Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[gottalovepluto]

I'm in a bad mental spot right now, so take this with a grain of salt.

I feel that Disney could have done something to employ more of their workers and open within the restrictions given by the state, but they want the show and spectacle of a grand re-opening ( ex. "We're opening on our anniversary!")

Knotts started with a small event ($15 a ticket, I think) then went slightly bigger ($30/person). I feel that Disney doesn't want to diminish their ticket prices. Even prior to Covid they were wary of lowering the price for non-peak days.

There’s a risk you lose money doing an event like that. Wall St has thrown a crapton off money at Disney that can keep the company afloat for a long time- why risk losing that cash?

 

[mel2014]

I don't know. I mean, there have been literally NO guidelines released for any outdoor activities. Playgrounds are still closed and surrounded by caution tape. Beaches state wide are still only officially open for "active use."

It seems like they simply have not yet figured out what is safe to do outdoors (spoiler: basically everything outdoors is safe) or published any guidelines for such.

I really don't understand why even water parks haven't been allowed to open yet with capacity limits. It really defies logic at this point.

It really does seem like he is waiting until after Labor Day to release outdoor activity guidelines.

This isn't quite true -- the family entertainment guidelines discuss indoor and outdoor activities at length --our local minigolf place opened when moved into Tier 2+ under the old system in June. We also have two local zipline/Ropes Course/rock climb places that are open, our local "Fairytale Town" which is like a zoo/playground is open with a limit of one group per play structure, zoos are open, including our local Six Flags, which has animals. For theme parks other than Disney and Universal, almost all of their operations are outdoors, so an outdoor only limitation would be feasible for them.

I think public playgrounds are closed because there is no one there to enforce distancing and it's hard for young kids to take turns and stay apart. There's also no economic impact to keeping them closed.

 

[Malcon10t]

I'm in a bad mental spot right now, so take this with a grain of salt.

I feel that Disney could have done something to employ more of their workers and open within the restrictions given by the state, but they want the show and spectacle of a grand re-opening ( ex. "We're opening on our anniversary!")

I think they WANTED to do the reopening on July 17, but it was sunk when things got turned upside down. And then there was no way they could make a plan that would satisfy the Union. It wasn't the governor that has stopped DIsneyland from opening, but the Unions. But they are close, and I believe we will see a reopening before Halloween. I would expect it to follow the state guidelines (ie limited inside stores to 50%, if they make it to Red Tier, inside rides limited to 50%, park limited to 30% capacity.

Disney can do what Seaworld is doing. Gate charge $75 and APs $30 for food+wine and street entertainment. It'll bring in plenty of business I bet.---sellout business in fact.

I am willing to bet APs would drop $50 for just Food+Wine side to open. At least there's four tickets waiting to be purchased a few times over next few months

I think this would be too difficult. I kept thinking they could reopen CA Adv. and do a Food and Wine type thing, then I started thinking about the costs, the price of the tickets. It would need to be about 50% of a 1 day ticket (like Knotts), but even at $80 per person (no APs) would enough people be willing to pay that?

 

[ten6mom]

Your expectations are too high. Tickets disappearing from the app happen often (more so now admittedly but this has been an issue from day 1). A screenshot is just as good (and if you’re worried Disney might change something the paper backup in your purse/bag is always Best on your first day.

I know, I know.... Disney IT!!!

I had only added them to the app to begin with to (hopefully) increase my chances of my family being able to use them IF the early reopening days were only available to people who already had tickets. I mean, obviously I HAVE the tickets, but I was trying to do everything possible.

Time will tell... If we cannot go in early October then I will have to get those tickets refunded too (I've already started the refund request for two other UCT tickets we had bought).

We are sure missing our happy place right now.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

I'm in a bad mental spot right now...

Hugs to you. Hang in there!

 

[StormyCA]

I think the thing as far as DL, USH, & 6FMM is just the sheer SIZE of them. Mom & Pop's Putt Putt Golf or Uncle Stumpy's Arcade with their smaller capacity will be much easier to manage/police as far as crowds and compliance. The 'big guys' are so huge (size and crowd-wise) that I think the State is having to be extra stringent with them to be sure all the 'what ifs' are covered. And I think as well as 'how do you reopen safely' there also has to be a strategy for 'how do you close down again' and 'how are you (or the State) prepared to assist in/do contact tracing'. IDK if just press releases saying "Hey if you were at DL last Thursday, you were exposed" like with the measles outbreak will be enough. I have a feeling there is much more to reopening than I, or many of us, realize. FLA seems to have had a much more aggressive 'open up' policy than CA does.

Some people (not necessarily here) have said "But nail salons/spas/barber shops are open!!". You can't compare a nail salon or a barber shop with a theme park. They're allowed to be open because your exposure risk is so much smaller in a salon or barber shop with a much lower total number of visitors per day if things get 'sloppy'. I'd calculate that my stylist's salon has maybe 70 'bodies' inside (stylists, clients, random friends, sales/suppliers) during a typical day. A larger salon may have as many as 100-150. DL has (we guess) 50-60K on a crowded day. Even at 25% capacity that's still around 12-15,000. That's a HUGE difference in the risk of exposure.

 

[Aurora0427]

I received an email from disney destinations this morning and got all excited thinking it was a discount code for Disneyland. Alas, it was for WDW.

 

[midnight star]

I received an email from disney destinations this morning and got all excited thinking it was a discount code for Disneyland. Alas, it was for WDW.

Same

 

[cmrdgrs]

I've been checking daily -- I guess no word yet about reservation through the end of September? I checked the Disneyland website and tried to see if they are allowing bookings at the GCH for this weekend and it looks like these dates are blocked out

I'll wait for DVC to cancel my room, because if by some miracle they open the resort DH and I would go just to have a vacation and I have banked points I'm looking to use.

Turning my sights to Columbus Day weekend now.

 

[bassgirl]

Full disclosure, I won’t go to DLR unless the rides (indoor and outdoor) are open. I know a lot of people get joy out of looking at the characters and decorations, but for me it’s all of it(CM’s, characters even if from afar, rides, food) that make the experience for me. I would love to throw Disney my money, but no POTC or GOTG is a major deal breaker for me. I’ll just have to wait until rides can open, whenever that is. That may be a while too since Reopening theme parks is most likely not on top of Newsom’s list right now. ☹

guys....I miss the rides so much

Also agree 100%. My thought is Disney wants to give their guests as much of a full experience as possible. The rides are a big part of the atmosphere for me and my family. It would be very depressing to be walking by Matterhorn and having silence. It would be awful to walk by POTC and tell my kids "Sorry, you CAN'T go in there". My "speculation" is that they will open sooner than later and that it would be modeled after WDW. The color tier thing going on? Yes, I know it's there and very real, BUT as we have noticed from news conferences theme parks seem to be treated a little differently. Maybe the state is waiting just a wee bit longer until school gets going (in person or not) so that Disney would have it that much easier with crowd limits etc. That could mean a late September or Early October reopening. I hope.

 

[gottalovepluto]

I've been checking daily -- I guess no word yet about reservation through the end of September? I checked the Disneyland website and tried to see if they are allowing bookings at the GCH for this weekend and it looks like these dates are blocked out

I'll wait for DVC to cancel my room, because if by some miracle they open the resort DH and I would go just to have a vacation and I have banked points I'm looking to use.

Turning my sights to Columbus Day weekend now.

Looks like hotels are available starting 10/1?

 

[montreid]

Disney can crowd manage without Gov's 'assistance'.

I would venture that any viable opening would be better than nothing at all and wouldn't need anything more than 25% capacity to be profitable itself along with the downstream economies an opened DLR will have on its hotels and DtD itself.

While many will stay away until fully opened and/or COVID better control; my speculation with the large local AP population, reopening at new level will fill the 25% capacity limit which both Disney (Shanghai) and State (reopening tiers) have adopted as an initial phase. By using a festival with forced spend on the AP population like how Knott's and Seaworld has done.

 

[midnight star]

Disney can crowd manage without Gov's 'assistance'.

I would venture that any viable opening would be better than nothing at all and wouldn't need anything more than 25% capacity to be profitable itself along with the downstream economies an opened DLR will have on its hotels and DtD itself.

While many will stay away until fully opened and/or COVID better control; my speculation with the large local AP population, reopening at new level will fill the 25% capacity limit which both Disney (Shanghai) and State (reopening tiers) have adopted as an initial phase. By using a festival with forced spend on the AP population like how Knott's and Seaworld has done.

I was thinking (b/c what else is there to do while the parks are closed? lol). I wonder if when DL opens they will have the shortened hours like WDW does. And if so, they have a paid extra event similar to the events that Knotts and Sea World are doing? That way they can still be "open" all day, but make extra money?

 

[cmrdgrs]

Looks like hotels are available starting 10/1?

I called Disney Travel this morning and the CM told me that Disney is currently taking reservations for Paradise Pier and GCH starting on 9/16. The Disneyland Hotel is taking reservations starting 10/1. No guarantee of the resorts opening (of course) but you can make a hotel only reservation for those dates.

 

[EDS19]

According to BlogMickey they are saying Disney sent out cancellations for hotel reservations through September 19th.

https://blogmickey.com/2020/09/disneyland-cancels-reservations-through-september-19th/

 

[KPeterso]

I've been checking daily -- I guess no word yet about reservation through the end of September? I checked the Disneyland website and tried to see if they are allowing bookings at the GCH for this weekend and it looks like these dates are blocked out

I'll wait for DVC to cancel my room, because if by some miracle they open the resort DH and I would go just to have a vacation and I have banked points I'm looking to use.

Turning my sights to Columbus Day weekend now.

DVC typically cancels about 3 weeks out, so end of September will not come up yet. This week should probably be 9/18 - 9/24 types of dates. Oh and DVC will not email you about the cancellation --- you need to keep checking your dashboard to see if it shows cancelled. I am in the same boat with expiring DVC banked points (mine expire 11/30 and 1/31 --- I have 2 memberships). I just keep looking for a random night here and there and am finding dates all the time. My 9/17-9/18 was cancelled last week, but I have now booked 10/8-10/9 to try to use the points. Same in January I have 1/14-1/15 to use those last few Feb use year points up. Here's hoping you and I can find a way to use as many of them as possible.

 

[cmrdgrs]

According to BlogMickey they are saying Disney sent out cancellations for hotel reservations through September 19th.

https://blogmickey.com/2020/09/disneyland-cancels-reservations-through-september-19th/

Interesting. It seems that they are getting less aggressive with cancellations. Before they were cancelling a week or two weeks at a time, and now they only extended the cancellation from 9/16 to 9/19. I see that as a positive step towards re-opening.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Local radio last night was speculating that the State wants to wait until a couple weeks after Labor Day weekend to see if there is a spike. They don't want to allow a bunch of things to open and have the holiday all at the same time because then they would be unable to determine what led to the increase in cases (if there is one). While that seems overly cautious, that also seems like a good thing for the parks. You don't want to see the state close down the parks if the holiday is what caused the increase. That still puts an opening towards the end of the month - fingers crossed the numbers don't spike.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I was thinking (b/c what else is there to do while the parks are closed? lol). I wonder if when DL opens they will have the shortened hours like WDW does. And if so, they have a paid extra event similar to the events that Knotts and Sea World are doing? That way they can still be "open" all day, but make extra money?

Having been to WDW this does not seem likely. There is a real lack of things to do in WDW after the parks close. A lot of people head to Disney Springs and that is near (reduced) capacity. Epcot opens and closes later because there are lots of places to eat there. It would make sense for the rides to close and the restaurants (and maybe major shops) to remain open in the parks, but they are not doing that. My guess is they have run the numbers and determined what they can afford staff-wise and are limiting the park hours based on that. DL is different in that you don't need to travel to DtD, but that is already pretty packed too.

 

[Ladyslug]

Some (slightly) promising news from this article in the SF Chronicle, which is discussing Bay Area counties, but I assume would apply to all counties in California:

But that may change the day after Labor Day, when the state reassesses each county with updated data, and some counties could be assigned new tiers.

Such quick progression for counties in the purple tier, less than two weeks after their initial assignment, would be a one-time occurrence, the state said. In the future, it’ll take longer to progress to less restrictive levels.