Here's my experience. We go usually the last week of Sept. The year before last we did the F. dining package and shortly before show time it was at capacity. Last year we did the F. package and arrived 30 min before the show. They were just opening the reserved section to the general public because the rest of the amphitheatre was at capacity. By show time the SRO sections were full and people were being turned away. Neither of those nights were EMH nights.
Now I know that LOTS of people have gone to the show through the regular lines and have had no problem finding what they consider to be good seats. I personally don't think there's anything wrong with the location of the reserved seats, but to each his own. Some are happy to wait in line for over an hour. Others manage to get seats even when they arrive later.
What I am trying to say, in my roundabout fashion, is that there is just no predicting how heavy the crowds at F. will be on any given night. Park crowd figures during the day don't always seem to be great predictors for the demand for F. seats, although it's a given that EMH will increase crowds quite a bit.
If you don't want to do the F. dining package this year, then just be prepared to hop in line early if you see that it is getting long.
