Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[Katiebird]

Looks like changes will be coming to the tier system:

https://www.kcra.com/article/california-40-percent-vaccine-vulnerable-areas/35719503

 

[DonaldDuckFan1985]

A good sign regarding Disneyland and Knott’s Berry Farm reopening soon. Knott’s Berry Farm is hiring for 1700 positions in anticipation of reopening soon, including ride operators. (I tried to permalink an article but wasn’t able to, not sure why. A simple Google search will yield this information in many different recent articles though.)

 

[DLgal]

Looks like changes will be coming to the tier system:

https://www.kcra.com/article/california-40-percent-vaccine-vulnerable-areas/35719503

Finally! I wonder what the new criteria will be. Has that been posted yet on the state page?

And OMG, if this goes hand in hand with the theme park assembly bill, OC might be in orange tier in a matter of WEEKS. We have had 4 straight days of a case rate around 5 per 100k with both other metrics already in the (current) orange tier.

 

[Epicnemesis]

Why are all of these policies so arbitrary.
“We have concluded that these 400 zip codes are super important, so we are going to hold the rest of the state hostage until they clear an imaginary threshold”

Am I understanding this new rule wrong?Why does the restaurant in Mammoth care about what a random zip code in Los Angeles’ vaccine rate is?

I’ll take progress wherever I can get it if it means the parks open sooner, but it feels like they are using MadLibs to dictate policy in Sacramento.

 

[kristensideaoffun]

Why are all of these policies so arbitrary.
“We have concluded that these 400 zip codes are super important, so we are going to hold the rest of the state hostage until they clear an imaginary threshold”

Am I understanding this new rule wrong?Why does the restaurant in Mammoth care about what a random zip code in Los Angeles’ vaccine rate is?

I’ll take progress wherever I can get it if it means the parks open sooner, but it feels like they are using MadLibs to dictate policy in Sacramento.

They are zip codes that are the hardest hit by the virus. Essentially, those zip codes are holding back the rest of the areas in their counties because their case rates are so high. If they can get the virus under control in those areas, the case rate overall for their counties will go down more rapidly.

But to get back on track with the reopening speculation, I think they will either raise the thresholds of cases/100,000 and % positive and/or lower the amount of time a county needs to stay in one tier before they can move to the next.

 

[Katiebird]

I think the article I posted covered some of the changes (or maybe it was a different article sorry), but iirc once those zip codes hit 2M vaccines (they're at 1.6 now I think, so that's probably a couple of weeks), red would be at 10/100k instead of 7. I think yellow and orange change later after more vaccines.

 

[DLgal]

I think the article I posted covered some of the changes (or maybe it was a different article sorry), but iirc once those zip codes hit 2M vaccines (they're at 1.6 now I think, so that's probably a couple of weeks), red would be at 10/100k instead of 7. I think yellow and orange change later after more vaccines.

Edited: Yeah it seems there are 2 goals. A 2 million vaccine goal will unlock Red at 10 per 100k. A second goal of 4 million vaccines will shift Orange and Yellow tiers to higher upper level values. Yellow will be up to 2 per 100k and Orange will be 2.1-5.9 per 100k. Red will be 6-10 per 100k.

 

[MintRR]

:::cracks knuckles:::

Time for some good old fashion speculation ‘round here. With absolutely zero solid evidence to back this date up: Friday, May 21 at 8:00am. Partly cloudy morning giving way to brilliant sunshine, high of 74 degrees.

Okay, that is now out there in the universe. May the odds be ever in our favor

 

[DLgal]

:::cracks knuckles:::

Time for some good old fashion speculation ‘round here. With absolutely zero solid evidence to back this date up: Friday, May 21 at 8:00am. Partly cloudy morning giving way to brilliant sunshine, high of 74 degrees.

Okay, that is now out there in the universe. May the odds be ever in our favor

Sounds possible. I think it will definitely be in May.

 

[Lumpy1106]

:::cracks knuckles:::

Time for some good old fashion speculation ‘round here. With absolutely zero solid evidence to back this date up: Friday, May 21 at 8:00am. Partly cloudy morning giving way to brilliant sunshine, high of 74 degrees.

Okay, that is now out there in the universe. May the odds be ever in our favor

You may not be far off. Even without the re-jiggering of the tiers, we will be in yellow in about 2 months IF (HUGE IF!!) the infection rate trend continues. Give Disney a couple of weeks to open the gates like they did @ WDW and that date looks pretty good.

 

[kristensideaoffun]

:::cracks knuckles:::

Time for some good old fashion speculation ‘round here. With absolutely zero solid evidence to back this date up: Friday, May 21 at 8:00am. Partly cloudy morning giving way to brilliant sunshine, high of 74 degrees.

Okay, that is now out there in the universe. May the odds be ever in our favor

I am going with Friday, May 28th. Just in time for Memorial Day weekend and my daughters birthday.

Whispers, “Do it for her.”

 

[Lumpy1106]

I am going with Friday, May 28th. Just in time for Memorial Day weekend and my daughters birthday.

Whispers, “Do it for her.”

Well, if we are playing that game, my DD sweet 16 is 5/2. CLAIMED!

 

[DLgal]

May the 4th.

Be with us!

 

[Lumpy1106]

May the 4th.

Be with us!

I feel like I just got played on PiR

I'll allow it.

 

[Epicnemesis]

I lost my speculative license back in August. All of these seem likely though. Especially when you consider Knotts is hiring, Magic Mountain is saying “spring” I would think May is the safe money bet. Second half of April is the aggressive bet. People who say June or later are all negative Nancy’s. (And are probably going to be right)

 

[kucanhead]

:::cracks knuckles:::

Time for some good old fashion speculation ‘round here. With absolutely zero solid evidence to back this date up: Friday, May 21 at 8:00am. Partly cloudy morning giving way to brilliant sunshine, high of 74 degrees.

Okay, that is now out there in the universe. May the odds be ever in our favor

I'm going to have to go with 5/14 since I have VGC reservations for that weekend that I can't reschedule due to June use year. I'd be annoyed if they opened up the weekend after that. And I'd be even more annoyed if they also stopped the Taste of Disney event before that to prepare for "full" opening. I probably just jinxed myself...

 

[taaren]

I'm going to have to go with 5/14 since I have VGC reservations for that weekend that I can't reschedule due to June use year. I'd be annoyed if they opened up the weekend after that. And I'd be even more annoyed if they also stopped the Taste of Disney event before that to prepare for "full" opening. I probably just jinxed myself...

I'll hope for 5/14 for you. I had that weekend at one point. After I lost Memorial Day weekend in a 1 bedroom due to a borrowing error and not wanting my points stuck in the previous UY (I'm also June, had to use up extended 2019 points), I booked every weekend in June as I could get them because only one day of each weekend was available at any given time. First Mother's Day (studio), then the 1st weekend (1 bdr), then the 14th, then the 21st, and finally I got back Memorial Day weekend, although I have a studio now instead of a 1 bedroom. Close enough.
Play the wait list game and stalk if you want a later weekend, it works ... eventually ...

 

[upritbass]

I'm going to have to go with 5/14 since I have VGC reservations for that weekend that I can't reschedule due to June use year. I'd be annoyed if they opened up the weekend after that. And I'd be even more annoyed if they also stopped the Taste of Disney event before that to prepare for "full" opening. I probably just jinxed myself...

We’re hedging our bets a little more (after 6! cancellations) with 5/19. Any time in April ain’t gonna happen because VGC doesn’t open until May.

 

[DLgal]

We’re hedging our bets a little more (after 6! cancellations) with 5/19. Any time in April ain’t gonna happen because VGC doesn’t open until May.

That doesn't mean anything. They can absolutely open the park without the hotels being open. I have a feeling, actually, that the hotels won't come online until quite awhile after the parks reopen. I think GCH will return fully first, but DLH and PPH will remain closed for several months until capacity restrictions are loosened.

 

[montreid]

VGC 5/2- canary - three weeks - targets hotel GC opens with possible DLR same day for 5 days shakedown for the holiday weekend.