Disney's Long Term DVC Strategy

[Disneydad14]

Perhaps better than others but look how far riveria has already fallen and it’s practically brand new and a well like resort.

I think it was a missed opportunity for the dvc community to push back against what could be a existential threat to the overall product that we all
Love.

 

[AstroBlasters]

DVC’s long term strategy- Make goal this quarter to hit bonus and incentive share targets. Repeat next quarter.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I personally hope Disney differentiates even harder so I can keep racking up resale points as cheap as possible. Give me 2042 resorts as close to zero as possible and I'll be a happy camper just paying dues for the next 17 years and staying on a ton of points. That's a pipe dream of course there's no chance of prices dropping out like that (although I'm looking at you VB). Many buyers understand the game DVC is playing and have to be ok trading away perks in order to maximize points per dollar spent. If perks are important you pony up the direct pricing. If you want to or need to save money then you go resale. Or a hybrid. But no matter the choice DVC has clearly laid out the rules of their game and we have to abide by them if we want to play...and let's be frank...this game is fun to play!

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

So many interesting points raised on this thread— but one thing I haven’t seen yet is how Disney continuing to build out *DVC capacity* much faster than it’s building out park capacity — yes, there are a lot of us Disney diehards—but are there enough to absorb another thousand units every few years? I think this is where Disney may be wiser to keep resale members (and mixed members) feeling appreciated, especially if it costs them nothing and they may even profit. @DonkeyHoTay gave a great example of MMB— I seriously doubt it costs Disney money, like yes, they are selling points a bit cheaper but they are also getting more people to visit more, and buy more of the park tickets, or perhaps plan extra trips to enjoy memory maker, etc. Offering MMB (and lounge access on slower period times?) for a higher premium might be a win-win, or perhaps letting them buy up to 40 premium OTUP to spend a night or two checking out RIV or VDH in hopes they might buy there?

We started as Y card owners (200 points) and then realized it was “just a bit more” to buy sorcerers passes instead of 4 day tickets, then we had passes and decided we needed more points because we couldn’t stretch 200 points to 2 full trips, and then suddenly we owned another 125 resale points, before scooping up another 150 VGF during their big close out blow out. I absolutely think they could do something to target resale owners with a good values that feels like rewarding loyalty but actually helps them get people in parks/resorts at slower periods.

I think the best part is being able to book at 11 months and the ability to switch out at 7 if you want to. Knowing where you will be gives you the ability to tailor make each trip. We've stayed at most of the DVC resorts and enjoyed all of them. The ease of selling and high resale gives peace of mind IMO.

It’s funny because we all think about our own situation and forget there are many different types of buyers DVC needs to attract if they’re going to keep putting up towers every few years— for our family, needing to know when we will travel 9-11mo out is a significant headache. We would own much more VGC, and maybe even VDH, if we felt that we had any chance of getting in 8 weeks out— instead, we own about 1/3 the points we actually want on the assumption we have to guess, only book during the first 3/4 of the UY, and then cancel and bank if plans fall through.

I do think one thing almost all of us have in common is finding the 7mo switch out if you want to be very valuable— I’m still concerned that locking a significant percentage of points into home resorts is going to make it much harder to trade in— probably not for the first 10 years a restricted resort goes on sale, but increasingly as time goes on and more resorts are restricted.

We own at BCV and I’m interested in buying what comes next (even though we will be senior citizens by the time BCV is gone)— but I would be reluctant to buy a large contract that will outlive me by decades if I’m not confident the resale market stays healthy enough for my kids to easily discard it if they want to.

 

[Bo1203]

Have any of your guides mentioned resale? I’m thinking not, they’re too afraid you might learn about it. Promoting the past performance of resale to new buyers (*Past results are not indicative of future results, in size 3 font on the brochure) would be a great selling point.

I would think going forward more and more buyers will be aware of resale. Who’s not making a quick search about a product they are dropping $30k on?

Dvc guides could set up right outside Trader Sam’s or catch you drinking around the world (o wait). Or they could grow/develop a reputation for having a great product. I think by hurting resale, they actually just make those contracts look more appealing to buyers.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Have any of your guides mentioned resale? I’m thinking not, they’re too afraid you might learn about it. Promoting the past performance of resale to new buyers (*Past results are not indicative of future results, in size 3 font on the brochure) would be a great selling point.

I would think going forward more and more buyers will be aware of resale. Who’s not making a quick search about a product they are dropping $30k on?

Dvc guides could set up right outside Trader Sam’s or catch you drinking around the world (o wait). Or they could grow/develop a reputation for having a great product. I think by hurting resale, they actually just make those contracts look more appealing to buyers.

My guide is very much aware that I have significantly more resale points than direct points.

She will sometimes ask how much I got a contract for. Likes to be in the know.

I think Aulani guests have more time to hit up Google and YouTube than people in the parks.

 

[bakerworld]

DVC's long term strategy is to appeal to the 'lazy vacationer', like us. The stress of life can be transformed into park commando-ism or reduced to a tropical rest haven.

The cost of joining is basically about the same as purchasing a car - just have to decide between a Chevy Spark or a Yukon and new or used. I use to drive a former DIS moderator crazy with that analogy but in todays work society cars have evolved more into a 'want' versus a 'need'. For us, the parks are a nice draw but we also just like the vacation aspect of a domestic tropical local with the sanitization of the WDW bubble.

Yes, I have no idea of all the ins and outs of the DVC program. I just use it. Probably could be using it smarter but that would take effort and ruin my lazy vibe. All I know is that the hotel equivalent of a DVC villa is a crap load more than my maintenance dues.

 

[Sandisw]

Perhaps better than others but look how far riveria has already fallen and it’s practically brand new and a well like resort.

I think it was a missed opportunity for the dvc community to push back against what could be a existential threat to the overall product that we all
Love.

Pushback comes from people not buying the product and there are definitely plenty of owners who have chosen not to purchase RIV due to the restrictions. It may even be the same for VDH and CFW...wait...people aren't buying CFW for reasons other than that...lol

But remember, not everyone goes into DVC with the same thinking when it comes to resale value. We bought in 2009, when resale and direct was exactly the same product and didn't consider resale value as part of the equation. We are simply indifferent to them because the value was in its use and not what would happen when we sell.

I think DVD went into restrictions playing the long game and that it would take several restricted resorts to be part of the product before it would be seen as "the norm"....

We shall see what happens with VLL if it is given the restrictions....which I assume it will....and whether people can overlook them for that project in the way some have with RIV.

 

[Disneydad14]

Pushback comes from people not buying the product and there are definitely plenty of owners who have chosen not to purchase RIV due to the restrictions. It may even be the same for VDH and CFW...wait...people aren't buying CFW for reasons other than that...lol

But remember, not everyone goes into DVC with the same thinking when it comes to resale value. We bought in 2009, when resale and direct was exactly the same product and didn't consider resale value as part of the equation. We are simply indifferent to them because the value was in its use and not what would happen when we sell.

I think DVD went into restrictions playing the long game and that it would take several restricted resorts to be part of the product before it would be seen as "the norm"....

We shall see what happens with VLL if it is given the restrictions....which I assume it will....and whether people can overlook them for that project in the way some have with RIV.

Yeah a lot of people never think their financial situation will get worse but that’s not prudent unless the cost to someone is insignificant

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah a lot of people never think their financial situation will get worse but that’s not prudent unless the cost to someone is insignificant

I agree that people need to consider all aspects of the decision and why I think it’s unwise to buy expecting it to hold resale value.

The point was more that people have bought RiV, myself included, and VDH, because they enjoy the resort enough to overlook resteictons.

And, from DVDs perspective, making resale an inferior product is what will help them continue to sell new DVC resorts direct.

 

[DougEMG]

I agree that people need to consider all aspects of the decision and why I think it’s unwise to buy expecting it to hold resale value.

The point was more that people have bought RiV, myself included, and VDH, because they enjoy the resort enough to overlook resteictons.

And, from DVDs perspective, making resale an inferior product is what will help them continue to sell new DVC resorts direct.

I bought 2 RIV resale contracts and am in the process of buying a VDH resale contract. The restrictions were not a big factor in my decision. What was a factor was the buy in price (hence not direct) and the location/resort. I'm already thinking about picking up another VDH contract and that will depend how my next trip to DL goes and how many of them in a year I want to do. Do I like the restrictions, no, do I wish they were eliminated yes. On the bright side if enough people don't want to buy resale at those resortes I am more than happy to pick up cheap points.

There is always going to be a floor resale value for a DVC resort based on the cash rate for that same Disney resort. So, Disney can't destroy the resale value unless they destroy the cash value of staying at their own resorts. They would be much better off making the resale value so high that more buyers would pick direct over resale. For me, the main advantage of resale is the price savings!

 

[Disneydad14]

I bought 2 RIV resale contracts and am in the process of buying a VDH resale contract. The restrictions were not a big factor in my decision. What was a factor was the buy in price (hence not direct) and the location/resort. I'm already thinking about picking up another VDH contract and that will depend how my next trip to DL goes and how many of them in a year I want to do. Do I like the restrictions, no, do I wish they were eliminated yes. On the bright side if enough people don't want to buy resale at those resortes I am more than happy to pick up cheap points.

There is always going to be a floor resale value for a DVC resort based on the cash rate for that same Disney resort. So, Disney can't destroy the resale value unless they destroy the cash value of staying at their own resorts. They would be much better off making the resale value so high that more buyers would pick direct over resale. For me, the main advantage of resale is the price savings!

I bought 2 RIV resale contracts and am in the process of buying a VDH resale contract. The restrictions were not a big factor in my decision. What was a factor was the buy in price (hence not direct) and the location/resort. I'm already thinking about picking up another VDH contract and that will depend how my next trip to DL goes and how many of them in a year I want to do. Do I like the restrictions, no, do I wish they were eliminated yes. On the bright side if enough people don't want to buy resale at those resortes I am more than happy to pick up cheap points.

There is always going to be a floor resale value for a DVC resort based on the cash rate for that same Disney resort. So, Disney can't destroy the resale value unless they destroy the cash value of staying at their own resorts. They would be much better off making the resale value so high that more buyers would pick direct over resale. For me, the main advantage of resale is the price savings!

I think it might be true for true for VDH but I suspect Riveria will end up dropping significantly from its current resale price. It’s even low now for a resort of its quality and popularity and its new .

 

[Brian Noble]

There is always going to be a floor resale value for a DVC resort based on the cash rate for that same Disney resort. So, Disney can't destroy the resale value unless they destroy the cash value of staying at their own resorts.

There is one other way: adding enough FUD to the private owner rental market to severely curtail demand. Wyndham has done this successfully, and Disney has mumbled in this direction.

 

[intamin]

My guide is very much aware that I have significantly more resale points than direct points.

She will sometimes ask how much I got a contract for. Likes to be in the know.

I think Aulani guests have more time to hit up Google and YouTube than people in the parks.

Do you know if they're able to see multiple use years/memberships belonging to the same person all at once or do they have to manually look up each membership?

 

[mkatsy]

Do you know if they're able to see multiple use years/memberships belonging to the same person all at once or do they have to manually look up each membership?

IDK but I have three use years and when I book my reservations for the quarterly condo association meeting they all get booked under my direct point use year. If I try and book them individually it gives me an error. So they are all tied together as one master account somehow.

 

[Sandisw]

I think it might be true for true for VDH but I suspect Riveria will end up dropping significantly from its current resale price. It’s even low now for a resort of its quality and popularity and its new .

Well, it is 5 1/2 years old. But, here is what we don’t know and won’t until RiV is sold out and there are no incentives.

If your only option to get RIV points is to buy direct at $250 or resale…one might be willing to pay $120 or $130 for it…and that could prevent it from falling too low.

Let’s look at what people are paying for BLT or CCV vs RIV right now.

The price difference is about $20/points on average for those near park resorts, and they trade to other resorts vs RiV having no trading ability.

This isn’t about loss in value against purchase price but rather what buyers are paying for certain resorts. We know that RiV owners who buy direct today will see a larger drop than say a PVB owner buying direct today will.

But we do see that the current resale buying public is valuing restricted RiV pretty similar with BLT and CCV…and worth more than SSR, OKW, or AKV.

Which is why IMO DVD hasn’t wavered because resale is beginning to equalize a bit.

 

[Sandisw]

Do you know if they're able to see multiple use years/memberships belonging to the same person all at once or do they have to manually look up each membership?

They can pull you up by your info and see everything you own.

 

[The Jackal]

And it's by all accounts a beautiful property (Wyndham, I mean). Plainly visible from Riviera and other places on WDW property. While Wyndham is near WDW it is far from being in the bubble. I would say that Swan and Dolphin are much closer to being in the Disney bubble than Bonnet Creek.

How can you say it is far from being in the bubble. The property abuts Caribbean Beach Resort and Riviera Resort. If Wyndham is outside the bubble so is CBR and RIV. The only way it is outside the bubble, it doesn’t have the perks or Disney transportation. Sean and Dolphin get some perks due to the lawsuit, but they no longer have Disney bus transportation. They do use the friendship boats to Epcot and HS though.

 

[tidefan]

Meanwhile, they are slowly giving more to direct buyers: the new member lounge in MK, Membership Magic Beyond.

Personally, I consider MMB to be a downgrade for direct members by making the lounges essentially pay-for-play.

 

[eticketplease]

Its a long way off but once these resorts start expiring Disneys policies will really hurt if not destroy the resale market. In 2042 we will lose potentially 4 resorts. My guess is Vero and HH will be gone (which I know for others they might not care but I absolutely would not have bought 2 resale contracts if it wasnt for the 3 non Disney resorts. When they re-sell boardwalk and beach club my guess is that you won't be able to go there with a resale contract.

As the years go by and more resorts close the resale market will lose value as the restrictions are more affected. I know everyone will respond and say "yeah but thats 2060' i get that and I am not staying up at night worried about that because I dont think I will hold onto the contracts i just bought for more than 5-10 years but it is interesting to think about.

If disney is effective at killing the resale market I don't know if it will be good for them long term. I only bought DVC because of the ability to get out of it easily and retain most of its value. Without the resale market DVC will more closely resemble a typical timeshare. The Riveria restrictions were a red line and the fact that they seem to have no problem selling them despite the fact it is obvious those contracts will be bad values, especially as Riviera ages is interesting to me. I guess its how the old exspression goes, "never give a sucker a honest deal".

No love for BRV?

I only see us losing 2 resorts, HHI & VB.
BCV, BRV & BWV will most likely be resold allowing current eligible owners to continue to book there. It will of course be a blow to those with non grandfathered resale contracts.