Disney's Long Term DVC Strategy

[IsDVCForMe?]

I love Universal. I’ve owned annual passes there several different times. Heck I even really like Regular Old Amusement Parks, having continuously had an all-parks season pass to Cedar Fair (now including Six Flags) for twenty years give or take.

I’m about as far from “Only Disney Will Do” as you can get.

And even *I* don’t believe this.

Lol was just messing around.

 

[Add-On-Itis]

However, Disney is generally not shy about going to the mattresses when they think someone is profiting off of their work, and/or exploiting a loophole. See: the DAS court fight. So, if they wanted to make life miserable for a handful of high-profile mega-renters, that would not take as much activation energy, namely: freeze some accounts, and dare the owners to take up a very long, expensive, and painful lawsuit.

Brian,
You would think it is pretty easy for them to identify those owners. Join a few fb group. Watch the feed for a few weeks, and you will see some super star posters having rooms to rent everyday. They will delete their post after, so you can't see their previous posts. But pretend to be a renter, get a reservation number from them.

 

[Cfabar1]

I think the entire Resale product will continue to lose value, not gain it long term.

In the next couple years we might see an upward “bump”/“blip” because of all the initial investment we will see with new AK and new MK enhancements.

My hunch is RIV trends downward as more buyers join the pool, and it is no longer actively selling by Disney. This means there is likely to be less emphasis on maintaining the resort at the high level they have in all areas - food, character drop bys, etc.

Separately, the 2042s are going to keep going down and down… right now a stripped contact might have 14-15 years of use left, those numbers will get even tougher when we are close to 10 years of use….

If the trust product follows other initiatives by competitors, those points are likely to be worthless on resale…

But, Direct will continue to get more and more expensive in my view, and it will continue to do a nice business for DIS.

 

[IsDVCForMe?]

Will BCV and BWV get extended?

 

[DVCsloth]

Will BCV and BWV get extended?

Doubt it. I think they get re-built.

 

[IsDVCForMe?]

Doubt it. I think they get re-built.

First off, I will admit I know nothing about those resorts.

If they were to get extended, would resale buyers be able to use them until their extended dates? Kind of like OKW-E.

 

[DVCsloth]

I would guess that they would if they were offered and paid to extend, but with all of the uncertainty with OKW-E, I don't think it will happen.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Universal is about to get the Disney fans if Disney keeps up these restrictions.

Does Universal have a timeshare?

Aside from that point. Universal isn't the same as Disney. Disney has a hold on many people, there is something with the nostalgia that takes hold in a way that Universal cannot and will never be able to replicate.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Lol was just messing around.

Phew!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Brian,
You would think it is pretty easy for them to identify those owners. Join a few fb group. Watch the feed for a few weeks, and you will see some super star posters having rooms to rent everyday. They will delete their post after, so you can't see their previous posts. But pretend to be a renter, get a reservation number from them.

10000% Its easy. But I am thinking that DVC just doesnt actually care at this point. The personal use question was just smoke and mirrors. The largest offenders have just doubled down and are buying even more contracts and renting even more rooms.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Will BCV and BWV get extended?

I would LOVE that! But I dont think it will.

 

[IsDVCForMe?]

10000% Its easy. But I am thinking that DVC just doesnt actually care at this point. The personal use question was just smoke and mirrors. The largest offenders have just doubled down and are buying even more contracts and renting even more rooms.

I can’t imagine renters make a ton of money off of these rooms, but maybe they do?

 

[VGCgroupie]

I can’t imagine renters make a ton of money off of these rooms, but maybe they do?

They absolutely do.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I think the entire Resale product will continue to lose value, not gain it long term.

In the next couple years we might see an upward “bump”/“blip” because of all the initial investment we will see with new AK and new MK enhancements.

My hunch is RIV trends downward as more buyers join the pool, and it is no longer actively selling by Disney. This means there is likely to be less emphasis on maintaining the resort at the high level they have in all areas - food, character drop bys, etc.

Separately, the 2042s are going to keep going down and down… right now a stripped contact might have 14-15 years of use left, those numbers will get even tougher when we are close to 10 years of use….

If the trust product follows other initiatives by competitors, those points are likely to be worthless on resale…

But, Direct will continue to get more and more expensive in my view, and it will continue to do a nice business for DIS.

Don’t disagree on 2042’s. IMO those are currently overpriced on resale. I fully admit I’m not a fan of any of the 2042’s but OKW, but I consider that a 2057, and that lack of enthusiasm for those resorts affects my opinion.

But I just think long term DVC’s approach will need some significant change to stay in the market at their current rates. I don’t see the millennials or Gen Z’s buying in long term like the boomers and Gen X’s have. Add the shrinking population, and I don’t see how Disney overall can afford to have the 2042 contract owners walk away January 2042 from vacationing at Disney. A good chunk of those owners may be owners by inheritance, and not ones who will plop down the price of today’s points plus inflation to keep visiting for another 50 years. I think DVC and Disney will need a major accommodation for the 2042 owners to keep them. And definitely think they will need to keep them to keep things working financially.

 

[Brian Noble]

I can’t imagine renters make a ton of money off of these rooms

A buy-and-hold renter probably is not doing that much better than the long-term after-tax return of a total stock market index fund. (Long term---not this month!).

However, the pros are not buy-and-hold. They buy-strip-flip. Because the resale market over-values stripped contracts and undervalues loaded ones, this significantly reduces the cost basis of a point. If a flipper also happens to be a broker, doesn't have to pay commission and can make lowball buy-it-now offers to owners in distress looking to dump a contract, well....

it is pretty easy for them to identify those owners. Join a few fb group.

They don't even have to do that. If random DISers can figure out that a small set of entities have large holdings across various shell companies by just looking at the deeds recorded in Orange County plus a few other sources, DVC can too. DVC also knows, for sure, whether non-owners are staying in most of the reservations belonging to one of these entities and whether or not the names are always different.

I am thinking that DVC just doesnt actually care at this point.

For now.

Eventually, some bright-eyed junior executive angling for a promotion will put together a slide deck that details the revenue that is being lost to owners under-cutting Disney's hotel business, along with a strategy for putting a stop to it.

I have no idea when that will happen. I'm pretty sure it eventually will happen. And, I suspect that was what was behind the saber rattling a year ago, but for whatever reason they decided not to follow through. Will that decision to ignore it be repeated? I would not want to bet my livelihood on it.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I think the entire Resale product will continue to lose value, not gain it long term.

In the next couple years we might see an upward “bump”/“blip” because of all the initial investment we will see with new AK and new MK enhancements.

My hunch is RIV trends downward as more buyers join the pool, and it is no longer actively selling by Disney. This means there is likely to be less emphasis on maintaining the resort at the high level they have in all areas - food, character drop bys, etc.

Separately, the 2042s are going to keep going down and down… right now a stripped contact might have 14-15 years of use left, those numbers will get even tougher when we are close to 10 years of use….

If the trust product follows other initiatives by competitors, those points are likely to be worthless on resale…

But, Direct will continue to get more and more expensive in my view, and it will continue to do a nice business for DIS.

RIV has character drop bys?

 

[Brian Noble]

I would not want to bet my livelihood on it.

The recent construction and subsequent sale of Keyholder suggests that some of the people who were betting their livelihoods on it may have decided to take some winnings off the table.

Thread 'Keyholder Vacations (e.g. DVC Resale Market/Rental Store) has its exit event'

Dec 25, 2025

I found this interesting.

https://www.accessnewswire.com/news...-acquisition-by-the-resorts-companies-1118223

Personally, I do not think there is a whole lot of synergy between the DVC ecosystem and Massanutten. The latter is, to put it charitably, overbuilt relative to demand, which is exactly the opposite of DVC. It is also not even in the top 20 places I think of when I think "Let's go skiing."

But what do I know?

Either way, congrats to the principals at Keyholder, as this is probably a nice deal for them.

• Brian Noble
• Replies: 35
• Forum: DVC Mousecellaneous

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[Brian Noble]

details the revenue that is being lost to owners under-cutting Disney's hotel business

Thinking about this some more...

The biggest problem might not even be the direct revenue loss. The biggest problem might be a very large advertising ecosystem that consistently and loudly explains that Disney's Deluxe rooms are only worth Moderate room rates.

 

[muppets3d]

RIV has character drop bys?

All the resorts do. Don't you see the character RV parked at the porte cochere when you're staying?

 

[supercarrie]

My hunch is RIV trends downward as more buyers join the pool, and it is no longer actively selling by Disney. This means there is likely to be less emphasis on maintaining the resort at the high level they have in all areas - food, character drop bys, etc.

Have we seen this at other sold out DVC resorts? I'm a newer owner, so genuinely curious. The others *to me* all seem to have retained their high quality bar.