Disney's Long Term DVC Strategy

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I think there is plenty of interest for a DCL/DVC product. I'm not a lawyer, but the logistics of dealing with a moving asset, extensive maintenance schedules, international laws, etc. might make it complicated.

I think (from Disney’s perspective) they already have things covered— they can let owners use their points (at a terrible conversion rate) to cruise when they want— they also sell a member cruise at extremely high prices, not sure they want to undercut either by introducing a better (for owners) DVC Cruise product. If anything, I think they’d expand to a second (shorter?) member cruise to fill cabins during slow seasons.

 

[Genie+]

Longterm I think DVC will:

Continue their efforts to differentiate resale and direct. Resale points are all now restricted one way or another.

Blue card perks will continue evolving in ways that more precisely tie to type of points used and level of engagement. The more frequently direct points are used and the more areas spending occurs, the more opportunities to access the best of DVC perks.

Because I also think their moves are all aligning with the eventuality of point washing.

Over the last decade:

2016 - Resale restricted from blue card

2019 - Resale restricted from trading into all other resorts

Post 2020 - rofr activity diminished

2023/2024/2025 - Changes made to Moonlight Magic to improve control of distribution

2024/2025 - Welcome Home Weeks added

2025 - MMB added

2026 - $500 CAF added to resale purchases

UK people are probably familiar with slowly, slowly, catchey monkey. The monkey here is selling the conversion to direct. It’s almost like they can pull something else to sell out of thin air. Instead of only selling contracts they could also start selling the difference between resale and direct to existing resale owners.

It makes me wonder about adding on. In 10 years how much will it matter if half my points are resale? Will I end up wanting to be full direct and willing to pay to make that happen? Would it be cheaper to buy direct today than buying resale today and point wash later? My guess is: Probably, very likely, and yes lol.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It makes me wonder about adding on. In 10 years how much will it matter if half my points are resale? Will I end up wanting to be full direct and willing to pay to make that happen? Would it be cheaper to buy direct today than buying resale today and point wash later? My guess is: Probably, very likely, and yes lol.

Agree with you on longer term strategy.

Point washing must be very expensive if it’s cheaper to buy direct today when there’s often a $40+ gap between direct and resale.

I personally don’t have a need for more points amid all the uncertainty (both DVC’s, economy generally, and my own schedule uncertainty!) and difficulty getting rooms I want when I want to travel. With my kids at peak school/sports activity age, it’s hard to book 11mo out and it’s a lot of work to try to find good rooms on shorter notice…but if I was buying, I still don’t think I can justify more than $25 between direct and resale, as I already have 2x the points I need for Y-card membership… but if I needed 25-50 points more to reach “tier 2 y-card” perks, I’d be pulling that trigger pretty fast.

(Edited to add: assuming T2 perks was something like guaranteed MM entry or an extra special DVC Elite event I really wanted to add…not getting more points for current MMB level perks)

 

[Carouselofplanning]

So much "I said and it sounds cool it so it must be true" on threads like this, lol.

You don’t think they are going to build a Skyliner?

 

[muppets3d]

You don’t think they are going to build a Skyliner?

No I wasn't talking about that lol but that would be a good idea! Honestly they should have built a people mover along the dock leading to Lookout Cay.

 

[juliebee]

It makes me wonder about adding on. In 10 years how much will it matter if half my points are resale? Will I end up wanting to be full direct and willing to pay to make that happen? Would it be cheaper to buy direct today than buying resale today and point wash later? My guess is: Probably, very likely, and yes lol.

I'm thinking you might be right on that. I would like to hope that point washing would be in the $25/pt amount, but I think it's much more likely to be in the $50+/pt range, if it's ever offered at all.

 

[airjay75]

I'm thinking you might be right on that. I would like to hope that point washing would be in the $25/pt amount, but I think it's much more likely to be in the $50+/pt range, if it's ever offered at all.

I agree. Any point washing system will be designed to discourage a resale + wash strategy. They want you to buy direct from an actively selling resort because that's where they make the most money. I think we effectively see how expensive Disney thinks a point wash should be with the recent CCV and SSR "flash" sales. Both of those indicate about a $70/point spread if you take average resale prices of CCV and SSR and compare it to the incentive price offered (not factoring in magical beginnings).

Notably, that's about the same spread between RIV direct and resale prices (if you buy enough RIV points and break up the contract enough, you can probably get that spread even a little less than $70/point).

So, buy an actively selling resort with a longer contract and better incentives or buy resale and point wash for more money and a similar loss in value if you ever sell?

 

[Genie+]

Point washing must be very expensive if it’s cheaper to buy direct today when there’s often a $40+ gap between direct and resale.

Very good point! Current price gap can be quite large depending on resort. Some are $60 or $80pp, or low as $20 PVB.
I should’ve been more clear about that and which resorts we had been considering. Maybe resale BLT or CCV as SAP+, AKV or SSR as mostly SAP for 1BRs at 7 months, or Poly Direct on a good incentive round (resale price is too high for me to consider today). Got me thinking about direct flash sales getting some sold out resorts in the $135-$150pp range. Would doing one of those or a good Poly round be better than any 5 of those resale today plus eventually point washing them?

it’s hard to book 11mo out and it’s a lot of work to try to find good rooms on shorter notice

Add we have similar issues in this department. Maybe the ability to book restricted resorts helps with this, but maybe even better is for us not to add-on and instead use WDW bouncebacks to book some trips.

Tricky tricky. I’m not sure what to do