Do I wait for airfare price drops or ensure good times?

[Richard M Nixon]

I was looking at ITA software's flight matrix a few weeks back and pricing out tickets for two from AUS to MCO in April 2015 for about $600 roundtrip. Now I see it's up to about $900, for the times I'm looking for. Of course, I dropped a brick and now I'm worried about what to do. I read that the ideal time to buy airfare is about 90-120 days before travel, but now I'm concerned that the good times (read: flights that don't get in at 10pm my arrival day or depart at 6am my last day) are going to be all taken. I thought this was pretty absurd at first, given how far away I am from my flight date, but the airfare sites I've looked at are all advertising only 5, 4, 2 seats left on flights. Do people really fill up flights so early in advance? Should I just bite the bullet and spend a grand on airfare now?

A friend mentioned that it's likely an airline will be adding more flights to its schedule as the flights I see now are filling. Is this likely? I assumed that what was posted is all that flies, but I'd like to hear from the experienced flyers out there. Will airlines usually end up adding more flights as time goes on? Especialle for something so far out?

 

[Karlzmom]

neither Jetblue nor SW have released for April 2015.

I would fly either in a heartbeat. Is your quoted fare per person? A quick look at the typical fares for the routes on each carrier would make it far less than what you are coming up with. As for times, SW will have multiple flights a day on that route Jetblue will likely do one flight each way [continuing service to Long Beach] - arrives in Orlando around 6p, leaves around 3p.

Frontier would get you there via Denver- also not accepting bookings.


I'd wait....the legacy carriers you are looking at also do not offer any price protection. If SW were open, you'd lose nothing by booking ahead and then getting the credit against a future flight if the price went down [of course, if you can't use the money within a year of the original booking its lost - but at least you have a chance. No so with the legacies...]

Also, can you travel to another departure point....also check Sanford, FL and Tampa...easy drives to the House of Mouse which might help you out [though if you are planning to use DME you'd need to save enough to offset a car]

 

[Richard M Nixon]

I knew jetblue wasn't showing up in my queries but I didn't look at southwest. I have no loyalty to any of them yet so I'm not biased by names.

I'm looking at rates for the pair of us, so I'm seeing about $400 pp w/tax, for times I consider good (arrive at noon, depart in the evening). Which sucks. I was told there was some kind of "fare war" going on a couple weeks back that I guess I saw. I don't keep up on the latest airline news...

I also didn't realize that apparently some places do spring break in April. Looks like I'll be fighting the college crowd, too.

I am leaning towards renting a car, so I'll take a look at other airports nearby. I didn't even consider it, so thank you for pointing it out.

Any thoughts on when Southwest lists its fares? I don't want to get dinged on fares any more than I already am, but if there's some unreleased flights out there, I'll stand by ready to pounce.

Edit: What does southwest usually charge? I'm looking 4-5 months out just to price out their flights and I'm seeing 3-400 pp.

 

[Minniekins]

They just opened flights on SW for travel from Nov thru Jan 4th, on May 19th. SW now lists they will open the next two months for booking from Jan 4th - Mar 6th, 2015 on July 21st. I would guess they'd open up the April travel two months later, in Sep. And, myself, I'd definitely wait to book as next April is almost a year away still.

 

[Karlzmom]

Southwest has a feature on their page that lets you see the best price for each day on every route. Go in and make a dummy trip of what ever days then click on the flexible schedule. You can move from month to month and get a general feel for the best price for the route. My quick look for Austin to MCO shows quite a bit of $117 o/w pp.

Don't forget that SW lets you fly two bags pp included in the fare [free] and is also a RAC participating airline.

If you have the time, a SW credit card can produce as many as 50K points. If you pull a business and personal you can stack to get in range of a companion fare ticket. In the alternative, if you don't make your spouse a co-user of the account you can EACH get your own account and have 100k points between you. Check out the budget board for all the information.

 

[lylone]

Why is everyone's answer to pricey airfare a response of "fly southwest". Well, I will tell you that it is NOT the best answer in all cases. We are looking at flights from ATL to MCO in November and the flights we are seeing are $197 one way per person! Compared to prices that used to range $49-$79 one way per person when Airtran was around. It is quite a shock of price difference for some of us who now seem to be stuck since some airports only Delta and SW are our only options.
In our case Delta seems to be the better choice at $306 roundtrip per person. Still that is quite a sticker shock of paying twice as much compared to the past where we could fly for about $260 round trip for 2 people. I could only imagine what it would be like for a family of four and with SW there is no guarantee that families can sit together!

We used to be able to wait for Airtan sales but it doesn't seem that SW will be doing the same deals. We have been flying twice a year to Florida for 6 years and we have seen prices going up little by little each year, but this year has been a shock!!

It was on the Atlanta news the other night about how SW buying out Airtan has caused air prices to go up and we have seen it first hand!!!

 

[Redarrow5150]

It's getting redundant in saying but the demand and an improved economy is setting up the price. Yes competition has been cut because of fewer carriers but for the most part it's a better economy. Unless new airlines emerge or carriers add more flights this trend will continue.

 

[Ranger111]

Redarrow pretty much nailed it.

From the finanical publications I read, airlines are ready to make some profits, finally (or so they say) and are trying their best to RAISE prices, not drop them.

Those fares you saw a year or so ago were not making much hay for the airlines.

They are tired of it. They have made moves to raise prices several times this year. Latest last week. It did not necessarily take, but that does not mean prices will fall....although you will see the occassional dip.

But, for the most part, according to the finance gurus, expect airfares to do nothing but go up for the next few months anyway.

As said, pent-up demand, improving economy, more people flying. That means higher prices.

If you think you will see any significant plunges for the summer -- I guess anything is possible, but it is a significant gamble.

 

[Redarrow5150]

You could see some prices dip in the second half of the year and airlines might add more routes to fill in demand. Last year the major carriers like Delta and Southwest had very good year and are on pace to do better this year. IMO it's still worth waiting but not like if your less than 75 days away from when you need to buy.

Redarrow pretty much nailed it.

From the finanical publications I read, airlines are ready to make some profits, finally (or so they say) and are trying their best to RAISE prices, not drop them.

Those fares you saw a year or so ago were not making much hay for the airlines.

They are tired of it. They have made moves to raise prices several times this year. Latest last week. It did not necessarily take, but that does not mean prices will fall....although you will see the occassional dip.

But, for the most part, according to the finance gurus, expect airfares to do nothing but go up for the next few months anyway.

As said, pent-up demand, improving economy, more people flying. That means higher prices.

If you think you will see any significant plunges for the summer -- I guess anything is possible, but it is a significant gamble.

 

[lylone]

I agree.. I don't think I would wait past 75 days out. At that point u may be left with the red eyes and late night flights.
With what I am seeing now, I can only imagine what the Christmas holidays will bring.

 

[Redarrow5150]

We are going to use our credit card miles to buy airfare for December. We use US Bank and they have several flights (30+) for 12/23 at 30,000 so that's encouraging as we will accumulate 90.000 by the middle of next month for three of the four. I have about 46,000 for Delta but the flights are limited at 40,000 and the return times are extremely early am which I don't want to do. I will probably have to pay out of pocket expenses (along with the miles) to have better return times.

I agree.. I don't think I would wait past 75 days out. At that point u may be left with the red eyes and late night flights.
With what I am seeing now, I can only imagine what the Christmas holidays will bring.

 

[buckeev]

Redarrow pretty much nailed it.

From the finanical publications I read, airlines are ready to make some profits, finally (or so they say) and are trying their best to RAISE prices, not drop them.

Those fares you saw a year or so ago were not making much hay for the airlines.

They are tired of it. They have made moves to raise prices several times this year. Latest last week. It did not necessarily take, but that does not mean prices will fall....although you will see the occassional dip.

But, for the most part, according to the finance gurus, expect airfares to do nothing but go up for the next few months anyway.

As said, pent-up demand, improving economy, more people flying. That means higher prices.

If you think you will see any significant plunges for the summer -- I guess anything is possible, but it is a significant gamble.

Totally agree. SWA's stock is performing very well. They are reaping the benefits of a great business model...(Unfortunately, my "stock portfolio" is deeply vested in personal visits with Minions & Dwarfs).

 

[Karlzmom]

Why is everyone's answer to pricey airfare a response of "fly southwest". Well, I will tell you that it is NOT the best answer in all cases. We are looking at flights from ATL to MCO in November and the flights we are seeing are $197 one way per person! Compared to prices that used to range $49-$79 one way per person when Airtran was around. It is quite a shock of price difference for some of us who now seem to be stuck since some airports only Delta and SW are our only options.
In our case Delta seems to be the better choice at $306 roundtrip per person. Still that is quite a sticker shock of paying twice as much compared to the past where we could fly for about $260 round trip for 2 people. I could only imagine what it would be like for a family of four and with SW there is no guarantee that families can sit together!

We used to be able to wait for Airtan sales but it doesn't seem that SW will be doing the same deals. We have been flying twice a year to Florida for 6 years and we have seen prices going up little by little each year, but this year has been a shock!!

It was on the Atlanta news the other night about how SW buying out Airtan has caused air prices to go up and we have seen it first hand!!!

I don't believe that I said SW was the answer in all cases...indeed, I suggested the OP also look at JetBlue and Frontier. The precise question asked was whether or not the OP should book airfare now. I offered information that there are airlines that have not even released their schedule yet.

Each traveler needs to look at the options available and make an educated decision of what combination of price, flight times and airport options that will work for their individual situation. Frequently, SW is a good option. In all cases it is one of the rare airlines that offer some form of price protection and include bag handling in the base fare. YMMV. I hope you can find a price that works for you and you can have a good vacation.

 

[Liz]

When did one way tickets become (somewhat) affordable? Didn't they used to be about 3/4 the cost of round trip?

Our best option ended up being one way to Florida on Delta to get an earlier arrival time and Southwest going home. We paid more than I hoped on Delta but it kept getting higher and it was worrying me to death. What we ended up paying for the one way flight was exactly half of round trip.

Our Southwest flight for Nov. 20 dropped a little bit today. Maybe things are starting to go in the right direction.

I'm not going to look at Delta anymore because I don't want to know if it drops and I paid too much!

 

[lost*in*cyberspace]

When did one way tickets become (somewhat) affordable? Didn't they used to be about 3/4 the cost of round trip?

........

One way domestic tickets are half the price of RT tickets. Yes, this wasn't always true; not sure when this changed. International tickets are a different story; it's much cheaper to buy a RT ticket versus two one way tickets.

 

[disneyag]

We fly AUS-MCO every year. It's too early for you to price your tickets (unless you ever plan to redeem airline miles for a ticket.)

This June we are flying there on SW and home on Jet Blue. Best pricing. Total ticket came to $270 per person. I purchased those tickets in February of this year.