Disney's MyMagic Failure

[morethananyonex]

But remember, in this scenario. They still collected their park admission. Even though they came into the park to use 3 FP+ and then leave...that did not significantly affect the crowd levels.

So what?

Disney would rather collect meal and souvenir money as well, would they not? Especially for those on multi day tickets, who may be spending an extra $10 per person for the ability to use 3 FP and watch an evening show with no additional in park spending. They encourage longer stays with lower admission prices to capture that money.

For the record, I'm talking about people with multi day tickets, people who are spending close to 100 a day to get in are probably way less likely to leave, FP or not.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

There's a bit of a zero sum game at play. Whether you're on a hard budget or soft, money spent outside the park won't be available to be spent inside the park.

1/2 your park guests aren't staying at your resorts, so their money goes wherever they go.

Of the 1/2 staying at your resort, Disney averages about $260 per room, per night. That $260 is divided among all of the guests in that room. Deduct from $260 what it costs Disney to house these guests (rooms, reservations, security, housekeeping, grounds maintenance, life guards, transportation) and that number is greatly reduced.

So in park spending is very important because it's the money you get from everyone.

The difference between 4 and 6 hours can mean anything from nothing to a character meal for 4.

Ironic that I just posted elsewhere I am considering canceling my TS lunch reservations because the SB line at SE hit 30 minutes in the afternoon when even during peak season in the afternoon is was almost a walk on.

As we get closer, and no changes are made, I find it more likely that I will ONLY be able to ride my 3 FP+ picks in the afternoon and I'll be done with RD by 11. The SB lines will be too long.

And my own little protest will be walking over to the Dolphin and getting a cheaper and better quality lunch without a crowd.

 

[Planogirl]

I think Disney's ideal scenario is families entering a park right before a meal, eating it, using 3 FP, shopping, eat another meal and leave. After/before that, they would ideally be somewhere else on Disney property spending money (aka not hanging by the pool or in the room).

I think they do realize that although ideal, there are many other less than ideal scenarios that can play out. Family spends most of their day (and meal/souvenir money) at Universal, using their 3 Disney FP in the evening, watch a nighttime show and then leave the park. Family eats breakfast in the room, makes rope drop, rides for an hour or two, leaves property for eating and cheaper more varied shopping, comes back after supper and uses FP. The scenarios go on and on. They may have found that when people leave the parks sooner they aren't necessarily spending money like they would in park. While FP+ locks people into their schedules, it also can have the opposite effect. People who previously locked themselves in with the way they liked to your may find themselves taking the opportunity to explore other options while still having 3 FP.

The survey was very specific about asking if the proposed scenarios would lengthen your time in the park and make it more relaxing. Interpret that how you will, but I take that to mean they want you relaxed in the park spending money, not minimizing your park time with the chance that you leave Disney completely to spend some of that money.

These scenarios actually seem to be easier with FP+ than with legacy. You are (at this point) guaranteed 3 FP and nothing more. In the old days you might use 3 and then see where else you can get FP when your time became available. Now you would do what? Eat and shop? I still maintain that people can only buy and eat so much.

 

[OtherScott]

The survey was very specific about asking if the proposed scenarios would lengthen your time in the park and make it more relaxing. Interpret that how you will, but I take that to mean they want you relaxed in the park spending money, not minimizing your park time with the chance that you leave Disney completely to spend some of that money.

Yep. When we realize that Disney World does not survive unless it meets the expectations of the greatest number of guests, this move makes perfect sense.

I think guests who used to draw 0-2 FPs will like the FPs and will settle in redeeming around 1-2, slightly higher than previous but not 3. I think this will increase their park time. They will be the most incline to accept HAL's "suggested plan for maximum fun!"

Modeling and projections will be built on the new reality will be built on actual numbers.

Those who used to draw 5-6 will not accept HAL's suggested plan and will create their own that allow them to get additional FPs. The ceiling will be flexible, but over time an unofficial strategy will emerge.

Keep your heads down and watch out for the H/Ks flying about. Sarah Conner and Kyle will hook up and Skynet will be crushed before it begins.

 

[morethananyonex]

These scenarios actually seem to be easier with FP+ than with legacy. You are (at this point) guaranteed 3 FP and nothing more. In the old days you might use 3 and then see where else you can get FP when your time became available. Now you would do what? Eat and shop? I still maintain that people can only buy and eat so much.

Exactly.

FP+ makes it easier to spend money out of the parks, but it also makes it easier to spend money off property or not spend it at all. As much as people rave about FP+ forcing them to slow down and smell the roses, do you think that's what Disney was intending? I don't think Disney considers it a win if a family who may have rode with FP for the entire day now spends half that time in the park and the rest lounging by the pool or shopping at outlet malls.

Or hey, maybe they'll start charging admission to the pools .

 

[OtherScott]

Ironic that I just posted elsewhere I am considering canceling my TS lunch reservations because the SB line at SE hit 30 minutes in the afternoon when even during peak season in the afternoon is was almost a walk on.

As we get closer, and no changes are made, I find it more likely that I will ONLY be able to ride my 3 FP+ picks in the afternoon and I'll be done with RD by 11. The SB lines will be too long.

And my own little protest will be walking over to the Dolphin and getting a cheaper and better quality lunch without a crowd.

Not many solutions for this in short term.

 

[OtherScott]

I don't think Disney considers it a win if a family who may have rode with FP for the entire day now spends half that time in the park and the rest lounging by the pool or shopping at outlet malls.

They do if this number is offset by the group who never pulled FPs in the first place. My guess is they know.

 

[morethananyonex]

They do if this number is offset by the group who never pulled FPs in the first place. My guess is they know.

So that group who never used FP is supposed to spend that much extra that they would cover an entire families spending for the day? You would have to assume one of the groups ate virtually nothing in the parks while they spent the day there to even come close, or that FP+ has the ability to bring in enough new guests to replace the ones who are doing less in park spending.

 

[OtherScott]

So that group who never used FP is supposed to spend that much extra that they would cover an entire families spending for the day? You would have to assume one of the groups ate virtually nothing in the parks while they spent the day there to even come close, or that FP+ has the ability to bring in enough new guests to replace the ones who are doing less in park spending.

Are you suggesting that these newly minted 3 and out families spend nothing?

Second, how big do you suppose this group is? I mean, yes, there are some. But a significant number that says "Kids, we've used up our FPs and now it's time to leave - to go to the outlet mall. No, you can't have an ice cream. I know you're thirsty but we have water back at the hotel."

 

[Robo]

Are you suggesting that these newly minted 3 and out families spend nothing?

Second, how big do you suppose this group is? I mean, yes, there are some. But a significant number that says "Kids, we've used up our FPs and now it's time to leave - to go to the outlet mall. No, you can't have an ice cream. I know you're thirsty but we have water back at the hotel."

Disney could hardly care less if a family bought ice cream treats or soft drinks.
That kind of spending is just normal business.
To make up over a billion Disney Dollars in MM+ expenditures ("investments,)
collective guests have got to SPEND SOME SERIOUS MONEY to an extent that they did not do so in the past.

 

[morethananyonex]

Are you suggesting that these newly minted 3 and out families spend nothing? Second, how big do you suppose this group is? I mean, yes, there are some. But a significant number that says "Kids, we've used up our FPs and now it's time to leave - to go to the outlet mall. No, you can't have an ice cream. I know you're thirsty but we have water back at the hotel."

No, I'm saying at best their spending just replaces the family who stopped spending in park leaving it as a wash. And is there really enough brand new families that FP+ specifically brings in to make this logic work?

Ice cream is a far cry from formerly spending the day eating in the parks. Losing one table service meal from a family is significant.

 

[mom2rtk]

Disney could hardly care less if a family bought ice cream treats or soft drinks.
That kind of spending is just normal business.
To make up over a billion Disney Dollars in MM+ expenditures ("investments,)
collective guests have got to SPEND SOME SERIOUS MONEY to an extent that they did not do so in the past.

Here's some math.

We all know that 3<6.

But how about this....... how many Mickey bars does it take to reach $1B? How about $1.5B? Oh, and they have to be NEW Mickey bars, not the boring old ones that would have been purchased anyway.

 

[OtherScott]

No, I'm saying at best their spending just replaces the family who stopped spending in park leaving it as a wash. And is there really enough brand new families that FP+ specifically brings in to make this logic work?

Ice cream is a far cry from formerly spending the day eating in the parks. Losing one table service meal from a family is significant.

1. You haven't quantified either group. You've just suggested it's one-for-one, a wash. That's not close to realistic.

2. All table services are not created equally. For popular venues, freed up seats will be quickly filled by others (visit any number of ADR threads). For less popular venues, Disney will promote them to guests day of, at specific times when they're a) close and b) calculated to be hungry.

3. Attendance at all WDW parks in 2012 was north of 48 million. Since 2012, Disney has raised it's ticket price by $12. Increased gate price alone got Disney $576 million.

4. If I wanted to get $1 billion dollars over the next 2.5 years, per day guest spending would have to go up $8. Five years - $4.

This is just an illustration to show how a little money over a broad group adds up fast - not to ignore interest charges, multi-day discounts, etc.

 

[ArwenMarie]

They want you in the park for the optimal amount of time per day where any longer doesn't equate to an increase in spending. I think that's about six hours per day. Just my guess.

3 FPs, maybe a show or a parade, shop a little, have a meal = Six hours

Add in transportation time, you're looking at an eight-hour day. It's long enough to make sure you probably just end up back at your resort for the rest of the day. But short enough that they can rotate more people through in your place.

 

[OtherScott]

Here's some math.

We all know that 3<6.

But how about this....... how many Mickey bars does it take to reach $1B? How about $1.5B? Oh, and they have to be NEW Mickey bars, not the boring old ones that would have been purchased anyway.

What Disney knows

3>0

 

[morethananyonex]

1. You haven't quantified either group. You've just suggested it's one-for-one, a wash. That's not close to realistic. 2. All table services are not created equally. For popular venues, freed up seats will be quickly filled by others (visit any number of ADR threads). For less popular venues, Disney will promote them to guests day of, at specific times when they're a) close and b) calculated to be hungry. 3. Attendance at all WDW parks in 2012 was north of 48 million. Since 2012, Disney has raised it's ticket price by $12. Increased gate price alone got Disney $576 million. 4. If I wanted to get $1 billion dollars over the next 2.5 years, per day guest spending would have to go up $8. Five years - $4. This is just an illustration to show how a little money over a broad group adds up fast - not to ignore interest charges, multi-day discounts, etc.

I guess all this discussion is fairly irrelevant now that Disney has announced they're making it possible to use more than 3 per day and in more than one park.

(I think) We both agreed earlier that Disney isn't trying to push people out of the parks with the limitations of FP+, and it seems like they've just shown that today.

 

[OtherScott]

I guess all this discussion is fairly irrelevant now that Disney has announced they're making it possible to use more than 3 per day and in more than one park.

(I think) We both agreed earlier that Disney isn't trying to push people out of the parks with the limitations of FP+, and it seems like they've just shown that today.

Yep.

I think most of the complaints about FP+ are irrelevant at this point in the process - except for those with trips planned and paid for. I mean, didn't offsite just get prebooking yesterday?

 

[OtherScott]

I am asking the jury to believe that Disney, knowing that the median number of FPs pulled was 1.something, assumed that three would be sufficient and when the backlash became worrisome, decided to go to the source to find out what they would prefer instead. I am very comfortable taking that case to the jury.

Better hope this witness gets hit by a bus:

http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=51103343&postcount=118

What is described in the blog post was implemented as a test in the parks in early March - exactly as stated, including requiring a kiosk rather than an online method. Very few knew about it because there was no public announcement, but it was there to be tested. So the ability to activate it, apart from whatever fine-tuning resulted from observations of the March test, could happen very quickly.

And it was also active during an unannounced test in January, when I actually did it myself. Again, via a kiosk and in my case, at a separate park from the original three.

So this is all part of the huge and detailed test period. There has been a purpose behind much of what has been going on beyond things that have been part of formal publicity announcements.

What's in the blog post, you ask?

"As expected, most of our guests think that securing times to ride our attractions is one of the best ways to maximize the fun of a Walt Disney World Resort vacation. We’ve heard from a number of guests that they would like the opportunity to add additional FastPass+ entitlements during their visit, in addition to the three they can plan in advance. So, we’re working on providing them with the ability to add and enjoy additional entitlements on the day of their visit. Once they’ve used the three they’ve booked, we’ll enable them to select another at kiosks in the parks. And once they’ve used the fourth, they can select another, and so on. We also heard that other guests liked the fact that with the FastPass+ service they could use FASTPASS when they park hopped. So we’re working on a service enhancement to add that feature to FastPass+ as well."

 

[WillAustin]

People have been complaining about a limit of 3 since last July.

 

[JimmyV]

Better hope this witness gets hit by a bus:

The argument that there was some well-studied master plan that is now being implemented as opposed to changes being made on the fly based on feedback and demand doesn't hold water.

Consider which of the following two conversations is more probable than not to have transpired:

Winthorpe (a Disney executive responsible for FP+ implementation): Valentine, how is the FP+ roll out coming along.

Valentine (a Disney ground-level employee charged with customer satisfaction and reaction to FP+): Well sir, there is a lot of chatter on both sides of this, but irrespective of whether people are for it or against it, there seems to be rather uniform agreement that three FPs per day is not enough and people want more. It is now just after the President’s Day crunch and the feedback is really pouring in.

W: That’s OK, Valentine. We have always intended to ramp up the number of FPs, and by Summer, things will be different. This has been the plan all along.

V: But Mr. Winthorpe, the guests who visited in February and the ones who will be visiting in March, April and May are all paying full price for their experience, and you are suggesting that they are intentionally being given a reined in experience, knowing full well that in the future, other guests are going to get something better. Why not start the ramp up right now? That will tone down the negative chatter that we are seeing on Face Book and elsewhere. If we know that we are going to do it, why not do it now. By Summer, over 2 to 3 million people will have used a model of FP+ that we do not intend to keep. What is the point in that?

W: Trust me, Valentine. We have studied this. We can weather this storm of discontent. Oh. And speaking of studies, I’d like you to initiate a poll of recent guests and ask them if they would like us to implement a system whereby we afford additional FPs to guests throughout the day. Got it?

V: But sir, if we already know that we are going to be making these changes, and we know that there are going to be more than three FPs, why do we need to ask them what they want?

W: Details, details. Just get it done.
------------------------------------------------

Winthorpe (a Disney executive responsible for FP+ implementation): Valentine, how is the FP+ roll out coming along.

Valentine (a Disney ground-level employee charged with customer satisfaction and reaction to FP+): Well sir, there is a lot of chatter on both sides of this, but irrespective of whether people are for it or against it, there seems to be rather uniform agreement that three FPs per day is not enough and people want more. It is now just after the President’s Day crunch and the feedback is really pouring in.

W: That’s interesting. Our studies showed that on average, people used 1.6 FPs per day. We figured that 3 would be plenty. I am really surprised by the negativity that you are encountering.

V: Well, sir…it seems that if we can ramp that number up a bit, we might be able to quell some of the discontent.

W: That’s an intriguing idea. Why don’t you initiate a poll of recent guests and ask them if they would like us to implement a system whereby we afford additional FPs to guests throughout the day.

Before you reach your conclusion, consider the recent press release:
We’ve heard from a number of guests that they would like the opportunity to add additional FastPass+ entitlements during their visit, in addition to the three they can plan in advance. So, we’re working on providing them with the ability to add and enjoy additional entitlements on the day of their visit.

Do the words “heard from a number of guests” and “we’re working on providing” sound like they are reacting, or that they had these changes in their pocket all along?