Disney files expansion plans for Caribbean Beach

[Perelandra]

I think it's a near guarantee that it'll be lower demand than some and I think we'll be lucky if it's demand matches that of SSR which is lower than OKW likely due to higher points. Thus it's essentially a certainty that it'll worsen the 7 month window issues. While there are things they could do to affect this reality I don't think it realistic to expect otherwise. I suspect it'll have a nice pool but I don't think a SAB level pool will be enough to make a dent and even a walkway to both EPCOT and DHS likely wouldn't either. Lower points are really the best thing to affect demand given the location but I doubt they'll accept the lower profits to do an OKW style point chart. Personally I'm OK with that.

I might disagree here a little bit. If Disney were to build a SSR quality type resort, and if they were to make a really nice pool, and if they were to make a walkway or better yet a waterway to EPCOT, and if they were to have at least 1 quality table service option, then I think the location would be better than OKW, SSR, and AKV. If they kept the points in line with those, then it wouldn't be too bad a deal, but I guess anything that's not built on the monorail loop will hurt 7 mo window availability on the monorail loop. Those are a lot of ifs.

 

[CraigInPA]

If they changed the Epcot monorail, they could easily add three hotels to it (CBR, BC, and BW). It would require tearing down the service building between the Land and Imaginations West to make the turn towards BC. After that, it's a straight shot to BW, and then a loop over Epcot Resorts Blvd and Buena Vista Drive to CBR. From CBR, it's an easy route over the Epcot cast parking lot and a straight shot between Test Track and Mission Space to meet up with the other end of the loop (or they could continue through the cast parking lot and around the outside of Epcot to meet up with the track where it turns to go into the Epcot station over the visitor parking lot). With a little detour, they could even loop through the DHS parking lot for a stop there.

I see this as about as likely as a water route to Epcot, which means not likely.

 

[AmyKat]

I'm probably in the minority, but I would so much rather have a walking bridge than a waterway or a monorail. The monorail is always broken or down for maintenance. Both boats & monorail involve waiting. Being able to walk to Epcot and/or HS would make this resort higher priority for me than any of the monorail resorts. I don't even need a fancy pool or fancy restaurant. Just give me control over my travel time between resort and park.

 

[Dean]

I might disagree here a little bit. If Disney were to build a SSR quality type resort, and if they were to make a really nice pool, and if they were to make a walkway or better yet a waterway to EPCOT, and if they were to have at least 1 quality table service option, then I think the location would be better than OKW, SSR, and AKV. If they kept the points in line with those, then it wouldn't be too bad a deal, but I guess anything that's not built on the monorail loop will hurt 7 mo window availability on the monorail loop. Those are a lot of ifs.

My view is they'd have to make it well above SSR and the like to not impact the 7 month window because those do now and anything in that vein will simply be additive pressure. Just being above isn't enough and I really can't imagine it'll actually be to the level of SSR and I don't see the DVD has any real need to do so. As long as it's fairly close to SSR and that's about all they have to sell during much of the time, they can use the other resorts to sell it. If they do the rest right, have a really nice pool like SAB or above and have access to one or both parks then it will likely be above. I can't imagine they'd do so, they really don't have any reason to. If they put that kind of expense into it, they'd have to see a dramatic return which means points at SSR preferred level and converting the entire property to DVC as a minimum.

 

[Turn the Page]

So assuming this does turn out to be a DVC resort and it does open in 2019 does anyone know roughly when they would start selling contracts? I don't remember how far in advance they opened up Poly points. DVC was so far out of my mind then I didn't pay attention.

 

[DougEMG]

My view is they'd have to make it well above SSR and the like to not impact the 7 month window because those do now and anything in that vein will simply be additive pressure. Just being above isn't enough and I really can't imagine it'll actually be to the level of SSR and I don't see the DVD has any real need to do so. As long as it's fairly close to SSR and that's about all they have to sell during much of the time, they can use the other resorts to sell it. If they do the rest right, have a really nice pool like SAB or above and have access to one or both parks then it will likely be above. I can't imagine they'd do so, they really don't have any reason to. If they put that kind of expense into it, they'd have to see a dramatic return which means points at SSR preferred level and converting the entire property to DVC as a minimum.

I agree with you. I really doubt that Disney is going to do anything really special with this resort. Is there room for expensive bungalows over the water here? So it is probably going to make the 7 month window for the existing resorts that much worst. Definitely DVC is turning into buy where you want to stay and make sure you book as close to the 11 month window as possible.

 

[Perelandra]

My view is they'd have to make it well above SSR and the like to not impact the 7 month window because those do now and anything in that vein will simply be additive pressure. Just being above isn't enough and I really can't imagine it'll actually be to the level of SSR and I don't see the DVD has any real need to do so. As long as it's fairly close to SSR and that's about all they have to sell during much of the time, they can use the other resorts to sell it. If they do the rest right, have a really nice pool like SAB or above and have access to one or both parks then it will likely be above. I can't imagine they'd do so, they really don't have any reason to. If they put that kind of expense into it, they'd have to see a dramatic return which means points at SSR preferred level and converting the entire property to DVC as a minimum.

Yeah, I actually agree with you that no matter what it's going to stress the 7 month window of the nicest resorts. I was just thinking that given its close proximity to EPCOT especially, there is potential, if done the right way, to be more in demand than SSR, OKW, and AKV.

 

[kniquy]

don't remember how far in advance they opened up Poly points

I guess a good gage would be to watch what happens with CCV sales. You wonder how this will impact poly sales, as well as CCV. I am not sure how close to selling out Poly is, soon they will be selling CCV later this year (my guess) then say a year and a half later they could possible be selling CBR? I wonder if these new resorts will slow down sales of poly

 

[Disn3yVision]

I'm hoping for the same price per point buy in ($170'ish) and lower points per night (okw or even a little lower, but not AKV value low). As a Poly owner that would make me happy since the Poly is the only premium resort I need and I have my 11 month window. I would prefer some newer, lower points per night options to stretch my points for extended stays every now and then.

 

[tjkraz]

The biggest unknown (IMO) is the number of rooms that they plan to build. Assuming it's a DVC, of course.

The Saratoga Springs situation would be entirely different if that resort were 250-350 rooms. SSR does have an audience that loves to stay there. Problem is it's nearly 900 rooms! If the resort were smaller, it wouldn't have weighted down other properties the way it has.

Point charts, design, amenities and transportation will all play a role, of course. Regardless of those details, there will be SOME demand for a CBR DVC. But probably not demand for 500+ villas.

 

[crewmatt]

I tend to think the high point price bungalows would have more pressure on the 7 month window. As 1 night in a bungalow could easily be 2 or 3 normal rooms. But it's still a finite capacity.

I would be happy with either a resort that has a significant draw all by itself (boardwalk, etc) or a low point option that also had a low point buy in option. Either way I do trust dvc to do a decent job fitting it into the scheme. For better or for worse they can't rebalance points between resorts so they kind of have to get it right (or close to). Especially with copper Creek going to be on sale about the same time and I think we all agree that the wilderness Lodge villas fit in well with the existing exchanges.

And it's way less of a 7 month pressure then the offsite resorts. I guess rule 1 of dvc still applies. Buy where you know you want to stay.

 

[Dean]

I tend to think the high point price bungalows would have more pressure on the 7 month window. As 1 night in a bungalow could easily be 2 or 3 normal rooms. But it's still a finite capacity.

I would be happy with either a resort that has a significant draw all by itself (boardwalk, etc) or a low point option that also had a low point buy in option. Either way I do trust dvc to do a decent job fitting it into the scheme. For better or for worse they can't rebalance points between resorts so they kind of have to get it right (or close to). Especially with copper Creek going to be on sale about the same time and I think we all agree that the wilderness Lodge villas fit in well with the existing exchanges.

And it's way less of a 7 month pressure then the offsite resorts. I guess rule 1 of dvc still spies. Buy where you know you want to stay.

Certainly HH and VB are often used at the 7 month window but there are limited points in play there. And any new resort will be additive as was SSR. Any new resort can really only be neutral or negative to the 7 month window as it pertains to the highest demand resorts and room types.

 

[crewmatt]

Certainly HH and VB are often used at the 7 month window but there are limited points in play there. And any new resort will be additive as was SSR. Any new resort can really only be neutral or negative to the 7 month window as it pertains to the highest demand resorts and room types.

Agreed. Unless it becomes itself a high demand resort (low points per night and convenient location). Beach and boardwalk are super high demand during the festivals. Another easy access Epcot resort provided it's themed well with walking access could become very popular.

 

[hakepb]

So assuming this does turn out to be a DVC resort and it does open in 2019 does anyone know roughly when they would start selling contracts? I don't remember how far in advance they opened up Poly points. DVC was so far out of my mind then I didn't pay attention.

I think there are now timeshare laws that don't let sales begin until a resort is about 6 months (or at least less than a year) away from viable occupancy.

 

[Dean]

Agreed. Unless it becomes itself a high demand resort (low points per night and convenient location). Beach and boardwalk are super high demand during the festivals. Another easy access Epcot resort provided it's themed well with walking access could become very popular.

IMO to be positive for the 7 month window it would have to match or exceed the demand of VGF and even then it'd only be minimally helpful which is why I said it could basically only be neutral or negative. Here's why, if they could make it that high of a demand, the majority of owners will be those planning to stay there so there would be few villas available and thus few points that would be used there instead of other high demand resorts. A resort with lower demand blows the system out of the water, a resort with high demand essentially becomes a resort unto itself.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Could the construction be family suite type lodging instead of DVC? Those seem to be pretty successful at the value level.

 

[Dean]

Could the construction be family suite type lodging instead of DVC? Those seem to be pretty successful at the value level.

Obviously no one knows. I'm doubting it. DVC tends to have a propensity to keep things the same as much as possible across resorts. Certainly a more functional studio, sleep six 1BR, 3 BR that are not truly GV (? double lockoff 2 studio & 1BR), 4BR that is a L/O of two 2BR and 2BR lockoff's that are standard & deluxe 1 BR all have promise. All could appeal to additional potential owners. My guess is that the double lockoff 4BR, double L/O 3BR and 2BR L/O with a standard 1 BR are the most cost efficient & sales friendly. One problem with doing a better studio is it would cause rumblings at the other resorts. I'm presuming that anything that is less points or takes up more space (same thing) would be looked at as negative by DVD from a sales/return standpoint.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I just don't see what "deluxe" features this new proposed DVC is going to provide. They would have to include something unique to draw people to buy/stay there. Lazy river type of pool like at BCV? Other than possibly being walking distance to a park, transportation will be busses only.

The points chart would have to be extremely low to lure current owners there. I don't know, I'm just missing the magic in this one.

 

[Dean]

I just don't see what "deluxe" features this new proposed DVC is going to provide. They would have to include something unique to draw people to buy/stay there. Lazy river type of pool like at BCV? Other than possibly being walking distance to a park, transportation will be busses only.

The points chart would have to be extremely low to lure current owners there. I don't know, I'm just missing the magic in this one.

The same was said about SSR and rightfully so and would have been said about OKW were it being built later in the course. To make much difference it'd take more than a nice pool and lazy river IMO. Still, they'll sell it if it does happen.