declared in the Deed inventory)
    • Something like Poly2, which has the additional complexity of being an expansion and managing bookable inventory, might mean that they do it all day 1: 50% goes into the Trust bucket, 50% declared into the Deed bucket
      • The 50% in the Deed bucket will take some time to sell out, of course
• There will be two 'sell out dates' for resorts:
  • The date deeded sales 'sell out'
  • The date the final Unit is added to Trust inventory; I expect this date to be roughly 1 year prior to deed sales ending due to 'sell out' status
• Unit 1A, which DVC has semi-infamously held back from assignment in deeds at a bunch (all?) of resorts, may be entered into the Trust to expand the Home Resort Collection, though I think it's unlikely
  • This would need to be offset by an appropriate amount of ownership via other means in order to satisfy the 2% rule in FL
  • This would be a hollow offering and I strongly suspect they will not do it: it would let them say that the Trust has Beach Club or whatever, but in reality barely add any inventory at all and probably cause more frustration/ill-will than simply not doing it
• Trust Dues will be determined by a proportional mix of the points in the Trust and will effectively be an average of 'modern' resorts (as only 'modern' resorts will be in the Trust)
• Annual publication of this proportional mix is how owners will primarily be informed about Trust inventory
  • Maybe there will be additional transparency, but unlikely
• The Trust system does not solve their 2042 problems (especially not the OKW problem)

I think Trust sales will begin October 2024. Riviera will sell out shortly after as most of the remaining undeclared inventory gets declared into the Trust. Poly2 deed sales will also begin at around this time. I expect the Trust to typically cost $25/pt over the going rate of the for-sale deeded resorts, possibly increasing over time as more Trust properties become Sold Out properties.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Ehh's Bold Predictions
How I Think the DVC Trust System Will Work

I think I'm ready to 'call my shot' for how I think this will all this will work, based on what I've learned about other Trust systems, what I know about DVC, and what I know generally about complex corporate initiatives (they want to reuse as much development work as possible and keep things simple for development, employees, and customers).

I think a lot of my predictions are level-headed and keep the overall product and sub-products nearly as simple as possible. I think existing Deed owners will be happy with them, while also giving a Trust system space/functionality to be an upsell for DVC.

This is totally my speculation, and I am absolutely getting some (or all, lol) of this wrong!


How I think it will work for members

• Trust purchasers/members will be able to book at 11 months at their 'home resort collection'
• Deed purchasers/members will be able to book at 11 months at their home resorts, exactly as it is now
• No changes whatsoever to existing deeded ownership, all the way down to existing inventory
  • If you want to be a deed-only owner, you might not even notice that the Trust system exists, except for the marketing
• Booking process (i.e., the UX/UI) for Trust members will be very similar to how it is now--search will show you what's bookable
  • If an owner has both Deeded points and Trust points, they might need to set which they are searching against, similar to how multiple-UY owners set which membership they are using for their search currently
    • Search results will show what is bookable, based on the membership/points selected
• Depending how a mixed-owner searches, they may see different inventory available, or everyone may see all inventory, I'm undecided
  • Regardless, DVC will continue to not easily expose specific room category inventory (e.g., there's 71 rooms in a category available for Deeds, 42 for Trust), but under the hood it'll exist (even if it's completely unaccessible, even when looking at the JSON responses)
  • How a single search may show all inventory: they could use some color coding, like Apple does with blue/green bubbles in iMessage
    • One color for 'bookable by all', another for 'bookable with Trust points', another for 'bookable with Deed points'
      • They already kinda do this with park reservations at Disneyland/DCA
• The 'home resort collection' is the same for every Trust contract, there will not be different levels of Trusts
• The Trust will start with multiple 'home' resorts in the collection and will grow over time
  • e.g., initial home resorts may include CFW, Riviera, Aulani, Polynesian, and Disneyland Hotel, and later add Yacht Club, Reflections, Disneyland2, etc.
• At 7 months, all direct Trust points can be used anywhere, including available Deed inventory
• At 7 months, all direct Deed points can be used anywhere, including available Trust inventory
• Trust points can be banked and borrowed, same rules as Deed points
• The points charts will be the same across Deed and Trust, and they will update in lockstep (in fact, they will never be differentiated)
• Resale restrictions will still exist in some form, but I'm not sure how exactly (favoring Baseline + Opt3)
  • Baseline assumption: resale restricted Deed contracts (e.g., RIV/VDH resale) will never get 7m access to Trust inventory, except maybe at the same resort
  • Opt1: if RIV or VDH aren't included the 'home resort collection', they're totally excluded from resale Trust contracts
  • Opt2: resale Trust contracts may not get access to 7m deed inventory at VDH/RIV/CFW/etc.
  • Opt3: resale Trust contracts may not get access to 7m deed inventory at all
• Trust contracts will be sold as an upsell, at time of initial purchase
  • They'll call it the Always Home Collection™ or something; neither "DVC2" nor "Palmetto" will be in their lexicon
  • "You say you want to buy 200 points at Poly, but for just $15/pt more, you can upgrade your points to the Always Home Collection and add CFW, RIV, VDH, and AUL as home resorts!"
    • In reality, the upsell amount will be variable, as different resorts will have different post-incentive pricing.
    • Always Home Collection will have its own pricing and incentives, so the upsell gap will vary
• Existing contracts cannot be upgraded to Trusts
  • If you want to convert, sell your deeded contracts and buy Trust contracts
    • Maybe DVC offers a program for this, but I think it's unlikely
• Deed contracts will continue to be available for purchase at all non-sold out resorts (and sold out resorts, if we're being honest)
  • e.g., you'll be able to buy deeded Poly2 for as long as Poly2 is not sold out, while you'll always be able to buy a Trust contract that includes Poly2 (or at least until the Poly resort expires)
  • But if you call your guide to buy sold out AKV points, you probably won't be offered a Trust contract as AKV will ~never be included
• Already sold out resorts will never enter the Trust, unless they expand (e.g., Poly) or Unit 1A is added (see below)
• Therefore, there will not be a mass ROFR wave to fill the Trust
• ROFR'd deeded contacts will not make their way into the Trust unless DVC can ROFR an entire Unit (see below)
• There will not be a renting portal created initially (or maybe ever), existing renting rules will apply
• On a long enough time range, hard to get rooms will be exceptionally hard to get for Trust owners
• The Trust may only have a single UY
  • If it does only have a single UY, it'll be January or October (I think January makes more sense...but Disney's fiscal year begins in October)
• New resorts will still have 50 (or 51) years before resort expiration
• Resort expiration dates are when inventory will leave the Trust
• Trust contract expiration dates are either going to be Dec 31 (or Sep 30), but 51 years from the year it's purchased or equivalent to the maximum expiration date of deeded resorts being currently sold
  • Maybe they sell shorter Trusts? Or let people choose a shorter expiration (but no change to cost)
• The Trust system is not an overt expansion into Moderates, though DVC may continue to consume Moderate properties to build DVC properties

How I think it will work for DVC (and how some of it works under the hood)

• Inventory will be based on declaration Units
  • As a reminder: Units are a collection of rooms, and can be found in the Condo plans
    • Units can be quantified by points, but are more defined than just a quantity of points
  • A single Unit will never be divided between Deed and Trust systems
    • In other words, it will not be sold in both Deeds and entered into the Trust inventory
  • Only whole Units can go into Deed inventory (as it is today)
  • Only whole Units can go into Trust inventory
  • Trust points cannot be used to access Deed inventory between 11m and 7m
  • Deed points cannot be used to access Trust inventory between 11m and 7m
  • Units in each respective inventory will be available every booking day of the year (such as it is today with Deed inventory) for their respective owners
    • As examples:
      • If 200 CFW Cabins are entered into Trust inventory and 150 are entered into the Deed inventory, that 200/150 ratio is permanent
        • Trust owners can book from 200 cabins between 11m and 7m. year round
        • Deed owners can book from 150 cabins between 11m and 7m, year round
      • If 80x VDH Studios, 10x Duos, 6x 2BR, 4x 2BRLO, and 1x GV are entered into Trust inventory, that quantity is permanent
        • Trust owners can book from 80x Deluxe Studios, 10x Duos, 6x 2BR, 4x 2BRLO, and 1x GV, year round
• Said another way: Trust DVC and Deed DVC will have, behind the scenes, completely separate inventory from 11m to 7m
  • At 7m they'll effectively merge via BVTC, at least for non-resale
• DVD will declare an initial set of Units from the non-sold out resorts that gives them a diverse inventory for the Trust
  • Total initial inventory may be very large relative to initial sales considering they will add 'diverse inventory' from up to 5 resorts
  • A large initial inventory will also fight against 'hard to book' narrative/nature of Trusts
• DVD will add inventory to the Trust via declaring Units (similar to today with deeds) into the Trust, but proportional to existing demand, as much as possible
  • Proportionality will take into account how fast deeded resorts are selling compared to Trust
    • Example, if RIV+CFW+VDH+Poly2+AUL deeded points sell combined at the same rate as Trust points, they'll add new Units to the Trust at the same rate that they declare Units for deeded sale
      • If Trust points sell 2x as fast as Deed points, then Units gets declared into the Trust 2x as fast
  • DVD may proactively 'overstuff' a resort into the Trust if they suspect it will be popular longterm
    • This may result in Riviera effectively selling out immediately, to make sure there's decent Trust inventory (as ~2/3rds of RIV is already permanently declared in the Deed inventory)
    • Something like Poly2, which has the additional complexity of being an expansion and managing bookable inventory, might mean that they do it all day 1: 50% goes into the Trust bucket, 50% declared into the Deed bucket
      • The 50% in the Deed bucket will take some time to sell out, of course
• There will be two 'sell out dates' for resorts:
  • The date deeded sales 'sell out'
  • The date the final Unit is added to Trust inventory; I expect this date to be roughly 1 year prior to deed sales ending due to 'sell out' status
• Unit 1A, which DVC has semi-infamously held back from assignment in deeds at a bunch (all?) of resorts, may be entered into the Trust to expand the Home Resort Collection, though I think it's unlikely
  • This would need to be offset by an appropriate amount of ownership via other means in order to satisfy the 2% rule in FL
  • This would be a hollow offering and I strongly suspect they will not do it: it would let them say that the Trust has Beach Club or whatever, but in reality barely add any inventory at all and probably cause more frustration/ill-will than simply not doing it
• Trust Dues will be determined by a proportional mix of the points in the Trust and will effectively be an average of 'modern' resorts (as only 'modern' resorts will be in the Trust)
• Annual publication of this proportional mix is how owners will primarily be informed about Trust inventory
  • Maybe there will be additional transparency, but unlikely
• The Trust system does not solve their 2042 problems (especially not the OKW problem)

I think Trust sales will begin October 2024. Riviera will sell out shortly after as most of the remaining undeclared inventory gets declared into the Trust. Poly2 deed sales will also begin at around this time. I expect the Trust to typically cost $25/pt over the going rate of the for-sale deeded resorts, possibly increasing over time as more Trust properties become Sold Out properties.

Wow. Amazing breakdown. That was actually incredibly helpful to continue my understanding about this whole process. I hope you’re right about a lot of this. Although I’m still skeptical, it doesn’t seem as awful as I had made it out to be in my head if it turns out to be similar to this. Thanks for taking the time.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

They'll call it the Always Home Collection™

Also this is very very good

 

[Royal Consort]

Although I’m still skeptical, it doesn’t seem as awful as I had made it out to be in my head if it turns out to be similar to this. Thanks for taking the time.

The issue arises longer term when availability becomes problematic at more popular resorts. Access will be throttled by how many DVC/Hunger Games members are trying to book prestige resorts. Let's say I'm in this system and want Riviera but so does everyone: I fight for the rooms each year to end up with availability mostly at CFW. Isnt this the type of issue that sinks other timeshares? With the deeded resorts you know exactly where you'll be staying (worst case) at 11 months. If owners find they generally struggle to book where they want, what happens to reputation and resale price?

 

[thadhouse]

Ehh's Bold Predictions
How I Think the DVC Trust System Will Work

I think I'm ready to 'call my shot' for how I think this will all this will work, based on what I've learned about other Trust systems, what I know about DVC, and what I know generally about complex corporate initiatives (they want to reuse as much development work as possible and keep things simple for development, employees, and customers).

I think a lot of my predictions are level-headed and keep the overall product and sub-products nearly as simple as possible. I think existing Deed owners will be happy with them, while also giving a Trust system space/functionality to be an upsell for DVC.

This is totally my speculation, and I am absolutely getting some (or all, lol) of this wrong!


How I think it will work for members

• Trust purchasers/members will be able to book at 11 months at their 'home resort collection'
• Deed purchasers/members will be able to book at 11 months at their home resorts, exactly as it is now
• No changes whatsoever to existing deeded ownership, all the way down to existing inventory
  • If you want to be a deed-only owner, you might not even notice that the Trust system exists, except for the marketing
• Booking process (i.e., the UX/UI) for Trust members will be very similar to how it is now--search will show you what's bookable
  • If an owner has both Deeded points and Trust points, they might need to set which they are searching against, similar to how multiple-UY owners set which membership they are using for their search currently
    • Search results will show what is bookable, based on the membership/points selected
• Depending how a mixed-owner searches, they may see different inventory available, or everyone may see all inventory, I'm undecided
  • Regardless, DVC will continue to not easily expose specific room category inventory (e.g., there's 71 rooms in a category available for Deeds, 42 for Trust), but under the hood it'll exist (even if it's completely unaccessible, even when looking at the JSON responses)
  • How a single search may show all inventory: they could use some color coding, like Apple does with blue/green bubbles in iMessage
    • One color for 'bookable by all', another for 'bookable with Trust points', another for 'bookable with Deed points'
      • They already kinda do this with park reservations at Disneyland/DCA
• The 'home resort collection' is the same for every Trust contract, there will not be different levels of Trusts
• The Trust will start with multiple 'home' resorts in the collection and will grow over time
  • e.g., initial home resorts may include CFW, Riviera, Aulani, Polynesian, and Disneyland Hotel, and later add Yacht Club, Reflections, Disneyland2, etc.
• At 7 months, all direct Trust points can be used anywhere, including available Deed inventory
• At 7 months, all direct Deed points can be used anywhere, including available Trust inventory
• Trust points can be banked and borrowed, same rules as Deed points
• The points charts will be the same across Deed and Trust, and they will update in lockstep (in fact, they will never be differentiated)
• Resale restrictions will still exist in some form, but I'm not sure how exactly (favoring Baseline + Opt3)
  • Baseline assumption: resale restricted Deed contracts (e.g., RIV/VDH resale) will never get 7m access to Trust inventory, except maybe at the same resort
  • Opt1: if RIV or VDH aren't included the 'home resort collection', they're totally excluded from resale Trust contracts
  • Opt2: resale Trust contracts may not get access to 7m deed inventory at VDH/RIV/CFW/etc.
  • Opt3: resale Trust contracts may not get access to 7m deed inventory at all
• Trust contracts will be sold as an upsell, at time of initial purchase
  • They'll call it the Always Home Collection™ or something; neither "DVC2" nor "Palmetto" will be in their lexicon
  • "You say you want to buy 200 points at Poly, but for just $15/pt more, you can upgrade your points to the Always Home Collection and add CFW, RIV, VDH, and AUL as home resorts!"
    • In reality, the upsell amount will be variable, as different resorts will have different post-incentive pricing.
    • Always Home Collection will have its own pricing and incentives, so the upsell gap will vary
• Existing contracts cannot be upgraded to Trusts
  • If you want to convert, sell your deeded contracts and buy Trust contracts
    • Maybe DVC offers a program for this, but I think it's unlikely
• Deed contracts will continue to be available for purchase at all non-sold out resorts (and sold out resorts, if we're being honest)
  • e.g., you'll be able to buy deeded Poly2 for as long as Poly2 is not sold out, while you'll always be able to buy a Trust contract that includes Poly2 (or at least until the Poly resort expires)
  • But if you call your guide to buy sold out AKV points, you probably won't be offered a Trust contract as AKV will ~never be included
• Already sold out resorts will never enter the Trust, unless they expand (e.g., Poly) or Unit 1A is added (see below)
• Therefore, there will not be a mass ROFR wave to fill the Trust
• ROFR'd deeded contacts will not make their way into the Trust unless DVC can ROFR an entire Unit (see below)
• There will not be a renting portal created initially (or maybe ever), existing renting rules will apply
• On a long enough time range, hard to get rooms will be exceptionally hard to get for Trust owners
• The Trust may only have a single UY
  • If it does only have a single UY, it'll be January or October (I think January makes more sense...but Disney's fiscal year begins in October)
• New resorts will still have 50 (or 51) years before resort expiration
• Resort expiration dates are when inventory will leave the Trust
• Trust contract expiration dates are either going to be Dec 31 (or Sep 30), but 51 years from the year it's purchased or equivalent to the maximum expiration date of deeded resorts being currently sold
  • Maybe they sell shorter Trusts? Or let people choose a shorter expiration (but no change to cost)
• The Trust system is not an overt expansion into Moderates, though DVC may continue to consume Moderate properties to build DVC properties

How I think it will work for DVC (and how some of it works under the hood)

• Inventory will be based on declaration Units
  • As a reminder: Units are a collection of rooms, and can be found in the Condo plans
    • Units can be quantified by points, but are more defined than just a quantity of points
  • A single Unit will never be divided between Deed and Trust systems
    • In other words, it will not be sold in both Deeds and entered into the Trust inventory
  • Only whole Units can go into Deed inventory (as it is today)
  • Only whole Units can go into Trust inventory
  • Trust points cannot be used to access Deed inventory between 11m and 7m
  • Deed points cannot be used to access Trust inventory between 11m and 7m
  • Units in each respective inventory will be available every booking day of the year (such as it is today with Deed inventory) for their respective owners
    • As examples:
      • If 200 CFW Cabins are entered into Trust inventory and 150 are entered into the Deed inventory, that 200/150 ratio is permanent
        • Trust owners can book from 200 cabins between 11m and 7m. year round
        • Deed owners can book from 150 cabins between 11m and 7m, year round
      • If 80x VDH Studios, 10x Duos, 6x 2BR, 4x 2BRLO, and 1x GV are entered into Trust inventory, that quantity is permanent
        • Trust owners can book from 80x Deluxe Studios, 10x Duos, 6x 2BR, 4x 2BRLO, and 1x GV, year round
• Said another way: Trust DVC and Deed DVC will have, behind the scenes, completely separate inventory from 11m to 7m
  • At 7m they'll effectively merge via BVTC, at least for non-resale
• DVD will declare an initial set of Units from the non-sold out resorts that gives them a diverse inventory for the Trust
  • Total initial inventory may be very large relative to initial sales considering they will add 'diverse inventory' from up to 5 resorts
  • A large initial inventory will also fight against 'hard to book' narrative/nature of Trusts
• DVD will add inventory to the Trust via declaring Units (similar to today with deeds) into the Trust, but proportional to existing demand, as much as possible
  • Proportionality will take into account how fast deeded resorts are selling compared to Trust
    • Example, if RIV+CFW+VDH+Poly2+AUL deeded points sell combined at the same rate as Trust points, they'll add new Units to the Trust at the same rate that they declare Units for deeded sale
      • If Trust points sell 2x as fast as Deed points, then Units gets declared into the Trust 2x as fast
  • DVD may proactively 'overstuff' a resort into the Trust if they suspect it will be popular longterm
    • This may result in Riviera effectively selling out immediately, to make sure there's decent Trust inventory (as ~2/3rds of RIV is already permanently declared in the Deed inventory)
    • Something like Poly2, which has the additional complexity of being an expansion and managing bookable inventory, might mean that they do it all day 1: 50% goes into the Trust bucket, 50% declared into the Deed bucket
      • The 50% in the Deed bucket will take some time to sell out, of course
• There will be two 'sell out dates' for resorts:
  • The date deeded sales 'sell out'
  • The date the final Unit is added to Trust inventory; I expect this date to be roughly 1 year prior to deed sales ending due to 'sell out' status
• Unit 1A, which DVC has semi-infamously held back from assignment in deeds at a bunch (all?) of resorts, may be entered into the Trust to expand the Home Resort Collection, though I think it's unlikely
  • This would need to be offset by an appropriate amount of ownership via other means in order to satisfy the 2% rule in FL
  • This would be a hollow offering and I strongly suspect they will not do it: it would let them say that the Trust has Beach Club or whatever, but in reality barely add any inventory at all and probably cause more frustration/ill-will than simply not doing it
• Trust Dues will be determined by a proportional mix of the points in the Trust and will effectively be an average of 'modern' resorts (as only 'modern' resorts will be in the Trust)
• Annual publication of this proportional mix is how owners will primarily be informed about Trust inventory
  • Maybe there will be additional transparency, but unlikely
• The Trust system does not solve their 2042 problems (especially not the OKW problem)

I think Trust sales will begin October 2024. Riviera will sell out shortly after as most of the remaining undeclared inventory gets declared into the Trust. Poly2 deed sales will also begin at around this time. I expect the Trust to typically cost $25/pt over the going rate of the for-sale deeded resorts, possibly increasing over time as more Trust properties become Sold Out properties.

That's pretty incredible. I could totally see that happening.

The only thing I think does need to be included is some way to solve the 2042 resort problem. I think that's the long ploy of doing something like this, as they know that is coming up quick.

How I think that will happen will be different though. The survey sounded like it mentioned a 7 month only membership. I could absolutely see them adding 2042 resorts to the trust for usage purely at 7 months. That kind of acts as a net win for DVD. You could sell 7 month only memberships for a potential discount. Additionally, for all trust users, anything booked after 7 months would use those junk points first. That would allow more trust access to the main resorts of the trust, which could allow them to mark up full trust access even more.

I think this would be helpful for that, as otherwise any non trust resorts booked within 7 months take away trust inventory for a specific resort, which means even at 11 months you might have trouble getting anything if all points for that use year are gone because they've been transferred to non trust resort bookings.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

The issue arises longer term when availability becomes problematic at more popular resorts. Access will be throttled by how many DVC/Hunger Games members are trying to book prestige resorts. Let's say I'm in this system and want Riviera but so does everyone: I fight for the rooms each year to end up with availability mostly at CFW. Isnt this the type of issue that sinks other timeshares? With the deeded resorts you know exactly where you'll be staying (worst case) at 11 months.

Oh no doubt that’s what would likely happen, especially for the most popular rooms. It’s why I’m happy to have my home resorts and deeded interests and it’s very unlikely I’d ever join this type of program.

But I guess what I meant by it doesn’t seem so awful is that based on DVD and POS rules and regulations, the pools of points/rooms available to the trust and the existing system will be separate and so as long as they don’t mess with that, it won’t be too bad. At least that’s how I’m understanding it.

 

[Pooh12863]

Exactly this. It is the only real issue.

If a trust acquires ownership of units in existing associations (or for that matter, new associations where there will be a mixture of original deeded points and trust points), then the odds of booking that highly coveted room on desirable dates would be massively in favour of the Trust if all of its members were allowed to compete in the ‘fastest finger first’ booking system which currently exists.

As @Sandisw points out, it is not possible to split the pool of declared rooms in to separate booking pools for trust / non trust. All owners have access to all rooms at the 11 month mark.

There would need to be a creative solution (such as the 1 month head-start suggested). Another way would be to only allow a certain % of the members of the trust to be allowed to use the booking system at any one time - though I’m not sure how transparent that process would be for other non-trust members.

The trust members aren’t owners.

 

[walt34]

The only thing I think does need to be included is some way to solve the 2042 resort problem. I think that's the long ploy of doing something like this, as they know that is coming up quick.

Why would 2042 be a problem with a trust model? Let's say it's 2042 und existing deeds run out. Disney looks at the resort, thinks it is still good for another 20 years, maybe does some refurb and adds it to the trust and sells the points. If they want to sell memberships with a longer runtime than those 20 years, they need to shuffle around some things - make sure that this resort gets replaced by something else when it finally needs to be demolished. But as the DVC trust members are not assigned to a specific resort, this shuffle should be possible.

I understand that a lot of resorts run out of time in 2042 but isn't this more of an opportunity (to sell points again) than a problem for Disney?

 

[Sandisw]

Ehh's Bold Predictions
How I Think the DVC Trust System Will Work

I think I'm ready to 'call my shot' for how I think this will all this will work, based on what I've learned about other Trust systems, what I know about DVC, and what I know generally about complex corporate initiatives (they want to reuse as much development work as possible and keep things simple for development, employees, and customers).

I think a lot of my predictions are level-headed and keep the overall product and sub-products nearly as simple as possible. I think existing Deed owners will be happy with them, while also giving a Trust system space/functionality to be an upsell for DVC.

This is totally my speculation, and I am absolutely getting some (or all, lol) of this wrong!


How I think it will work for members

• Trust purchasers/members will be able to book at 11 months at their 'home resort collection'
• Deed purchasers/members will be able to book at 11 months at their home resorts, exactly as it is now
• No changes whatsoever to existing deeded ownership, all the way down to existing inventory
  • If you want to be a deed-only owner, you might not even notice that the Trust system exists, except for the marketing
• Booking process (i.e., the UX/UI) for Trust members will be very similar to how it is now--search will show you what's bookable
  • If an owner has both Deeded points and Trust points, they might need to set which they are searching against, similar to how multiple-UY owners set which membership they are using for their search currently
    • Search results will show what is bookable, based on the membership/points selected
• Depending how a mixed-owner searches, they may see different inventory available, or everyone may see all inventory, I'm undecided
  • Regardless, DVC will continue to not easily expose specific room category inventory (e.g., there's 71 rooms in a category available for Deeds, 42 for Trust), but under the hood it'll exist (even if it's completely unaccessible, even when looking at the JSON responses)
  • How a single search may show all inventory: they could use some color coding, like Apple does with blue/green bubbles in iMessage
    • One color for 'bookable by all', another for 'bookable with Trust points', another for 'bookable with Deed points'
      • They already kinda do this with park reservations at Disneyland/DCA
• The 'home resort collection' is the same for every Trust contract, there will not be different levels of Trusts
• The Trust will start with multiple 'home' resorts in the collection and will grow over time
  • e.g., initial home resorts may include CFW, Riviera, Aulani, Polynesian, and Disneyland Hotel, and later add Yacht Club, Reflections, Disneyland2, etc.
• At 7 months, all direct Trust points can be used anywhere, including available Deed inventory
• At 7 months, all direct Deed points can be used anywhere, including available Trust inventory
• Trust points can be banked and borrowed, same rules as Deed points
• The points charts will be the same across Deed and Trust, and they will update in lockstep (in fact, they will never be differentiated)
• Resale restrictions will still exist in some form, but I'm not sure how exactly (favoring Baseline + Opt3)
  • Baseline assumption: resale restricted Deed contracts (e.g., RIV/VDH resale) will never get 7m access to Trust inventory, except maybe at the same resort
  • Opt1: if RIV or VDH aren't included the 'home resort collection', they're totally excluded from resale Trust contracts
  • Opt2: resale Trust contracts may not get access to 7m deed inventory at VDH/RIV/CFW/etc.
  • Opt3: resale Trust contracts may not get access to 7m deed inventory at all
• Trust contracts will be sold as an upsell, at time of initial purchase
  • They'll call it the Always Home Collection™ or something; neither "DVC2" nor "Palmetto" will be in their lexicon
  • "You say you want to buy 200 points at Poly, but for just $15/pt more, you can upgrade your points to the Always Home Collection and add CFW, RIV, VDH, and AUL as home resorts!"
    • In reality, the upsell amount will be variable, as different resorts will have different post-incentive pricing.
    • Always Home Collection will have its own pricing and incentives, so the upsell gap will vary
• Existing contracts cannot be upgraded to Trusts
  • If you want to convert, sell your deeded contracts and buy Trust contracts
    • Maybe DVC offers a program for this, but I think it's unlikely
• Deed contracts will continue to be available for purchase at all non-sold out resorts (and sold out resorts, if we're being honest)
  • e.g., you'll be able to buy deeded Poly2 for as long as Poly2 is not sold out, while you'll always be able to buy a Trust contract that includes Poly2 (or at least until the Poly resort expires)
  • But if you call your guide to buy sold out AKV points, you probably won't be offered a Trust contract as AKV will ~never be included
• Already sold out resorts will never enter the Trust, unless they expand (e.g., Poly) or Unit 1A is added (see below)
• Therefore, there will not be a mass ROFR wave to fill the Trust
• ROFR'd deeded contacts will not make their way into the Trust unless DVC can ROFR an entire Unit (see below)
• There will not be a renting portal created initially (or maybe ever), existing renting rules will apply
• On a long enough time range, hard to get rooms will be exceptionally hard to get for Trust owners
• The Trust may only have a single UY
  • If it does only have a single UY, it'll be January or October (I think January makes more sense...but Disney's fiscal year begins in October)
• New resorts will still have 50 (or 51) years before resort expiration
• Resort expiration dates are when inventory will leave the Trust
• Trust contract expiration dates are either going to be Dec 31 (or Sep 30), but 51 years from the year it's purchased or equivalent to the maximum expiration date of deeded resorts being currently sold
  • Maybe they sell shorter Trusts? Or let people choose a shorter expiration (but no change to cost)
• The Trust system is not an overt expansion into Moderates, though DVC may continue to consume Moderate properties to build DVC properties

How I think it will work for DVC (and how some of it works under the hood)

• Inventory will be based on declaration Units
  • As a reminder: Units are a collection of rooms, and can be found in the Condo plans
    • Units can be quantified by points, but are more defined than just a quantity of points
  • A single Unit will never be divided between Deed and Trust systems
    • In other words, it will not be sold in both Deeds and entered into the Trust inventory
  • Only whole Units can go into Deed inventory (as it is today)
  • Only whole Units can go into Trust inventory
  • Trust points cannot be used to access Deed inventory between 11m and 7m
  • Deed points cannot be used to access Trust inventory between 11m and 7m
  • Units in each respective inventory will be available every booking day of the year (such as it is today with Deed inventory) for their respective owners
    • As examples:
      • If 200 CFW Cabins are entered into Trust inventory and 150 are entered into the Deed inventory, that 200/150 ratio is permanent
        • Trust owners can book from 200 cabins between 11m and 7m. year round
        • Deed owners can book from 150 cabins between 11m and 7m, year round
      • If 80x VDH Studios, 10x Duos, 6x 2BR, 4x 2BRLO, and 1x GV are entered into Trust inventory, that quantity is permanent
        • Trust owners can book from 80x Deluxe Studios, 10x Duos, 6x 2BR, 4x 2BRLO, and 1x GV, year round
• Said another way: Trust DVC and Deed DVC will have, behind the scenes, completely separate inventory from 11m to 7m
  • At 7m they'll effectively merge via BVTC, at least for non-resale
• DVD will declare an initial set of Units from the non-sold out resorts that gives them a diverse inventory for the Trust
  • Total initial inventory may be very large relative to initial sales considering they will add 'diverse inventory' from up to 5 resorts
  • A large initial inventory will also fight against 'hard to book' narrative/nature of Trusts
• DVD will add inventory to the Trust via declaring Units (similar to today with deeds) into the Trust, but proportional to existing demand, as much as possible
  • Proportionality will take into account how fast deeded resorts are selling compared to Trust
    • Example, if RIV+CFW+VDH+Poly2+AUL deeded points sell combined at the same rate as Trust points, they'll add new Units to the Trust at the same rate that they declare Units for deeded sale
      • If Trust points sell 2x as fast as Deed points, then Units gets declared into the Trust 2x as fast
  • DVD may proactively 'overstuff' a resort into the Trust if they suspect it will be popular longterm
    • This may result in Riviera effectively selling out immediately, to make sure there's decent Trust inventory (as ~2/3rds of RIV is already permanently declared in the Deed inventory)
    • Something like Poly2, which has the additional complexity of being an expansion and managing bookable inventory, might mean that they do it all day 1: 50% goes into the Trust bucket, 50% declared into the Deed bucket
      • The 50% in the Deed bucket will take some time to sell out, of course
• There will be two 'sell out dates' for resorts:
  • The date deeded sales 'sell out'
  • The date the final Unit is added to Trust inventory; I expect this date to be roughly 1 year prior to deed sales ending due to 'sell out' status
• Unit 1A, which DVC has semi-infamously held back from assignment in deeds at a bunch (all?) of resorts, may be entered into the Trust to expand the Home Resort Collection, though I think it's unlikely
  • This would need to be offset by an appropriate amount of ownership via other means in order to satisfy the 2% rule in FL
  • This would be a hollow offering and I strongly suspect they will not do it: it would let them say that the Trust has Beach Club or whatever, but in reality barely add any inventory at all and probably cause more frustration/ill-will than simply not doing it
• Trust Dues will be determined by a proportional mix of the points in the Trust and will effectively be an average of 'modern' resorts (as only 'modern' resorts will be in the Trust)
• Annual publication of this proportional mix is how owners will primarily be informed about Trust inventory
  • Maybe there will be additional transparency, but unlikely
• The Trust system does not solve their 2042 problems (especially not the OKW problem)

I think Trust sales will begin October 2024. Riviera will sell out shortly after as most of the remaining undeclared inventory gets declared into the Trust. Poly2 deed sales will also begin at around this time. I expect the Trust to typically cost $25/pt over the going rate of the for-sale deeded resorts, possibly increasing over time as more Trust properties become Sold Out properties.

Lots of great ideas!! Starting with new resorts certainly makes sense

Since the deeded owners have to have access to all rooms during home resort priority with our current POS, setting up the new system with a POS written that way definitely keeps things IMO clean for current owners at deeded properties

 

[Disdreaming479]

With the above predictions and comment about it being a slow process that might take 10+ years to really gain steam; 2043 would be a very big year for the Trust. There would be so many new resorts added.