Disney Vacation Club adjusts 2010 Vacation Points charts

[BWV Dreamin]

It's not feasible with out a min stay of at least 5=7 days for the very reason you want it.

I bet most stay at least 5 days anyway. This big reallocation did nothing to affect the S-TH ressie stays. Just go ahead and make them the same points for every day of the week. I mean the reason they did this to start with was weekends were under utilized. So THEY say.......

 

[DaveH]

It's not feasible with out a min stay of at least 5=7 days for the very reason you want it.

I agree with you. I would rather have the points system uneven so we have the flexibility we now have. I did this to make a point. It seems some folks are having trouble understanding the changes are needed. Our vacations habits have changed a couple of ways over the last 8 years we have been DVC members. Our current habits the change has made some vacations more and others cheaper. The way we were going when first bought a change of a couple of points then. I honestly believe if we went to a flat rate minimum 5 to 7 days or flat 7 day stays we would sell. I know you and a couple of others have tried to explain this is hopefully good for the DVC system.

 

[tjkraz]

Disney now cannot sell the loans for DVC membership which has accounted for almost 10% of the Disney Parks profits.

The Sentinel article that you previously quoted stated that the loan securitization generated 2% of the Parks' profit in '08, not 10%. And while Disney has recently found it difficult to flip those mortgages for a quick buck, if forced to hold them until maturity they stand to add much more to the bottom line. It will just be a gradual addition rather than a quick cash infusions.

With the tight credit markets, and households being cautious in their spending, the ability of Disney to sell DVC points is currently an unknown. Today's unemployment numbers and record mass layoffs continue to plague the economy. Florida is one of 5 states that has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation. Disney cannot rely on Florida resident traffic to fill the rooms and parks on the weekends. Time will tell.

Sales figures aren't a total unknown.

http://dvcnews.com/content/view/826/233/

Sales for the last 6 months are higher than the same period over '07-'08, and those numbers do not even include the Grand Californian which began selling in January.

It's also worth noting that until the current batch of incentives was unveiled on April 1st, DVC prices had gone up about 8-10% over the previous year. And people are still buying.

I do agree with part of your argument--I think that DVC has made a conscious effort to raise the overall cost of the program. Prices are higher and it costs more points per night to book a room at the newer resorts. But I disagree on the motivation.

Whether DVC hands us piles of statistics or not, the under-utilization of units on weekends is quite easy to see. Cash discounts are readily available on the weekends--not so on weekdays. The mass arrivals on Sunday and departures on Friday are pretty easy to see when staying.

Consider this--over the past 7 years I've heard people countless times talk about how they bought points specifically for Sunday - Thursday stays. Has anyone EVER said that they bought DVC exclusively for Friday and Saturday stays? If the system was in balance, shouldn't there be just as many people using points exclusively for weekends as there are using points exclusively for weekdays?

If the system weren't so far out of balance I'd be more open to considering other theories. But without any semblance of a weekday/weekend balance, it's not even worth considering other motivation.

Brace yourself for early-December being moved out of Adventure season next!

 

[tjkraz]

I bet most stay at least 5 days anyway.

I'm not so sure about that. I'm pretty stingy with my points but I can think of at least 4 trips (out of maybe 10) that have been 3 days or less. We've done a couple 3-night getaways, a short stay when I was in town for a conference and another the night before our DCL cruise.

We also did a split stay with just one night at the first resort. That wouldn't be allowed with a 5-day minimum.

Minimums have the potential to leave a lot of unused nights at the resorts due to the varying arrival and departure dates. Let's say we have a room that's booked from the 1st to the 5th, and then the next guest is scheduled for the 8th to the 15th. The room would sit empty for the 6th and 7th because nobody could book the minimum 5-night stay.

Overall I think minimums would have a very damaging impact on members' abilities to use their points. Resorts are sold to near 100% and it would be virtually impossible for occupancy to ever reach that level.

 

[DaveH]

My guess is if DVC changes system to minimum stay of longer than 1 day(now) it would be to 7 days. With start on Saturdays. Just a guess. I would probably sell then.

Our first stay home was a 1 night at OKW and then 5 nights at VWL and 1 night at OKW. Only rooms available to us. That was in 2001.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I'm not so sure about that. I'm pretty stingy with my points but I can think of at least 4 trips (out of maybe 10) that have been 3 days or less. We've done a couple 3-night getaways, a short stay when I was in town for a conference and another the night before our DCL cruise.

We also did a split stay with just one night at the first resort. That wouldn't be allowed with a 5-day minimum.

Minimums have the potential to leave a lot of unused nights at the resorts due to the varying arrival and departure dates. Let's say we have a room that's booked from the 1st to the 5th, and then the next guest is scheduled for the 8th to the 15th. The room would sit empty for the 6th and 7th because nobody could book the minimum 5-night stay.
Overall I think minimums would have a very damaging impact on members' abilities to use their points. Resorts are sold to near 100% and it would be virtually impossible for occupancy to ever reach that level.

The discussion is not how members prefer to use their points...the subject is WHY the reallocation took place in the first place. And from Disney's perspective, not members, it was because of underulization of weekends...again, SUPPOSIDLY. Sooo....in that regard it would make sense to go to at least a 5 day booking minimum to help offset the vacant rooms on the weekends. Disney does not care how you use your points, whether you bought 50 or 500. They want the rooms filled.

 

[tjkraz]

The discussion is not how members prefer to use their points...

Sorry, I thought you were going down that road with your "I bet most stay at least 5 days anyway" comment. My bad.

...the subject is WHY the reallocation took place in the first place. And from Disney's perspective, not members, it was because of underulization of weekends...again, SUPPOSIDLY. Sooo....in that regard it would make sense to go to at least a 5 day booking minimum to help offset the vacant rooms on the weekends. Disney does not care how you use your points, whether you bought 50 or 500. They want the rooms filled.

I understand that. And the point of my response was to try and illustrate that a 5-day minimum wouldn't accomplish that goal.

When you look at something like a cruise ship, every guest arrives and departs at the same time. There are no gaps. The same would be true if DVC went to a 7-day minimum as DaveH suggested with every guest having the same arrival and departure dates. 400 rooms at a resort means 400 guests serviced in the week.

But if you go to a 5-day minimum with no standard arrival, you create gaps that nobody can ever utilize. Periods where 1-4 days exist between the departure of one guest and arrival of the next would result in the room sitting empty. Gone would be the ability to get last-minute bookings by piecing together small split stays.

I don't see how minimum stays could encourage a high occupancy. I see the opposite occurring.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Most of my stays have not been 5 days, even if the trip is more than that. I have been enjoying split stays and more often or not, I have a weekend night or two in there. I am happy that there has been this small step toward helping me stretch my points. When the extended family comes, then we do not move, and even with them in a 2 bedroom over weekend nights, I've used the points.

Bobbi

 

[donmil723]

I don't mind that they have raised the Sun-Thu nights by one or two points and lowered the weekend nights the same. I've only checked the BCV charts. When we first bought we usually went Sun-Thur. Lately we have been going for a full week but we like to arrive/leave on a Tues or Wed so we can get the cheaper airline flights. We did spend 3 nights at AKV after our 7-day DCL cruise in March and we plan to stay 4 nights in December after our 3 night cruise. I like that flexibility and that was one of the major reasons we bought DVC. I would not like them to go to a booking system where you would have to book a full week starting on Saturday.

 

[SoCalKDG]

They might lose some DCL customers going to a 7 day. Doing a 4 day cruise in Feb. then a couple nights (Thursday Friday) at a DVC. I'd have skipped the cruise completely if this option wasn't available.

 

[DVCGeek]

My guess is if DVC changes system to minimum stay of longer than 1 day(now) it would be to 7 days.

My BLT & VGC contracts say that a minimum stay could at most be 5 days long if they ever created one. I used that and the "max. reallocation" figures to determine how many points to buy in our VGC add on. 5 * max reallocation (for a studio in our case - 18 as I recall) = 90 points for a stay; / 3 for banking and borrowing; round up and that gave 30 as the minimum # of points we needed to be safe and sure it would be possible to use our points at some time during the year every 3rd year. We don't plan to go to CA more often than that but wanted more flexability on WHEN we went so we were going to buy 40 points. Then we upped the contract to 50 points instead for the incentives, and that means we might even be able to swing a 1 bedroom sometimes depending on what the point charts look like when we want to go...

 

[DisFlan]

Not everyone will embrace weekends after the changes but more will than in the past. The resorts aren't at 0% occupancy on weekends now. SOME volume of members is already using their points for weekends. And that number will rise come 2010.

Not charging a premium for weekends would have the opposite effect. Right now so many people are used to visiting on weekdays to save points that it's become second nature. But you better believe folks would jump at the opportunity to do a long weekend without having to pay that premium.

Instead of pulling kids out of school or scheduling around busy holidays, parents could plan a Thursday to Monday stay (5 days.) If one or two of those days were already school holidays, the kids wouldn't miss more than a day or two. Parents would save vacation time as well.

Weekends would become very popular and weekday occupancy would suffer noticeably.

Just due to the nature of the 5-day work and school week, some disparity is necessary. We'll have to see how these changes are embraced. I wouldn't be shocked if weekday prices came down a bit in a few years. It won't be to the 2009 level, but there could be reductions if booking patterns dictate.

Let me say that DVC's flexibility is what drew us in. We didn't really want to purchase a week somewhere. And I agree that making weekends too "cheap" has its problems. But what is the optimum differential? We know that weekend nights that cost 2x points didn't work well. Too many members avoided them. What works? 1.5x? 1.25x? IMO, the current changes aren't enough to make a huge difference. Weekends are still high enough to encourage avoidance.

My other thought is about the fine line between what's best for DVC versus what keeps members happy. Yes, we'll get over most of the inevitable changes (more point - and season - changes) and move on - but there's a collective "phase change" point where too many members may say, "This isn't what I bought. And I don't like it."

DisFlan

 

[Dean]

I bet most stay at least 5 days anyway. This big reallocation did nothing to affect the S-TH ressie stays. Just go ahead and make them the same points for every day of the week. I mean the reason they did this to start with was weekends were under utilized. So THEY say.......

The question is what is the balance. No doubt weekends would be MUCH higher in demand if there were no points differential. There is a lot of research in this area through ARDA and every system I know of that allows less than 7 days has a differential though they all vary somewhat. The reallocation will adjust weekends to weekdays, the question is whether it will be enough, if not, there will be another reallocation down the road in a few years, possibly sooner. The average stay doesn't really have much affect overall unless it's almost exactly 7 days. Even then it has to balance weekends to weekdays. As I've said before, if I was that distrustful of the system, I'd do something about it. I'd sell or get more involved to find out why. This info though not internet knowledge, is available to members in person, at least the DVC portion, not necessarily the DVD items such as some contracts.

 

[snyderla]

I liked it the way it was. We usually arrive on a Thursday or Friday and spend the first few nights, until Sunday, in a resort on cash. This way we try different resorts. I only have 4 more to try.

The points change is not a huge amount, but can quickly add up to a night at OKW.

 

[dmoore22]

The Sentinel article that you previously quoted stated that the loan securitization generated 2% of the Parks' profit in '08, not 10%.

True, that was stated in the article. However, it also goes on to say,

"Morgan Stanley estimates that Vacation Club accounted for as much as 20 percent of the profit growth for Disney Parks and Resorts in fiscal 2008. Disney itself credited higher time-share sales with helping offset declines elsewhere in its parks unit during the first quarter of fiscal 2009; total revenue for Parks and Resorts fell about 4 percent during the quarter from a year earlier, less than many analysts had expected.

Vacation Club contributes about 10 percent of the parks-and-resorts unit's total profit, Staggs said during the December analyst conference."

 

[Inkmahm]

True you may spend less but as long as there are 365 (or 366) days in the year, Disney is still making similar dollars by filling a room each night. In fact, they probably stand to gain from the reallocation because, by all appearances, weekend occupancy is quite under 100% and one of the goals here is to fix that problem.



I would argue that the opposite has happened. High weekends have ALWAYS been used to subsidize low weekdays. The weekend points are much higher in 2009 and they remain higher in 2010. The primary change is that you aren't getting as big of a break in 2010 as you have in the past.



You're only assuming it wasn't "broke." The current charts (thru 2009) have approximately 45% of all points spread over the two weekend nights. If members aren't using 45% of their points for weekends, the system is absolutely broke.

If Disney sells 10 million points and weekdays represent 5.5 million (55%), you can't have members collectively economizing and use 8 million of their points for weekday stays.

Weekends are higher than weekends due to demand.
Easter week is higher than mid-September due to demand.

DVC has a responsibility to create a system in which demand is in line with cost. Members should have to pay more for weeks and days of the week with higher demand. And when demand is low, the points are discounted (weekdays, Adventure + Choice season.) But we are the ones who determine that demand and I suspect it will remain fluid through the lifetime of the program. These reallocations really should occur every few years.

I agree with you 100%.

 

[klburns]

Wow, this is super frustrating! One of the things that sold us on DVC was the assurance that points for the DVC resorts would not change. Hubby and I have flexible jobs, so we often do the Sun-Thurs plan. Not as economic anymore!

 

[Deb & Bill]

Wow, this is super frustrating! One of the things that sold us on DVC was the assurance that points for the DVC resorts would not change. Hubby and I have flexible jobs, so we often do the Sun-Thurs plan. Not as economic anymore!

I guess you should have read the literature on DVC. It states that points can be reallocated at any time. If a guide tells you something, ask to see it in writing in the DVC literature. Just like the five in a one bedroom. Our guide made sure that we knew that one bedrooms were limited to four persons 1997.

 

[pbharris4]

Maybe I have been under a rock, but I am starting to plan for summer 2010 and noticed that the points have gone up! When did that happen? I thought they were never supposed to do this?

 

[Disnead]

Maybe I have been under a rock, but I am starting to plan for summer 2010 and noticed that the points have gone up! When did that happen? I thought they were never supposed to do this?

I dont think they raised the points, they just shuffled them around a little. If they raise a point in one category, they have to lower it in a different category.

I think I read that in 2010 you will find that the price of a Fri-Sat stay has decreased slightly, and the price of a weekday stay may increase slightly.