"DVC 2.0" theory & 2042

[SG131]

No need to flip them all at once, Disney can rent them as cash rooms until declared into the club.

That’s a lot of inventory to rent out, especially at the one and two bedroom level. The studios could rent out no problem but do they have enough people willing to spend $750 (by 2042 I can only imagine what the price would be) a night for a one bedroom unit that at boardwalk actually sleeps less than a studio.

 

[zavandor]

DVD will not "extend" the life of a 2042 resort, like it did at OKW. If it wants to be able to restrict owners' rights, including all resale owners' rights to being limited to their home resort like at Riviera, and if it wants to be able to change the total points applicable to the resort and thus sell far more total points than currently exist at those resorts, which it can only do by actually lowering the current ownership interests and points owned by the existing members, DVD needs to make major changes to the terms of the exiting declarations of those pre-Riviera resorts, which it really can do only by creating new DVC resorts at those locations which have their own declaratiosn that are similar to those at Riviera. Thus, DVD's current plan is most likely to create new 50-year terms for those resorts once they expire in 2042, and every existing ownership contract at the resort will expire..

What it will likely do is offer, for a while, a discounted price to still existing owners in 2040 or 2041, after it issues new declarations to go into effect in 2042 (although that could also be delayed if it has any plan to do a major redo of the resort itself before selling it). I doubt that discounted price is going to be a major price difference from what new purchasers will eventually have to pay. One might argue a large discount should be offered because DVD should want to keep most of those former purchasers. Don't count on that argument. Most of those still existing purchasers in 2040 or 2041 will likely be those who purchased resale, and thus be members despised by DVD, so DVD will not think its owes them any favors. BCV and BWV are resorts with easy access to parks and BRV somewhat easy access. DVD is likely going to view the situation as selling new for 50-year terms may lose some sales from existing members, but those near park resorts will likely sell well and quickly, and the loss of some existing members can be overcome by sales generally.

I agree with every word, except I think they'll sell BRV, as a new resort, but not for 50 years, for around 25, to align its expiry date with CCV, so they can resell everything together again when CCV expires with a new point chart. In 2042 buyers will have the option to purchase BCV and BWV at insanely high prices (and revised point charts) or BRV at a lower price (and still insane, given the shorter expiration).

 

[NoTime42]

That’s a lot of inventory to rent out, especially at the one and two bedroom level. The studios could rent out no problem but do they have enough people willing to spend $750 (by 2042 I can only imagine what the price would be) a night for a one bedroom unit that at boardwalk actually sleeps less than a studio.

So they will do a lot of the typical hotel “trick” and continue to advertise cheaper rooms (studios) to the point of overbooking that studio category and give some of those guests magical upgrades to 1BR+

 

[SG131]

So they will do a lot of the typical hotel “trick” and continue to advertise cheaper rooms (studios) to the point of overbooking that studio category and give some of those guests magical upgrades to 1BR+

A magical upgrade to 2 sleeping surfaces instead of 3 could cause a lot of problems. Whether the family has kids of different genders that don't want to share a bed or a wild sleeper. Maybe if the rooms at some point are refurbished to include a sleeper chair.

 

[jerseyduke]

Consider 2042 to be a "used car" sale. We are not affected, as we will be 90 . Not extending - not sure we will LIVE that long . Not going to WDW in Robot Exoskeletons .

WDW has FOUR choices:

1) Tear down old resorts, build new ones on same property, sell at what the market is for "New Resort".
2) "Renovate" old infrastructure, and attempt to sell as "new". That would be the '57 Chevy with a new engine that you did not buy . The one with new upholstery, and a rotting frame .
3) Go for reality - used building, upgraded, used car prices. Still that '57 Chevy with a new engine that you did not buy, but at a realistic price .
4) Turn old property into Rentals.

Isn't 2 exactly what they did with the Polynesian? Seems like it worked just fine

What? I figure OKW might be an oceanfront resort by the mid 2030s.

So, will they change the name to New Key West?


The issue I see is this: DVC Members have adopted this I will not pay cash for a room at Disney attitude. They often act like its not even allowed as an option. I constantly see people saying I dont have enough points, what do I do???? (well, pay cash for a room!) Anyway, that aside, the attitude, just or not, does exist. In 2042 you have OKW(parts), BCV, BWV, BRV all running out. That is a lot of room inventory to rent out. Will the people who owned there now pay cash to go there? I think BC will be a refurb-resell. Perhaps BW and BR owners will get enticed with some 10 year new contract (not an extension) to try and grab some guaranteed occupancy, or something along those lines.

Of course, Florida could be under water only to be discovered years in the future by people who become very curious about the remains of some ancient mouse worshiping cult.

 

[AdamsMum]

Crescent Lake is prime-time real estate. I can't imaging Disney is going to be very generous with discounts for people with expiring timeshares. That's why they put the expiration date in the deeds in the first place!

I agree that it is prime real estate. However, I don't agree that the 2042 date was for that reason, I think it was just that the others had 2042, and they figured if it didn't work out they could dump dvc cleanly and rent out the rooms.
I think they had no idea of what they had in 1996 when they sold BWV for something like $60 a point. I also think someone at DVC is desperately trying to figure out how they can get BWV and BC back before that. I think it's killing them to wait out the next 22 years. I agree with you that there will be no extensions for us, but who am I kidding, I'll be 85 in 2042. Good thing the peoplemover is my favourite attraction.

 

[NoTime42]

A magical upgrade to 2 sleeping surfaces instead of 3 could cause a lot of problems. Whether the family has kids of different genders that don't want to share a bed or a wild sleeper. Maybe if the rooms at some point are refurbished to include a sleeper chair.

It would be best if the upgrades were sent in advance, like that old days of POP free dining guests being bumped to SSR.
If it doesn’t work for a specific family, then another family gets the upgrade or they get bumped to an empty 2BR.

 

[AvidDisReader]

There is another possibility for BWV. The existing building is completely tore down and rebuilt. I could see this due to the high demand for this property. No cash rooms, all DVC. Redo room sizes so 1 BR can sleep at least 5. More studios. But mostly, point charts with higher point requirements to book. This makes the most sense to me since it addresses issues most heard by members-low number of studios and low amount of persons for 1 BR, but gives Disney what it really wants in higher point charts. Does anyone doubt this would be the fastest selling DVC in history?

 

[NoTime42]

There is another possibility for BWV. The existing building is completely tore down and rebuilt. I could see this due to the high demand for this property. No cash rooms, all DVC. Redo room sizes so 1 BR can sleep at least 5. More studios. But mostly, point charts with higher point requirements to book. This makes the most sense to me since it addresses issues most heard by members-low number of studios and low amount of persons for 1 BR, but gives Disney what it really wants in higher point charts. Does anyone doubt this would be the fastest selling DVC in history?

Remember, BWI is a conference hotel, so they would also need to stop using the conference center. (There has been speculation that the YC and Coronado convention expansions might allow Disney to close some convention space)

Plus I think the garden suites are popular with celebs and VIP’s

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Remember, BWI is a conference hotel, so they would also need to stop using the conference center. (There has been speculation that the YC and Coronado convention expansions might allow Disney to close some convention space)

Plus I think the garden suites are popular with celebs and VIP’s

BWI and YC rooms are both critical for filling the BW Convention space. Either solo at 100% is not enough of a guarantee block.

 

[Sandisw]

I think what they might do is offer people to purchase they new BWV and BCV at a special reduced rate that will begin in 2042 with new Points charts. And any renovations they want to do will take some rooms off line prior.

I do not think the reduction will be substantial but better than new buyers at the resort. Maybe a $25 to $30 point reduction.

 

[Dtw002]

2042 will be here before you know it? I think that’s a little crazy. Look at someone 23 years older than you ; 23 years younger than you. This isn’t a financial tool to build wealth, i see it as a splurge luxury item to enjoy. If you want a legacy resort than get that one. Don’t wait 23 years of settling just so you can stay at a place you don’t like even longer.

 

[MICKIMINI]

We bought at $62 pp in 1996. 2042 was so far out it seemed ridiculous. Disney will figure out a way to transition out 2042 resorts so that they make maximum profits with less flexibility as we see with RIV. I do think they will almost be forced into some unwanted "deal" for 2042 OKW folks, though not cheap, to even out the 2057 date. A tactic 2042 people that still don't want to pay cash in 2042 (yikes I can't imagine what it will be) is to pick up an add on resale now for $100-150 pp with a later expiration date, perhaps even selling your 2042 points now for a decent profit if you don't care about RIV, future resorts or direct "perks" and the elusive blue card, so you will still have points available at 2019 resale prices (still a great deal) past 2042. Really, you can just rent your points out and in turn rent RIV, etc if you really feel the need to stay there. You can figure out your own transition now before the Mouse forces it and figures out a way to empty your bank account.

 

[TexasChick123]

Except that that would be a LOT of rooms to sell at once. I think disney has a few plans in the back of their minds and the biggest factor will be the economy at that point in time. If the economy is doing very well flip and sell. If the economy has tanked, try to get existing owners to hold on as long as they can. If its somewhere in the middle maybe flip and one at a time most definitely starting with beach club because that's where the most money to be had is.

I think if they offered me an extension at boardwalk with restrictions, I'd still take it. But I personally would never buy at Rivera with the restrictions. Boardwalk is such an in demand location I could see that contract holding the resale value despite restrictions. Plenty of people want the ability to book there during food and wine. I know Rivera is only a skyliner ride away, but its not the same as walking distance. I haven't bought with the intention of needing to sell, but you just never know what life will bring you.

Yet I am selling my BWV contract and bought RIV. There are a lot of us who keep quiet about the fact that we don’t really like BWV or BCV. BWV was ok, but we just didn’t think it worked as well for us with its setup as RIV will. We got some use out of it and made a small profit on the sale even including the commissions, but it’s still a pain.

I think a lot on here assume that everyone loves BCV and BWV so much that they’d agree to an extension immediately. Some will be at an age where an extension wouldn’t make sense for them. Some will just want the contract to expire to be over and done with it. Some won’t be in the financial position to extend.

Regardless, I don’t think an extension will be offered. In response to multiple posters saying “Why would Disney turn away all these current owners and not offer an extension?” I would like to point you to the new resale restrictions and how it’s turning away current owners from adding on. They don’t seem to care.

 

[AdamsMum]

Although I love BWV, and it's been the perfect resort for me and I stay there whenever my points will allow, I would not agree to an extension, primarily because of my age. My other resort BCV is just okay to me. But I got the points for a song in 2008 ($82) so I work with it. I don't think I'm alone in that, lots of people who purchased original points would be past the age of wanting to extend. I bought direct but not at the opening date (at that time it was the best kept sercret). As far as an extension, I don't think that will be offered. With the area being as popular as it is, I believe the initial price offering of new or refurbished villas will be very high.
I think they've created a big problem for themselves with OKW. So now they have some 2057 and some 2042. What will they do there?

 

[AvidDisReader]

In response to NoTime42 and auroraborealis, the new resort being built by Swan/Dolphin will more than make up for any lost rooms by a tear down and replace of current BWV. As for garden suites, they can be designed into the new DVC. TexasChick123 has echoed the complaint of many BWV owners that the rooms are just not well designed. This land is prime location and is begging for a new resort for the reasons I mentioned above.

 

[SarahInMN]

Plus I think the garden suites are popular with celebs and VIP’s

We love these rooms (and are not celebs or VIPs) and would be bummed if they disappeared! We book the garden suites if we decide to add on an extra day or two and can’t book at BCV.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

In response to NoTime42 and auroraborealis, the new resort being built by Swan/Dolphin will more than make up for any lost rooms by a tear down and replace of current BWV.

BWV is not a conference hotel. BWI is. And the new hotel being built is not owned by Disney. Disney want the hotel revenue.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. Unfortunately by the time 2042 comes around I most likely will be worm meat. Just a little food for thought. I did some back of the envelope math. When you factor the increased number of points and what the cost per point will be in 2042, a new BWV could bring in profit of Over 3 Billion--that is correct, $3,000,000,000. How many conventions would it take to Net that amount?

 

[NoTime42]

Conferences mean the type of money that results in MK closing early this Tuesday for a private party.

This week’s Gartner IT expo’s registration fee is about $5000 with about 10,000 attendees, so a conference can bring in $50M per week in 2019 dollars. Plus I’m sure corporate Dinner expense accounts are much greater than the typical DVC spend.

This really isn’t an either-or situation. Disney really likes both DVC and conference groups.