It will depend on how many points revert to Disney in 2042... but I do suspect they won't hit major changes until 2057.
The original construction was not meant to stand for nearly 100 years. Might not need an entire tear down, but expect major renovations.
Correct. You can already see they have pulled back from investing in Boardwalk --- look at the slide where they replaced the clown with stickers.
Yes, they did major construction for Cake Bake Shop, but that's actually on the outer edge of the property. They can tear down everything except the Cake Bake Shop.
Yes, it would be multi-year. Which is why it make sense to have another
DVC property in the Epcot area ready to go, BEFORE 2042.
Again, at a minimum -- Massive gutting type renovation. Beach Club Villas is a perfect example of a property not built up to the standards of current expectations. It's popular because of location and Stormalong Bay. But imagine how popular it would be if the rooms were the same quality as Riveria, Grand Floridian or Poly.
I actually expect a full tear down, as it's prime real estate for a tower, that could sell a whole lot more units and points.
Conversations are all about balancing inventory with supply and demand. Last conversion was Grand Floridian -- A poorly kept secret is that Grand Floridian couldn't book up their rooms. They were offering big "secret" discounts on priceline. So the conversion was all about pre-selling those rooms that they had trouble booking, and reducing the supply of regular rooms to better meet demand. (They didn't want to openly cut prices to fix the supply/demand issue).
Wilderness Lodge ---> Copper Creek happened for the same reason.
I don't see any more conversions on the horizon, but it's a quick fix if they have an underperforming property.
One possibility I had not considered: Massive renovation/conversion of Boardwalk INN --- Sell it as a DVC properly in the 2030's...
Then in 2042, tear down Boardwalk Villas --- and can replace it with DVC and/or regular hotel.