Based on how the tiers are ever increasing... if you want Dug, yes, you probably will have to do sand whirls at least that far. It's too much happiness to ignore.
I will see how this Season Pass goes. Then I want to get my Christmas gift, but otherwise I am also planning on walking away. People were talking the next event was Encanto, which was semi-interesting as a normal event, but now that there is a teaser it looks like it might be Turning Red, which is a big who cares. I suspect Encanto will be the next Season, and I don't care enough to do that.