Disney is hurting for cash

[montreid]

While Disney may be hurting; it's one of the few entertainment giants that has enough diversity to weather this pandemic and depth to pivot to whatever the new normal will be and grab whatever IP, assets, talent out there at a significant discount in the future.

Parks? Better situated than Legoland, seaworld, and Universal. -- I would argue that Shanghai is a blessing as it's the only one generating any amount of income and satisfies a very deep pocketed and loyal group of fans.

Silver screen? Deep projects waiting; can distribute smaller movies to multiple channels.

These two things are to Disney's advantage of production and revenue:
Animation? can continue to churn out in telework world - pivot to shorts and feed the channels and new primary streaming platform.
Merchandise -- Disney has few rivals on this. Its content vault is deep and kids and adults alike will need to do things and role play.

So while Disney maybe hurting, it has revenue streams a lot more than other entertainment companies.

 

[New Mouse]

Netflix didn’t have its first piece of original content until 6 years after the service started, and wasn’t until 9 years that they had a total 5 original shows.

So I’m not exactly sure it’s correct to assume after 8 months that Disney+ wont have unique content to have long term appeal.

HBOmax and Peacock both have less that Disney+ when they launched

They also didnt have competitors. Big difference.

 

[BrianL]

Theres not enough unique content to have long term appeal. Its pretty stale already after just a few months and I get it for free. Maybe if you have kids it will work.

For me, the back catalog IS Disney+. The new stuff is nice too, but I have it to be able to explore almost a century of Disney content. I don't have kids either, I'm just a Disney fan.

 

[Mit88]

They also didnt have competitors. Big difference.

Cable was their competitor.

 

[shafke]

Netflix didn’t have its first piece of original content until 6 years after the service started, and wasn’t until 9 years that they had a total 5 original shows.

So I’m not exactly sure it’s correct to assume after 8 months that Disney+ wont have unique content to have long term appeal.

HBOmax and Peacock both have less that Disney+ when they launched

Netflix did not need original content when it first came out.
When the service first rolled out they had good licensing deals with the content providers.
It was not until the content providers started jacking up the licensing costs that Netflix started to make their own content.

 

[afan]

Netflix did not need original content when it first came out.
When the service first rolled out they had good licensing deals with the content providers.
It was not until the content providers started jacking up the licensing costs that Netflix started to make their own content.

I think people forget Netflix started as a competitor of blockbuster as it was all dvds by mail. They went online when that tech came about and kept their same model. They didn't need original content at the beginning. Bringing a new streaming service now is SO much different than when Netflix started they can't be compared.

 

[The Jackal]

Let’s face it Covid 19 caused a lot of money problems for almost all companies. Disney stock is higher now than it was in March of 2019. A vaccine is on the way and will probably be here before the end of 2020. Disney+ has exceeded their expectations. I would expect by early 2021 things will be better for Disney and a lot of other companies.

 

[imjustafatkid]

I find it hard to believe that Disney is hurting for cash. Based on the recent Splash Mountain and Colin Kaepernick announcements, they clearly have money to throw away.

 

[adam.adbe]

It was reported by Variety that during July 3-5, the app was downloaded 752,451 times globally, and 458,796 times in the U.S. alone. Assuming most of the download are new subscribers, then Disney+ made about $3.2 million in U.S. subscription alone. I don't know about the fee for other countries, but it's highly likely that Disney+ made more than $5 million on that weekend alone. The number of new subscriber from Hamilton could be higher than the number reported because I believe many of those who got Disney+ just for Hamilton already downloaded the app days before July 3.

Download estimates are just estimates. Neither Google or Apple share that data unless they want to. The analysts use data collected from Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) to estimate downloads, but they have no real idea whether an app was downloaded by one person to multiple devices, by a family to many multiples of devices, or singly by unique customers. Since a family of four typically has only one subscription, but may download the D+ app onto anywhere between two to six devices and at least one TV, that's a decent enough margin of error to make extrapolations from those figures worthless. Which for the record, the few times Apple has ever spoken about the estimated download numbers for apps, they generally suggest is the case.

 

[BrianL]

Download estimates are just estimates. Neither Google or Apple share that data unless they want to. The analysts use data collected from Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) to estimate downloads, but they have no real idea whether an app was downloaded by one person to multiple devices, by a family to many multiples of devices, or singly by unique customers. Since a family of four typically has only one subscription, but may download the D+ app onto anywhere between two to six devices and at least one TV, that's a decent enough margin of error to make extrapolations from those figures worthless. Which for the record, the few times Apple has ever spoken about the estimated download numbers for apps, they generally suggest is the case.

Yeah, we can't know exact numbers, but the data indicates that Disney+ has been a huge success in general. I'm sure they are glad to have that revenue stream at the moment and their timing couldn't have been better in hindsight.

 

[disneyseniors]

I find it hard to believe that Disney is hurting for cash. Based on the recent Splash Mountain and Colin Kaepernick announcements, they clearly have money to throw away.

Ummm, I hadn't heard about a Kaepernick announcement. Can you explain what Disney did with him please?

 

[rteetz]

I find it hard to believe that Disney is hurting for cash. Based on the recent Splash Mountain and Colin Kaepernick announcements, they clearly have money to throw away.

They aren’t touching Splash for a while yet. An announcement doesn’t mean its automatically in the budget.

 

[rteetz]

Ummm, I hadn't heard about a Kaepernick announcement. Can you explain what Disney did with him please?

They are creating a Disney+ series with him.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Looking at a lot of the photos from AK yesterday I'd be surprised if they achieved positive contribution yesterday, on opening day.

What's that gonna be like in a week when the vloggers and die hard fans have had their fix?

I still wouldn't be surprised if they temporarily re-shut AK and maybe Epcot due to lack of guests.

Thats assuming they don't just shut everything down again due to the covid rates.

Also, as predicted and completely unsurprising for everyone except those that are sticking their heads in the sand, fatalities in Florida are now increasing at a steady rate in the 7dma. Even die-hards are going to start thinking twice about going as more and more people die in Florida every day. Expect their attendance numbers to continue going down as a result.

 

[shafke]

Download estimates are just estimates. Neither Google or Apple share that data unless they want to. The analysts use data collected from Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) to estimate downloads, but they have no real idea whether an app was downloaded by one person to multiple devices, by a family to many multiples of devices, or singly by unique customers. Since a family of four typically has only one subscription, but may download the D+ app onto anywhere between two to six devices and at least one TV, that's a decent enough margin of error to make extrapolations from those figures worthless. Which for the record, the few times Apple has ever spoken about the estimated download numbers for apps, they generally suggest is the case.

Exactly, So far we have the app downloaded to
- 2 ipads
- Xbox One
- PS 4
- 2 firesticks
This is 1 account with 6 downloads.
I would guess this total also would not include those that had to reinstall due to a device crash/reset or getting a new device.

 

[FlagrantFleur]

Just a fan perspective: its incredibly troubling to me, that all Disney corporate offices are still closed (because they know the dangers of opening), while they open the parks. That really leaves a bad taste in my mouth, and shows where their priorities really are. How they also treated their loyal fanbase: AP holders, DVC, etc. Long story short: the danger of being in a large group, the apparent monetary priorities of the company, and feeling burned doesn't entice me to go to any of the parks anytime soon....maybe ever

 

[rteetz]

Just a fan perspective: its incredibly troubling to me, that all Disney corporate offices are still closed (because they know the dangers of opening), while they open the parks. That really leaves a bad taste in my mouth, and shows where their priorities really are. How they also treated their loyal fanbase: AP holders, DVC, etc. Long story short: the danger of being in a large group, the apparent monetary priorities of the company, and feeling burned doesn't entice me to go to any of the parks anytime soon....maybe ever

Their offices are also in CA which have much stricter rules right now. Disneyland also still closed. Executives aren’t just sitting around though either. They’ve been in the parks.

 

[imjustafatkid]

Ummm, I hadn't heard about a Kaepernick announcement. Can you explain what Disney did with him please?

Washington Post article

ESPN article in case you can't see the Wapo article

 

[OSUZorba]

Let’s face it Covid 19 caused a lot of money problems for almost all companies. Disney stock is higher now than it was in March of 2019. A vaccine is on the way and will probably be here before the end of 2020. Disney+ has exceeded their expectations. I would expect by early 2021 things will be better for Disney and a lot of other companies.

I agree with most of this. But the cash problem won't go away over night as they'll have to send more cash to debt servicing and pay off. Luckily for them, the larger companies are getting it at very good rates. But companies like Royal Caribbean will have a significantly worse cash position for years, even if their business returns to 2019 levels in January.

Look at American Airlines after 9/11, they held on for 10 years, but eventually went into chapter 11 due to the debt load they'd taken on to avoid bankruptcy in the post-9/11 years, even though they had record revenue.

 

[jerry557]

Yep. It's a long term thing. Like I said, it's going to effect the accounting sheets for quite some time into the future. Now the company has more debt to deal with. And it has reduced revenues. That means some of their long term goals and plans may need to be reshaped or reconsidered.

Right now Carnival Cruise Lines is removing 13 ships from its fleet and cutting back orders for new ships. They know even if attendance goes back to normal, it will be a long time to pay off the debt the company is taking on. So it has to re-evaluate their plans and commitments. Now Disney isn't in that dire situation, but Disney is in the same industry and Disney also does have a cruise line as well. And there is no doubt Disney's attendance is going to take a hit for quite awhile even in the most rosy scenarios.