Does anyone else think the OKW 15 year extension will add value?

[sjdisneywedding]

All of these dilemma's are why I posed the question of DVD somehow forcing this extension on to owner's, either thru voluntary incentives, thru special assessments, or for "free" as Dean has brought up. While I'm not an OKW owner, the outcome will have an impact on the other 2042 resorts.

I dont see any way they could even give it away for free. It would be more trouble than its worth even for that, how many people would be up in arms saying " I dont want 15 more years of maintenance fees , period. even if the points are intially free"

if that was an offer, rather than forced situation, I am sure there would be more to sign up and accept it than now but there would still so many hung up on the "I wont be around argument"

 

[Mtnman44]

If i buy a Mustang GT for $25k and my neighbor buys a Corvette for $50k and exactly 5 years later we both sell them, yes the Corvette will have more value and sell for more.

If it were possible to pay $15k more to "convert" the Mustang to a Corvette and hope that it would also sell for $40k at 5 years, would that be "worth it"? Does it really increase the value in the mustang? To others, maybe. To me, No. My net value is the same as I PAID that value in. It simply subracts from one column to add in another.

In the case of DVC, it is extemely hard to even know if the paid in value of the extended contract will ever even amount to $15 gained value. When you factor in the time value it is hard to argue for extending based on a market value benefit. SSR is a fairly reasonable comparison at how the market values an OKW-type 2057-ish resort vs. a 2042, and that is about $5 per point currently.

no this is not correct either!

the question is: does the contract have more value with an extension?

whether you sell, dont sell, or are dead or not it makes no difference

the contract is certainly more valuable. its really not a debate type situation

now whether the person paying for the extension gains or loses in the long run is debatable

 

[Jeremy&Susan]

You aren't serious are you, SJDISNEY WEDDING?

If Disney extended your contract for additional years for free, you would say, "No Way, I don't want the additional years". Come on now, your just being silly.

If you don't want the additional years of maintenance fees, sell the contract in 2042 and send a thank you card to Disney for giving you something to sell in 2042.

I think the holidays are getting to us all.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

You aren't serious are you, SJDISNEY WEDDING?

If Disney extended your contract for additional years for free, you would say, "No Way, I don't want the additional years". Come on now, your just being silly.

If you don't want the additional years of maintenance fees, sell the contract in 2042 and send a thank you card to Disney for giving you something to sell in 2042.

I think the holidays are getting to us all.

are you kdding me?

no I would never pass that up, I would get the extension at $15 if I had the opportunity

what I am saying is there are many people who would complain that they still had to pay the MF's and they would be up in arms

just read some of the posts on the issue, you will see

 

[sjdisneywedding]

If i buy a Mustang GT for $25k and my neighbor buys a Corvette for $50k and exactly 5 years later we both sell them, yes the Corvette will have more value and sell for more.

If it were possible to pay $15k more to "convert" the Mustang to a Corvette and hope that it would also sell for $40k at 5 years, would that be "worth it"? Does it really increase the value in the mustang? To others, maybe. To me, No. My net value is the same as I PAID that value in. It simply subracts from one column to add in another.

In the case of DVC, it is extemely hard to even know if the paid in value of the extended contract will ever even amount to $15 gained value. When you factor in the time value it is hard to argue for extending based on a market value benefit. SSR is a fairly reasonable comparison at how the market values an OKW-type 2057-ish resort vs. a 2042, and that is about $5 per point currently.

I must say you have some really "out there" comparisons"

fact is an OKW contract with 15 more years will be one of the following

a) worth more than the 2042 contract

or
b) have more vacations in the end than the OKW 2042

there is no other scenario

I am not syaing either of those will equate to $15

that wasnt the question

 

[Dean]

You aren't serious are you, SJDISNEY WEDDING?

If Disney extended your contract for additional years for free, you would say, "No Way, I don't want the additional years". Come on now, your just being silly.

If you don't want the additional years of maintenance fees, sell the contract in 2042 and send a thank you card to Disney for giving you something to sell in 2042.

I think the holidays are getting to us all.

There certainly are timeshares not worth the yearly fees and I think it's possible that DVC will be at that level late in the course due to higher fees alone. I think that's esp true for HH and OKW due to their building design. Whether it will be true or not no one knows at this point. But even if it's a good deal for many around 2042, it might not be for a given individual. If you don't want to go and can't afford it, the extra fees might not be reasonable even if the points might be a good deal for someone else. And there's no guarantee one can sell at all at that time and I think there's a good chance that one can't sell at the end and cover the fees involved in selling for the 15 years alone.

 

[goldilocks_63]

I understand now your POV.

Thank you for the clarification,

Happy Holiday to all,

GOldi

 

[rinkwide]

I must say you have some really "out there" comparisons"

fact is an OKW contract with 15 more years will be one of the following

a) worth more than the 2042 contract

or
b) have more vacations in the end than the OKW 2042

there is no other scenario

I am not syaing either of those will equate to $15

that wasnt the question

What do you think the question was?

 

[JimMIA]

I must say you have some really "out there" comparisons"

fact is an OKW contract with 15 more years will be one of the following

a) worth more than the 2042 contract

or
b) have more vacations in the end than the OKW 2042

there is no other scenario

Right. That's the no-brainer analysis -- something is more than nothing. But that's not what the OP was asking.

I am not syaing either of those will equate to $15

that wasnt the question

Actually, that was the core question. Not "is there any value in 15 extra years," but "is there any ADDED value in the offer?" Not "is something more than nothing," but "is this offer valuable to me?"

I think the real answer to the real question here is, as always, "It depends."

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Right. That's the no-brainer analysis -- something is more than nothing. But that's not what the OP was asking.

actually after reading quite a few threads on here over the last few months, its not such a no brainer.

Actually, that was the core question. Not "is there any value in 15 extra years," but "is there any ADDED value in the offer?" Not "is something more than nothing," but "is this offer valuable to me?"

I think the real answer to the real question here is, as always, "It depends."

its always a matter of "it depends on the situation"

no matter how you slice it(or word it), the fact still remains that an extended contract is worth more in dollars and years than one that is not extended

no one knows the exact worth, but who cares? probability is it WILL be worth more. if its $6 or $8 or $12 or $20, what is the big deal?

its practically meaningless to me, its about the years and whther you can use them

 

[JimMIA]

if its $6 or $8 or $12 or $20, what is the big deal?

Well, it's not free...it costs $15.

If it turns out to be worth more than $15, however you evaluate that "worth," it's a good deal.

If the eventual value is less than $15, you wasted your time and money by purchasing the extension.

That's the question OP was asking -- does this offer ADD value?

As I said long ago -- and this only applies to my particular situation, YMMV -- if I was going to put $4,000+ additional into DVC, I'd much rather buy a small add-on of points that I can use NOW, and for the next 35 years.

 

[lurontravel]

Thanks for all of the opinions. I too read threads "way back" when the offer was first presented. The opinion of the vast majority has certainly not changed, and I was curious if it had. I considered buying more points instead of extending my contract, but don't think that I need them right now. It would also mean that I'd be paying more $ maintenance fees now, which, I'm not interested in that additional annual expense on something I don't need. I guess that my rationale for extending was for me (I'm only 37 )to be able to use the points later in life, as I just love to go to WDW for the ambience, and for my children (who have lots and lots of wonderful memories at WDW already) to enjoy with me, or without me (if I'm no longer interested, able to go, dead, or whatever), and perhaps even to enjoy with my grandchildren someday, or even for them to enjoy without me. I am a bit sentimental I guess, and DVC has allowed me to have a lot of wonderful times at WDW. Yes, to me, Disney is magical.

Then, there is the possibility that something dramatic will change my life, and DVC will no longer be practical for us financially, and then, I might be forced to sell. I don't plan to, but, if I do, I suspect that I'll get a nicer return then the $15 per point then I would if I hadn't extended. I probably would spend that extra $5k or so on some other disposable thing (vacations, etc), and not have invested it anyways. So, in a very weird, round-about way, I kind of am investing it, just in DVC, not the stock market, mmf, or whatever. I'll probably not see a "return" on it, as I don't intend to sell, but hopefully I (or my children and/or grandchildren) will enjoy 15 years of vacations on me (mostly), and will create more happy times/memories.

Dean,
You referred to OKW villas as being "wood" structures. I am 99% certain that all of the buildings are CBS or poured concrete structures, as we live in Florida, and it'd be foolish to build them of wood. So, that does take away the argument that they won't be as solid in 2042 as they were when they were first built, not to mention that they collect maintenance fees for insurance and to maintain the structures and keep them in excellent repair. I don't think WDW would allow DVD to let the structures be in disrepair, or any state less then excellent.

Thanks to you all for discussing this topic again. I was wondering too if peoples opinions might have changed a bit a few months down the road. It pretty much sounds like they haven't. I guess I'm a little surprised, but probably shouldn't be, my husband's opinion hasn't changed either .

I am curious about what DVD will do in 2042 with all of the contracts that don't extend and haven't been sold.

 

[Dean]

Dean,
You referred to OKW villas as being "wood" structures. I am 99% certain that all of the buildings are CBS or poured concrete structures, as we live in Florida, and it'd be foolish to build them of wood. So, that does take away the argument that they won't be as solid in 2042 as they were when they were first built, not to mention that they collect maintenance fees for insurance and to maintain the structures and keep them in excellent repair. I don't think WDW would allow DVD to let the structures be in disrepair, or any state less then excellent.

I am not sure the base but with all the wood siding, railing, etc; keeping them up will get more and more expensive. Whether they can keep up and the cost gets out of hand is the question. IMO they are not keeping up all that well at the present and given some of the discussion over the past 2-3 years it seems many feel the same.

 

[JimMIA]

I am curious about what DVD will do in 2042 with all of the contracts that don't extend and haven't been sold.

Well, those of us who decline the offer will be deeding something we don't own to someone. I don't know exactly who yet, because I haven't received my paperwork yet, but presumably someone other than me will own what I don't own now, but am forced to deed to them.

My guess -- and it is just a guess -- is that they will be able to either sell the remainder of my non-interest, or they will be able to put it into their inventory and rent it like any other hotel availability through CRO. I assume they will mostly tack my unpurchased 15 years onto contracts they ROFR and get their money back ASAP, rather than holding them for 35 years before renting them. I'm sure there are other options.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Well, it's not free...it costs $15.

If it turns out to be worth more than $15, however you evaluate that "worth," it's a good deal.

If the eventual value is less than $15, you wasted your time and money by purchasing the extension.

That's the question OP was asking -- does this offer ADD value?

As I said long ago -- and this only applies to my particular situation, YMMV -- if I was going to put $4,000+ additional into DVC, I'd much rather buy a small add-on of points that I can use NOW, and for the next 35 years.

In that posting I wasnt reffering back to OP, I was talking in general, basically to you

to ME, IMO, I dont care if its 6, 8 10 or 20 dollars -- thats what I mean

again you dont have to get the whole 15 dollars back resale for this to have an added value

I dont see why you cant seem to grasp that. its not clear cut what added value is

to one person, a single extra vacation in year 51 is added value

 

[sjdisneywedding]

What do you think the question was?

Does anyone else think the OKW 15 year extension will add value

 

[rinkwide]

Does anyone else think the OKW 15 year extension will add value

Some do, some don't.

 

[Mtnman44]

How can you argue with logic like that???

Look, I enjoy these discussions and it really is facinating how many different ways people think of this. So I'm just adding my opinion here. The great thing is that everyone can do what they want with their money. One more time, here is my bottom line opinion of this offer:

I think it stinks. I think disney is completely gouging its current OKW owners and is betting that a good portion of them don't know enough about what this extention really is or that enough don't care and will be happy to spend money to make their current contract longer.

Sure, 1$ per point, per year for the extra 15 years sounds GREAT. What people need to understand is that this is different from simply buying a DVC contract. With a normal purchase, you get to start using (and something) from your investment (purchase). With the extention, a current owner gets NOTHING now. Yes, an extended OKW contract will no doubt be worth more in the market than a non-extended. How much is very difficult to say. However, you have PAID in that value. So even if you sell an OKW for a full $15 per point more than the non-extended ones, you are not better off than the non-extended owners. Who cares if their contracts are selling $15 lower. They didn't waste those $15 way back when - so they are actually better of than the extended seller in this scenario. One argument that has merit is that is seems likely that in the resale market the non extended contracts may be more difficult to find buyers for (since the extended contracts will likely be selling for only a few $ per point more... ) It makes sense also that DVC is likely to be fairly agressive with ROFR on non-extended since they can easily resale them as full contracts, instantly creating more equity out of thin air. All of this is pure speculation of course, but it makes sense.

How to really think about the extention value is by comparing it to an outright DVC membership purchase, only one that doesn't kick in until 35 years from now. How much would you pay right now for a DVC contract that begins in year 35? That is how much you should pay for the extention.

to one person, a single extra vacation in year 51 is added value

 

[simzac]

How can you argue with logic like that???

Look, I enjoy these discussions and it really is facinating how many different ways people think of this. So I'm just adding my opinion here. The great thing is that everyone can do what they want with their money. One more time, here is my bottom line opinion of this offer:

I think it stinks. I think disney is completely gouging its current OKW owners and is betting that a good portion of them don't know enough about what this extention really is or that enough don't care and will be happy to spend money to make their current contract longer.

Sure, 1$ per point, per year for the extra 15 years sounds GREAT. What people need to understand is that this is different from simply buying a DVC contract. With a normal purchase, you get to start using (and something) from your investment (purchase). With the extention, a current owner gets NOTHING now. Yes, an extended OKW contract will no doubt be worth more in the market than a non-extended. How much is very difficult to say. However, you have PAID in that value. So even if you sell an OKW for a full $15 per point more than the non-extended ones, you are not better off than the non-extended owners. Who cares if their contracts are selling $15 lower. They didn't waste those $15 way back when - so they are actually better of than the extended seller in this scenario. One argument that has merit is that is seems likely that in the resale market the non extended contracts may be more difficult to find buyers for (since the extended contracts will likely be selling for only a few $ per point more... ) It makes sense also that DVC is likely to be fairly agressive with ROFR on non-extended since they can easily resale them as full contracts, instantly creating more equity out of thin air. All of this is pure speculation of course, but it makes sense.

How to really think about the extention value is by comparing it to an outright DVC membership purchase, only one that doesn't kick in until 35 years from now. How much would you pay right now for a DVC contract that begins in year 35? That is how much you should pay for the extention.

Thank you. I couldn't have said it any better myself.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

How can you argue with logic like that???

Look, I enjoy these discussions and it really is facinating how many different ways people think of this. So I'm just adding my opinion here. The great thing is that everyone can do what they want with their money. One more time, here is my bottom line opinion of this offer:.

I definately agree with you

Sure, 1$ per point, per year for the extra 15 years sounds GREAT. What people need to understand is that this is different from simply buying a DVC contract. With a normal purchase, you get to start using (and something) from your investment (purchase). With the extention, a current owner gets NOTHING now.

How to really think about the extention value is by comparing it to an outright DVC membership purchase, only one that doesn't kick in until 35 years from now. How much would you pay right now for a DVC contract that begins in year 35? That is how much you should pay for the extention.

But heres where I differ,

yes you dont get to use the extension for 35 years, but the price is adjusted to reflect that.

its about $5000 for a 50 point new contract, its only $750 to extend those same 50 points

yeah who wouldnt want to buy a new contract now . hey if you have that much more money available and then even more for the MF's over the next 50 years then of course by all means go for it


so for me, to answer your question of 'what you would you pay for a contract that starts in 35 years'

I would pay the $15 (and probably the eventual $25 too)

$750 now for 50 points worth of vacations from 2042-2057 sounds pretty good to me, especially knowing a single nights stay could be that same $750 in 35 years

its 2 totally different scenarios