Does DVC regret Poly?

[MountainMouse]

My personal opinion is they don't regret it yet even if it's isn't selling as they expected (and we don't really know what they expected). They probably view this as a marketing issue, they need to do a better job of showing people why they love the studio option. So what was DVD thinking with making Poly all studios? My primary assumption is money but I can't really figure out how making Poly all studios makes them more money. Next I would think that they believed the studio would sell better, maybe because VGF studios were more popular than 1BR's?

 

[JWG]

I seem to be in the minority that they're concerned about PVB. Sales seem to be slower, but they're so far from having anything else online I think that's ok. There's NO construction going anywhere else on property right now.

I think they're fine with higher prices and slower movement.

 

[OKW Lover]

There's NO construction going anywhere else on property right now.

Excepte for the new Wilderness Lodge villas.

 

[JWG]

But VWL are early in process.

 

[deedisneydream97]

My personal opinion is they don't regret it yet even if it's isn't selling as they expected (and we don't really know what they expected). They probably view this as a marketing issue, they need to do a better job of showing people why they love the studio option. So what was DVD thinking with making Poly all studios? My primary assumption is money but I can't really figure out how making Poly all studios makes them more money. Next I would think that they believed the studio would sell better, maybe because VGF studios were more popular than 1BR's?

I stopped in at VGF last week with my daughter to see if DVC was still showing rooms even though they are supposedly sold out (and I forgot to ask her about that)....and they were still showing rooms...DD was very impressed (the rooms are so elegant there). The seasoned sales person and I had a good chat. According to her, Poly was originally supposed to have 1 bedrooms and was originally planned to be a knock-down. There were issues with EPA and some other thing....wetland regulations...the foundation was not going to be allowed to be torn up and I guess things were under the foundation? So they had to work with what they had. Her explanation made sense...I am just not very good at retelling. Not sure how they managed to get permission for the bungalows.

And who knows if that is the real story or not. I am surprised they have not come up with an incentive yet....or maybe sales are better than we know and they don't need to.

 

[Missyrose]

My personal opinion is they don't regret it yet even if it's isn't selling as they expected (and we don't really know what they expected). They probably view this as a marketing issue, they need to do a better job of showing people why they love the studio option. So what was DVD thinking with making Poly all studios? My primary assumption is money but I can't really figure out how making Poly all studios makes them more money. Next I would think that they believed the studio would sell better, maybe because VGF studios were more popular than 1BR's?

I believe the Poly plan was a massive overcorrection to the VGF studio problem.

 

[disneynutz]

My gut is telling me that the current executives are having a hard time proving their worth. Disney expects numbers/prices to increase, not decrease.

I also wonder if the bungalows were built to attract Asian customers? Aulani was expected to do a ton of Asian business, the Poly is similar to Aulani and the plunge pool is very popular in Asia.

Bill

 

[MountainMouse]

I stopped in at VGF last week with my daughter to see if DVC was still showing rooms even though they are supposedly sold out (and I forgot to ask her about that)....and they were still showing rooms...DD was very impressed (the rooms are so elegant there). The seasoned sales person and I had a good chat. According to her, Poly was originally supposed to have 1 bedrooms and was originally planned to be a knock-down. There were issues with EPA and some other thing....wetland regulations...the foundation was not going to be allowed to be torn up and I guess things were under the foundation? So they had to work with what they had. Her explanation made sense...I am just not very good at retelling. Not sure how they managed to get permission for the bungalows.

And who knows if that is the real story or not. I am surprised they have not come up with an incentive yet....or maybe sales are better than we know and they don't need to.

I don't know why they couldn't have made what they have into 1 and 2 BR options. Seems like they purposely wanted the studio only option.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I stopped in at VGF last week with my daughter to see if DVC was still showing rooms even though they are supposedly sold out (and I forgot to ask her about that)....and they were still showing rooms...DD was very impressed (the rooms are so elegant there). The seasoned sales person and I had a good chat. According to her, Poly was originally supposed to have 1 bedrooms and was originally planned to be a knock-down. There were issues with EPA and some other thing....wetland regulations...the foundation was not going to be allowed to be torn up and I guess things were under the foundation? So they had to work with what they had. Her explanation made sense...I am just not very good at retelling. Not sure how they managed to get permission for the bungalows.

And who knows if that is the real story or not. I am surprised they have not come up with an incentive yet....or maybe sales are better than we know and they don't need to.

I'm going to call that a sales story that is coming out for why you shouldn't be disappointed that they converted 35 year old buildings into studios only at the Poly and then said "look, you wanted Poly, come buy it. BTW, we couldn't get some permits to build what we really wanted to so just be excited you got this".

 

[MountainMouse]

My gut is telling me that the current executives are having a hard time proving their worth. Disney expects numbers/prices to increase, not decrease.

I also wonder if the bungalows were built to attract Asian customers? Aulani was expected to do a ton of Asian business, the Poly is similar to Aulani and the plunge pool is very popular in Asia.

Bill

That's a possible angle but it's a long way from Orlando to Asia. First thing I thought was trying to attract more of the people that are happy with staying in regular hotel rooms, but the lack of two queen beds kind of shoots that down.

 

[DebbieB]

I think the problem is price and the high points cost per night. I can't imagine paying $165 per point. I'll stick with my $65 per point paid at BWV and take my chances at 7 months. I wonder how many points have been sold to existing members vs what they planned. I used to say the only thing that would make me want to give up my BWV points is a DVC at GF. When it became a reality, it made no sense to do that. Paying over $40,000 now for 250 points? No way.

I got a studio at VGF last year in May at 7 months and I'm also 4 for 4 at VGC, the only other DVC I considered adding on. I typically alternate resorts and do my non-BWV in the spring or summer so I haven't had a problem getting what I want.

The busy resale market should be a clue to DVC.

 

[deedisneydream97]

I'm going to call that a sales story that is coming out for why you shouldn't be disappointed that they converted 35 year old buildings into studios only at the Poly and then said "look, you wanted Poly, come buy it. BTW, we couldn't get some permits to build what we really wanted to so just be excited you got this".

Maybe....maybe not. If anyone has access to the original plans that could answer for sure. Either way, it is a moot point for me. Too expensive and too many points to stay. Stayed one night in a lake view soon after opening and will not stay there again. It really is just a spiffed up hotel room. It was nice to see the MK fireworks from the balcony, but prefer the view from BLT.

Now the bungalows....wow!!! Glad I did that tour, as I will never be able to stay there. They are quite amazing.

 

[MountainMouse]

I think the problem is price and the high points cost per night. I can't imagine paying $165 per point. I'll stick with my $65 per point paid at BWV and take my chances at 7 months. I wonder how many points have been sold to existing members vs what they planned. I used to say the only thing that would make me want to give up my BWV points is a DVC at GF. When it became a reality, it made no sense to do that. Paying over $40,000 now for 250 points? No way.

I got a studio at VGF last year in May at 7 months and I'm also 4 for 4 at VGC, the only other DVC I considered adding on. I typically alternate resorts and do my non-BWV in the spring or summer so I haven't had a problem getting what I want.

The busy resale market should be a clue to DVC.

You know I thought they had overpriced themselves as well but then I look at the resale market and people are paying near that for VGF resale and BLT is catching up. So the demand is there and the ability to pay is there. Seems like people just don't want Poly.

 

[DebbieB]

You know I thought they had overpriced themselves as well but then I look at the resale market and people are paying near that for VGF resale and BLT is catching up. So the demand is there and the ability to pay is there. Seems like people just don't want Poly.

I think the smaller number of rooms makes VGF harder to get so more people bought, plus the availability of all room sizes. Plus I think GF is just so "luxurious". That DVC lobby is so nice, Poly does not even have a separate lobby. I only stayed at Poly once and that was in 1996, didn't care for it. My friends & I are talking about a stay next May in a studio, mainly to try it out. I've stayed at all the WDW DVC's except SSR and Poly.

 

[Dean]

My personal opinion is they don't regret it yet even if it's isn't selling as they expected (and we don't really know what they expected). They probably view this as a marketing issue, they need to do a better job of showing people why they love the studio option. So what was DVD thinking with making Poly all studios? My primary assumption is money but I can't really figure out how making Poly all studios makes them more money. Next I would think that they believed the studio would sell better, maybe because VGF studios were more popular than 1BR's?

The truth is we simply don't know what they were thinking or planning. I'm not sure it was a mistake but I do believe they left potential on the table. They sold SSR, they can sell it. I know I could sell it if in a position to do so.

 

[dsnydaddy]

Don't know what DVC is thinking now, but the imbalance that started with VGF which the Poly was possibly trying to correct is worse now. That imbalance will take a few years to completely shake out on how it affects the value of DVC. IF the poly creates a whole bunch of people who bought enough points for a studio at the Poly but want a 1 or 2 bedroom elsewhere which ultimately impacts the 7 month availability adversely we may see a whole lot of unsatisfied customers.

 

[DenLo]

Except for the new Wilderness Lodge villas.

But VWL are early in process.

DVC has not announced that VWL are getting any additional villas nor the cabins on the lakeshore. We all think DVD will remodel WL hotel rooms into DVC villas and we assume that the cabins are for DVC, but we don't know for sure that is true. No paperwork as been filed to indicate the construction is DVC related as all the construction is labeled as Disney Parks and Resorts, which is the norm.

The truth is we simply don't know what they were thinking or planning. I'm not sure it was a mistake but I do believe they left potential on the table. They sold SSR, they can sell it. I know I could sell it if in a position to do so.

I agree we don't really know the game plan for selling PVB and whether DVD wants the sales there to extend to a certain date.

The only thing we really know is that based on experience DVC always wants something to sell. And we all think that Aulani is too far away for guests east of the Mississippi to have an interest in purchasing. Some would think anything east of the Appalachians is too far away. So in many minds that means PVB is the DVC property that DVC wants to last until just before the opening of the next DVD construction project is completed. I think DVC can sell anything they want.

IMO the real mistake is the elimination of discounts, PVB is a nice property, but it just overpriced. Plus DVC members like the discounts. Now you have webcasts about PVB that only offer discounts or special offers for Aulani. What are they thinking there?

 

[dizfan]

I agree with Dean that they left potential on the table. Could have made super studios, but they did not. Could have put in a laundry room in each longhouse, but they did not. Instead, PVB studios average one washing machine per 90 studios. Compare that to BLT and VGF and it is stunning the lack of laundry.

I do think some of PVB decisions were based on thoughts toward the economic cycles. U.S. cycle is in the second half. China fears may not be over. Canada has a significant housing bubble. U.S. exports far more to Canada than China. There is a possibility that Disney expects the next few years to be a downturn.

They also know there will be a ton of park construction for the next several years. The fewer resorts they have in active sales, will be a good thing. Additionally, if the China/Canada bubble burst, they will be happy for lower sales during the preceding months/years.

Of course, if we avoid an economic downturn, the board will not be happy to see lower revenue from any part of the company.

As others have said, only Disney insiders know the risk/reward analysis they have done with PVB to decide what sales should be. If lower sales revenue is expected, one could look at management stock sales. If they have been selling, it is a sign they expect less revenue.

 

[OKW Lover]

Could have put in a laundry room in each longhouse, but they did not. Instead, PVB studios average one washing machine per 90 studios. Compare that to BLT and VGF and it is stunning the lack of laundry.

How many laundry facilities do BLT and VGF have? How many studios?

 

[OKW Lover]

I also wonder if the bungalows were built to attract Asian customers? Aulani was expected to do a ton of Asian business, the Poly is similar to Aulani and the plunge pool is very popular in Asia.

Aulani attracts asian customers because Hawaii is a popular vacation spot for them. The units in Aulani have things like rice cookers and chopsticks as part of their standard kitchen amenities.