Domestic Disney Attendance Update - Closed

[clarker99]

EDIT: Deleted.

Thanks @bryaalre for vetting. I thought my data was accurate and now I am not so sure.

I will re-post with correct info.

Apologies

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

So what does this mean? Well, for easy math if 2018 reported 100 visitors (and we use 101% growth for 2022) we get the following attendance increase % vs FY2018 and FY2019.

FY22 +17% growth
FY23 +24% growth
FY24 +25% growth (after 2 reported quarters)

Disney is reporting that it's 2023 attendance was 6 percent higher than it's 2022 attendance? That seems wrong based on other public statements they made about attendance dropping after the 50th. Are you sure you did this correctly?

 

[fatmanatee]

Disney is reporting that it's 2023 attendance was 6 percent higher than it's 2022 attendance? That seems wrong based on other public statements they made about attendance dropping after the 50th. Are you sure you did this correctly?

I think this data includes other resorts. Unfortunately we don't get breakouts here but the common assumption is that WDW decreased slightly with increases elsewhere that more than offset that decrease.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I think this data includes other resorts. Unfortunately we don't get breakouts here but the common assumption is that WDW decreased slightly with increases elsewhere that more than offset that decrease.

Ah, so you mean Disneyland increased and offset WDW's decrease?

 

[clarker99]

Disney is reporting that it's 2023 attendance was 6 percent higher than it's 2022 attendance? That seems wrong based on other public statements they made about attendance dropping after the 50th. Are you sure you did this correctly?

 

[fatmanatee]

Ah, so you mean Disneyland increased and offset WDW's decrease?

Yes. There's a report that usually comes out this month that provides individual park numbers, that should shed some light on what's happening.

 

[clarker99]

Yes. There's a report that usually comes out this month that provides individual park numbers, that should shed some light on what's happening.

TEA/AECOM data has not jived with Disney's reports since 2021. If I had to guess Disney is no longer providing data to them. But that is just a guess bc the growth/decline %'s are so different. Where as previously they were within 1-2%. I have the data and can post later to show what I mean.

 

[bryaalre]

FY22 +17% growth
FY23 +24% growth
FY24 +25% growth (after 2 reported quarters)

How did you get to these numbers? When using the numbers you provided for the domestic growth i get the following;

FY22 -11% down compared to 18/19
FY23 - 6% down compared to 18/19
FY24 - 5% down compared to 18/19

 

[clarker99]

How did you get to these numbers? When using the numbers you provided for the domestic growth i get the following;

FY22 -11% down compared to 18/19
FY23 - 6% down compared to 18/19
FY24 - 5% down compared to 18/19

2018 100 guests
2019 100 guest 0%
2020 68 guests -47%
2021 58 guests -17%
2022 116 guests +101%
2023 123 guests +6%

23% without any rounding.

 

[bryaalre]

2018 100 guests
2019 100 guest 0%
2020 68 guests -47%
2021 58 guests -17%
2022 116 guests +101%
2023 123 guests +6%

23% without any rounding.

With the example of 100 guests it would be

2019 - 100
2020 - 53
2021 - 44
2022 - 89
2023 - 94
2024 - 95

 

[greeneyedchick]

With the example of 100 guests it would be

2019 - 100
2020 - 53
2021 - 44
2022 - 89
2023 - 94
2024 - 95

I think the original data was implying a percentage growth over the previous year, so if DIsney started with 100 people and increased by 17% then that would be a total of 117 guests. If the next year it increased by 10%, then that would 117 people plus 12 people totalling 129.

 

[bryaalre]

I think the original data was implying a percentage growth over the previous year, so if DIsney started with 100 people and increased by 17% then that would be a total of 117 guests. If the next year it increased by 10%, then that would 117 people plus 12 people totalling 129.

It does imply growth (or decrease) from the previous year and that is what I did with my numbers.

 

[reddog21]

"(2) Attendance is used to analyze volume trends"

Unless you know exactly how there calculated volume it's an arbitrary guess. Actual attendece could be down but volume could be up depending what calc there using. Disney and most theme parts don't report actual attendence.

 

[reddog21]

TEA/AECOM data has not jived with Disney's reports since 2021. If I had to guess Disney is no longer providing data to them. But that is just a guess bc the growth/decline %'s are so different. Where as previously they were within 1-2%. I have the data and can post later to show what I mean.

Disney has never reported to TEA/AECOM which is indicated(not specifically) in the notes at the end of their reports. Most theme parks don't report actual attendance. TEA/AECOM uses there own methology to come up with attendance numbers so the fact that it's not close makes perfect sense.

 

[clarker99]

Disney has never reported to TEA/AECOM which is indicated(not specifically) in the notes at the end of their reports. Most theme parks don't report actual attendance. TEA/AECOM uses there own methology to come up with attendance numbers so the fact that it's not close makes perfect sense.

The growth/decline +/- % bw Disney's SEC filings and AECOM were within 1-2% from 2011 to 2020. Then suddenly in the 2021 and 2022 reports they are not even remotely close. Night and day.

I have had someone 'in the know' tell me that Disney are thought to be the ones that essentially control the TEA so it is hard to know what is really going on.

Long story short, TEA have been off for 2yrs with Disney counts.

 

[reddog21]

The growth/decline +/- % bw Disney's SEC filings and AECOM were within 1-2% from 2011 to 2020. Then suddenly in the 2021 and 2022 reports they are not even remotely close. Night and day.

I have had someone 'in the know' tell me that Disney are thought to be the ones that essentially control the TEA so it is hard to know what is really going on.

Long story short, TEA have been off for 2yrs with Disney counts.

Nothing is going to be close to normal during covid especially in those 2 years. It actually proves my point that when you have methodology that compares multiple years and one(or two) of those years is an huge annomally then the numbers aren't going to be close.

I do a lot of 5/10/15 year forecasting trends and we ended up weighting 2021/2022 because it it's so much of an outlier that it torpedos any normal forecasting. Things are starting to normalize but it's been pretty slow.

 

[Brian Noble]

If I had to guess Disney is no longer providing data to them.

They never were, at least not officially. The TEA/AECOM reports have always been estimates---and not just for Disney. I've had several people who work at the larger regional parks tell me that they are pretty hit-and-miss with those estimates.