DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[The Prophet]

It has been almost six years and they still cannot figure D+ out

On a separate note, why in the world would Disney expand to Abu Dhabi?

Did someone not get the memo that there are "Significant human rights issues" in the UAE

https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/united-arab-emirates/

I fear that if I wear my mouse ears upside down, or backwards, and inadvertently insult someone, I may find myself in an uncomfortable situation

 

[peder]

I fear that if I wear my mouse ears upside down, or backwards, and inadvertently insult someone, I may find myself in an uncomfortable situation

It's the exact same concern in China. The simplest answer here is that overseas Disney properties are not primarily targeted at Americans, and Disney moving to the UAE doesn't mean that the UAE is suddenly equivalent to Epcot.

Financially, I would like to know more about how the deal is structured. Does Disney get some flat rate simply for attaching their name? Or is the deal structured more toward a split of gate revenue, etc.?

 

[RivShore]

Financially, I would like to know more about how the deal is structured. Does Disney get some flat rate simply for attaching their name? Or is the deal structured more toward a split of gate revenue, etc.?

I don't recall if they released those details yet but the important thing is that DIS is not putting any of their own money into it.

 

[RivShore]

It has been almost six years and they still cannot figure D+ out

It now has consistently growing profit, growing subs, it's the number two streamer on the planet - all in 6 years. For reference, Netflix has taken nearly 20 years to get where they are today.

Can I seriously ask what more you want?

ETA: I think some of the strategy on what D+ would become was hampered by the lack of full control of Hulu. Now that that is settled they are moving a bit quicker on the buildout.

 

[RivShore]

I just think you can still see a decline in the increase, and it looks like the next peak is going to be lower than the last peak, which is probably a source of some of Wall Street's reluctance to price $DIS higher.

I'm sure that's part of WS's problem. I just don't think you can read that much into the trend line-they are building a new business from the ground up and there will be growing pains in replacing a decades old cash cow business with this youngster of a business, I don't know how you can call lower peaks at this point in time.

 

[clarker99]

I think that current trend line is pretty darn promising, it is almost at the decade ago Op Inc, back before cord cutting was a major thing. I think that tells a great story that linier profits can be fully replaced by streaming.

I just think you can still see a decline in the increase, and it looks like the next peak is going to be lower than the last peak,

The last peak was right after the 20CF deal closed and Disney assumed a whole bunch of licencing $ for 20CF content and the last hurrah of linear while everyone was home during covid. Then they immediately cancelled licensing contracts to keep content in house. Hard to navigate the streaming costs with the 20CF boon.

 

[irlandaise]

I have a sneaking suspicion this is what is going on at SIX as well---it's a downmarket product, and those are getting hammered. I keep hearing the same things from e.g. fast food quarterly calls, discount retailers, etc. The bottom traunches of the income ladder may be pulling back hard.

But that's being masked in part by the upper-middle and above that seems to keep on spending.

Remember during the pandemic when there were references to a "K-shaped recovery"? People who could work from home and/or had strong financial reserves did fine and even saw financial growth, while other people were hit hard and struggled to even stay housed and fed.

FWIW, I just heard that term used again a couple of days ago.

 

[peder]

I'm sure that's part of WS's problem. I just don't think you can read that much into the trend line-they are building a new business from the ground up and there will be growing pains in replacing a decades old cash cow business with this youngster of a business, I don't know how you can call lower peaks at this point in time.

Nobody can call them definitively, but if growth rate is slowing, Wall Street typically assumes it’s because you’re not levered correctly or you’re hitting the limit of your demand curve. The former implies bad management or credit risk, and the latter implies Tapped-out customers.

 

[RivShore]

For what it's worth, a summary of analyst comments on Q3:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4480026-analysts-on-average-are-satisfied-with-disneys-q3-report

Analysts on average are satisfied with Disney's Q3 report​

Aug. 06, 2025 12:31 PM ETThe Walt Disney Company (DIS) StockBy: Ahmed Farhath, SA News Editor
https://seekingalpha.com/news/44800...isfied-with-disneys-q3-report#scroll_comments
Wall Street analysts on Wednesday continued to maintain their bullish rating on Disney (NYSE:DIS) following its third-quarter results and largely saw the report to be positive.

Bank of America (reiterated "buy," PT $140): The research firm called their report "solid." However, it believes the current quarter guidance "may have been below the market’s expectations," which is perhaps what's dragging the stock in the current trading session.
BofA views Disney's key announcements, including the acquisition of NFL Network, the WWE deal, and the ESPN launch date, "to be encouraging."

J.P. Morgan (reiterated "overweight," PT $138): The research firm called their report "strong," with Experiences, DTC, and Sports profitability above its estimates.
In the DTC unit, JPM noted that the operating income increase was driven by higher rates, sub growth, a decrease in programming and production costs, and lower marketing costs, which offset higher tech and distro costs along with a decrease in ad revenue.
They view the company's raised full-year EPS guidance to be "broadly consistent" with investor expectations.

Evercore ISI (reiterated "outperform," PT $140): The research firm called their report "healthy," citing profitability in DTC and theme park businesses.
They noted that DTC net adds across Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ were in line; though ARPU beat at Disney+, it was "softer than expected" at Hulu SVOD; results at the Experiences segment were "highly encouraging."

 

[HokieRaven5]

On the Studio front, most recent quarter did worse with newer releases Lilo & Stitch, Thunderbolts*, Elio than the prior quarter with Snow White, Cap 4

May get a slight boost this weekend from $43M budget Freakier Friday and September has a little to no cost re-release of Hamilton

 

[clarker99]

For what it's worth, a summary of analyst comments on Q3:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4480026-analysts-on-average-are-satisfied-with-disneys-q3-report

Analysts on average are satisfied with Disney's Q3 report​

Aug. 06, 2025 12:31 PM ETThe Walt Disney Company (DIS) StockBy: Ahmed Farhath, SA News Editor
https://seekingalpha.com/news/44800...isfied-with-disneys-q3-report#scroll_comments
Wall Street analysts on Wednesday continued to maintain their bullish rating on Disney (NYSE:DIS) following its third-quarter results and largely saw the report to be positive.

Bank of America (reiterated "buy," PT $140): The research firm called their report "solid." However, it believes the current quarter guidance "may have been below the market’s expectations," which is perhaps what's dragging the stock in the current trading session.
BofA views Disney's key announcements, including the acquisition of NFL Network, the WWE deal, and the ESPN launch date, "to be encouraging."

J.P. Morgan (reiterated "overweight," PT $138): The research firm called their report "strong," with Experiences, DTC, and Sports profitability above its estimates.
In the DTC unit, JPM noted that the operating income increase was driven by higher rates, sub growth, a decrease in programming and production costs, and lower marketing costs, which offset higher tech and distro costs along with a decrease in ad revenue.
They view the company's raised full-year EPS guidance to be "broadly consistent" with investor expectations.

Evercore ISI (reiterated "outperform," PT $140): The research firm called their report "healthy," citing profitability in DTC and theme park businesses.
They noted that DTC net adds across Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ were in line; though ARPU beat at Disney+, it was "softer than expected" at Hulu SVOD; results at the Experiences segment were "highly encouraging."

Herd mentality

 

[Brian Noble]

Can I seriously ask what more you want?

I thought about asking that too, but decided Ignore was easier.

 

[RivShore]

Herd mentality

I guess i was unwittingly part of that herd, at least on the price target - i think we should be in the $140-150 area too.