Disney shares fall on recession worry

[mitros]

Shares of the Walt Disney company fell Friday after an analyst sad a week economy might hurt the typically recession-proof media conglomerate this time around. The company typically reports strong annual earnings growth, but analysts say that may change in 2008.
Cowen and company analyst Dough Creutz. said in a note to investors Friday that Disneys parks and resorts are the business segments most exposed to a weak economy..............

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

Probably true from an American tourist perspective. For Europeans America is on sale right now so you may just see more foreign nationals in the parks instead. The time of year they are prediciting the slowdown doesn't make much sense (second half of 2008). That's food and wine, halloween and Christmas. Of all of that period probably Aug/Sep and early Dec are vulnerable but not in a big way.

 

[ntsammy5]

The Brits however are hovering on the brink of a RE collapse much larger than what the US is currently struggling with. They're a big part of the European influx.

 

[melly]

The Brits however are hovering on the brink of a RE collapse much larger than what the US is currently struggling with. They're a big part of the European influx.

Its a bit of a myth TBH that ours is anywhere near as or going to be as bad as yours. Our econimic growth while slowing down is still 4 or 5 times better than the US. Our reposessions havent gone through the roof yet, nor has unemployment while the reported so called house price drop is in reality a drop in growth rather than a real drop.

The main issue is over borrowing and the levels of borrowing in the UK compared to GDP is nowhere near as bad as in the US.

 

[ntsammy5]

Its a bit of a myth TBH that ours is anywhere near as or going to be as bad as yours.

According to the Economist, the valuation of real estate in the UK is way, way too high.

 

[melly]

According to the Economist, the valuation of real estate in the UK is way, way too high.

It is and it will adjust and is unlikely to collapse alltogether however that is just looking at one thing.

In terms of economic output and growth we are performing very well and our borrowing compared to the US is much much lower. We will get dragged down a bit, no doubt but I cant see anything like what could happen in the US. Our economy isnt likely to hit a recession this year but even the most optomistic American can see that there is one coming your way (if its not already there!!)

 

[mwehttam]

Wonder if this knuckle head of a analyst is changing his tune now, lol. Shares up a buck today.

Increase in spending at the parks.
Increase in attendance.
Increase in DVC revenue.

 

[LuvOrlando]

-

 

[paulh]

It is and it will adjust and is unlikely to collapse alltogether however that is just looking at one thing.

In terms of economic output and growth we are performing very well and our borrowing compared to the US is much much lower. We will get dragged down a bit, no doubt but I cant see anything like what could happen in the US. Our economy isnt likely to hit a recession this year but even the most optomistic American can see that there is one coming your way (if its not already there!!)

we will have more of a problem when the "buy to let" implodes.I work in construction and honestly have never seen people live in the flats built in city centres,manchester and leeds ect.
Paulh

 

[melly]

we will have more of a problem when the "buy to let" implodes.I work in construction and honestly have never seen people live in the flats built in city centres,manchester and leeds ect.
Paulh

Do you not think that the amature johnny come lately buy to letters will be the ones that suffer. The ones who thought they were on a gravy train but didnt do their homework. The big boys will just hold onto the property and ride the storm even if it means losing in the short term.

 

[MJMcBride]

I was there a week ago and there a ton of europeans, hispanics, and asian nationals

 

[Padrepride]

There is going to be a lot of international travelers in the U.S. until the U.S. dollar gets some value compared to Euros and pounds.

 

[mwehttam]

There is going to be a lot of international travelers in the U.S. until the U.S. dollar gets some value compared to Euros and pounds.

Very true, but is also works the other way. Americans that might have been thinking of taking a trip abroad will think twice and decide to stay state side and one of those choices would be WDW.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

Very true, but is also works the other way. Americans that might have been thinking of taking a trip abroad will think twice and decide to stay state side and one of those choices would be WDW.

Disney is nervous as all get out. Currently they are riding already booked vacations playing out and a strong foreign visitorship (is that a word?). But bookings are way down, look for the announcement soon of a whole resort to close (for refurbishment, of course ) and foreigners, as good as deal as we are currently, cannot make up for the loss in US vacationers which will begin to happen soon as gas approches 5, 6, 7 bucks a gallon and airfares go through the roof.

 

[honeymom]

Even foreignors will start feeling the pinch of those airline ticket costs. I don't think we will see that many if the prices keep heading up at the rate they are.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

Even foreignors will start feeling the pinch of those airline ticket costs. I don't think we will see that many if the prices keep heading up at the rate they are.

Great point. I had not thought of that.

 

[CanadianGuy]

RE: Airline Costs..

Except they are paying those increased fuel costs (fuel is priced to start with in American $) .. with foreign $$$ that is faring much better than the American $.

Airfares from some foreign carriers is simply not being hit as hard as US carriers.

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

Disney is nervous as all get out. Currently they are riding already booked vacations playing out and a strong foreign visitorship (is that a word?). But bookings are way down, look for the announcement soon of a whole resort to close (for refurbishment, of course ) and foreigners, as good as deal as we are currently, cannot make up for the loss in US vacationers which will begin to happen soon as gas approches 5, 6, 7 bucks a gallon and airfares go through the roof.

I agree.

Disney has been targeting Europe and GB with advertising for a while - and that makes perfect sense.

My worry about that is....when the fuel costs begin to hit the international airfare prices....will that discourage our friends on the other side of the Atlantic?

We know long term reservations are down. I wonder how many will be backing out before they fall into penalty with their upcoming reservation?

How will the economy affect YOUR travel plans? Will you go less often but stay longer? Will you go every other year? Will you drop down a resort category? Will you stay off property......or the worst choice.....can you no longer afford to travel?

If you think Anaheim is not burning the midnight oil trying to find a way to muddle through this...you are kidding yourself.

Someone said earlier they will shut down resorts....I had not thought of that ... but it worked for them after 9/11.

 

[mitros]

I agree.

Disney has been targeting Europe and GB with advertising for a while - and that makes perfect sense.

My worry about that is....when the fuel costs begin to hit the international airfare prices....will that discourage our friends on the other side of the Atlantic?

We know long term reservations are down. I wonder how many will be backing out before they fall into penalty with their upcoming reservation?

How will the economy affect YOUR travel plans? Will you go less often but stay longer? Will you go every other year? Will you drop down a resort category? Will you stay off property......or the worst choice.....can you no longer afford to travel?

If you think Anaheim is not burning the midnight oil trying to find a way to muddle through this...you are kidding yourself.

Someone said earlier they will shut down resorts....I had not thought of that ... but it worked for them after 9/11.

I think that Disney better start treating us "regulars", those of us within 100 miles of the resort a little better. The "bennies" always seem to go to others until things like a slow economy, and such horrors as 9/11, slow their business to a trickle. We will still travel that 100 miles or less to go to WDW, while a lot of others will not. What I'm saying is a slow Disney is a blessing for us. The crowds, which as of late have been almost unmanageable, really slack off during bad times which brings us there in droves to shore the place up.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

I think that Disney better start treating us "regulars", those of us within 100 miles of the resort a little better. The "bennies" always seem to go to others until things like a slow economy, and such horrors as 9/11, slow their business to a trickle. We will still travel that 100 miles or less to go to WDW, while a lot of others will not. What I'm saying is a slow Disney is a blessing for us. The crowds, which as of late have been almost unmanageable, really slack off during bad times which brings us there in droves to shore the place up.

I agree. My AP is up for renewal in June and for the first time in 20 years I'm considering whether I will renew. But like you said, I think they'll be needing us 'locals' a bit more in the near future and I would like another shot at an uncrowded park if it comes to that so I'll probably reup.