DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[Obi-J Kenobi]

Why do you say this?

Here's my list in no particular order:

1. Paying $71B for Fox was a bad deal.
2. TWDC reportedly is still $19B - $45B in debt due to Fox deal.
3. Lucasfilm has been a mess under Iger.
4. Chose Bob Chapek as his successor CEO. Bad call.
5. Largest Park expansion involved a business partnership with the CCP to build Shanghai Disney. Instead of making deals with the CCP, maybe TWDC could invest money into domestic parks expansion and maintenance/upkeep?
6. Going all in on streaming, declining Disney Plus numbers, along with a complete hemorrhaging of TV and ESPN viewership and ad money.
7. TWDC is stuck with a Hulu mess and there is a substantial likelihood TWDC will take on more debt when it buys out Comcast.
8. I read a report a couple days ago that TWDC has lost around $900M in the box office the past 2 years. Yikes! I suspect that number will grow because Indy 5 will likely be a box office loss too. Said movie cost almost $300M to make. Add in the marketing and it is unlikely to make a profit.
9. Cut over 7,000 jobs.
10. Stock price is down.
11. RCID is gone and dead.
12. Fostering a culture war. (BTW, I agree with many of TWDC's positions and opinions on behalf of marginalized communities, but culture wars are bad for business. Period.)
13. Ugly CM union negotiations.
14. Paid Fastpass (i.e. Genie Plus).
15. Park and hotel price increases without more perks or bringing back traditional perks. For instance, daily housekeeping at Moderate Resorts or lower. IMO, it is ridiculous to charge $357 / night at POFQ and not provide daily housekeeping and any CEO of a company that owns hotels ought to know that is basic innkeeping 101 level course material.
16. An Axios-Harris poll shows that Disney's reputation has taken a major hit. Although it is just one survey, it isn't a good result.
17. Destroying SPLASH instead of re-theming like TWDC did with PoTC and JC. Here's an idea I think a good CEO can make: keep SPLASH, have some Imagineering CMs change the story for SPLASH (after-all that's why the TWDC pays them), re-theme SPLASH to fit the new narrative, AND build an awesome new TIANA attraction so park fans can have both attractions while helping to expand the parks with more offerings. Not too mention you can sell all sorts of SPLASH re-theme merch and the new TIANA attraction merch. It's called a win-win.
18. Death of DME.
19. For the love all things holy, bite the bullet and bring back the trams for the local folks that are parking in those parking lots and give folks some minimal relief from the Florida heat and humidity. Judas Priest!

 

[wabbott]

Here's my list in no particular order:

1. Paying $71B for Fox was a bad deal.
2. TWDC reportedly is still $19B - $45B in debt due to Fox deal.
3. Lucasfilm has been a mess under Iger.
4. Chose Bob Chapek as his successor CEO. Bad call.
5. Largest Park expansion involved a business partnership with the CCP to build Shanghai Disney. Instead of making deals with the CCP, maybe TWDC could invest money into domestic parks expansion and maintenance/upkeep?
6. Going all in on streaming, declining Disney Plus numbers, along with a complete hemorrhaging of TV and ESPN viewership and ad money.
7. TWDC is stuck with a Hulu mess and there is a substantial likelihood TWDC will take on more debt when it buys out Comcast.
8. I read a report a couple days ago that TWDC has lost around $900M in the box office the past 2 years. Yikes! I suspect that number will grow because Indy 5 will likely be a box office loss too. Said movie cost almost $300M to make. Add in the marketing and it is unlikely to make a profit.
9. Cut over 7,000 jobs.
10. Stock price is down.
11. RCID is gone and dead.
12. Fostering a culture war. (BTW, I agree with many of TWDC's positions and opinions on behalf of marginalized communities, but culture wars are bad for business. Period.)
13. Ugly CM union negotiations.
14. Paid Fastpass (i.e. Genie Plus).
15. Park and hotel price increases without more perks or bringing back traditional perks. For instance, daily housekeeping at Deluxe Resorts. IMO, it is ridiculous to charge $737 / night at POLY and not provide daily housekeeping and any CEO of a company that owns hotels ought to know that is basic innkeeping 101 level course material.
16. An Axios-Harris poll shows that Disney's reputation has taken a major hit. Although it is just one survey, it isn't a good result.
17. Destroying SPLASH instead of re-theming like TWDC did with PoTC and JC. Here's an idea I think a good CEO can make: keep SPLASH, have some Imagineering CMs change the story for SPLASH (after-all that's why the TWDC pays them), re-theme SPLASH to fit the new narrative, AND build an awesome new TIANA attraction so park fans can have both attractions while helping to expand the parks with more offerings. Not too mention you can sell all sorts of SPLASH re-theme merch and the new TIANA attraction merch. It's called a win-win.
18. Death of DME.
19. For the love all things holy, bite the bullet and bring back the trams for the local folks that are parking in those parking lots and give folks some minimal relief from the Florida heat and humidity. Judas Priest!

Very solid arguments, imo.

 

[DL1WDW2]

I agree … excellent summary of problems that are destroying Disney .

 

[New Mouse]

Igers best move was Marvel and the company has recently been running that into the ground as well. Brining Iger back was a desperation move when they actually desperately needed to move on from him.

Cast member satisfaction also fell sharply under Iger and then Iger/Chapek as they got rid of many of their most loyal workers which is showing badly these days. That's a genie you can't put back in.the bottle.

Here's my list in no particular order:

1. Paying $71B for Fox was a bad deal.
2. TWDC reportedly is still $19B - $45B in debt due to Fox deal.
3. Lucasfilm has been a mess under Iger.
4. Chose Bob Chapek as his successor CEO. Bad call.
5. Largest Park expansion involved a business partnership with the CCP to build Shanghai Disney. Instead of making deals with the CCP, maybe TWDC could invest money into domestic parks expansion and maintenance/upkeep?
6. Going all in on streaming, declining Disney Plus numbers, along with a complete hemorrhaging of TV and ESPN viewership and ad money.
7. TWDC is stuck with a Hulu mess and there is a substantial likelihood TWDC will take on more debt when it buys out Comcast.
8. I read a report a couple days ago that TWDC has lost around $900M in the box office the past 2 years. Yikes! I suspect that number will grow because Indy 5 will likely be a box office loss too. Said movie cost almost $300M to make. Add in the marketing and it is unlikely to make a profit.
9. Cut over 7,000 jobs.
10. Stock price is down.
11. RCID is gone and dead.
12. Fostering a culture war. (BTW, I agree with many of TWDC's positions and opinions on behalf of marginalized communities, but culture wars are bad for business. Period.)
13. Ugly CM union negotiations.
14. Paid Fastpass (i.e. Genie Plus).
15. Park and hotel price increases without more perks or bringing back traditional perks. For instance, daily housekeeping at Deluxe Resorts. IMO, it is ridiculous to charge $737 / night at POLY and not provide daily housekeeping and any CEO of a company that owns hotels ought to know that is basic innkeeping 101 level course material.
16. An Axios-Harris poll shows that Disney's reputation has taken a major hit. Although it is just one survey, it isn't a good result.
17. Destroying SPLASH instead of re-theming like TWDC did with PoTC and JC. Here's an idea I think a good CEO can make: keep SPLASH, have some Imagineering CMs change the story for SPLASH (after-all that's why the TWDC pays them), re-theme SPLASH to fit the new narrative, AND build an awesome new TIANA attraction so park fans can have both attractions while helping to expand the parks with more offerings. Not too mention you can sell all sorts of SPLASH re-theme merch and the new TIANA attraction merch. It's called a win-win.
18. Death of DME.
19. For the love all things holy, bite the bullet and bring back the trams for the local folks that are parking in those parking lots and give folks some minimal relief from the Florida heat and humidity. Judas Priest!

 

[RivShore]

Here's my list in no particular order:

1. Paying $71B for Fox was a bad deal.
2. TWDC reportedly is still $19B - $45B in debt due to Fox deal.
3. Lucasfilm has been a mess under Iger.
4. Chose Bob Chapek as his successor CEO. Bad call.
5. Largest Park expansion involved a business partnership with the CCP to build Shanghai Disney. Instead of making deals with the CCP, maybe TWDC could invest money into domestic parks expansion and maintenance/upkeep?
6. Going all in on streaming, declining Disney Plus numbers, along with a complete hemorrhaging of TV and ESPN viewership and ad money.
7. TWDC is stuck with a Hulu mess and there is a substantial likelihood TWDC will take on more debt when it buys out Comcast.
8. I read a report a couple days ago that TWDC has lost around $900M in the box office the past 2 years. Yikes! I suspect that number will grow because Indy 5 will likely be a box office loss too. Said movie cost almost $300M to make. Add in the marketing and it is unlikely to make a profit.
9. Cut over 7,000 jobs.
10. Stock price is down.
11. RCID is gone and dead.
12. Fostering a culture war. (BTW, I agree with many of TWDC's positions and opinions on behalf of marginalized communities, but culture wars are bad for business. Period.)
13. Ugly CM union negotiations.
14. Paid Fastpass (i.e. Genie Plus).
15. Park and hotel price increases without more perks or bringing back traditional perks. For instance, daily housekeeping at Deluxe Resorts. IMO, it is ridiculous to charge $737 / night at POLY and not provide daily housekeeping and any CEO of a company that owns hotels ought to know that is basic innkeeping 101 level course material.
16. An Axios-Harris poll shows that Disney's reputation has taken a major hit. Although it is just one survey, it isn't a good result.
17. Destroying SPLASH instead of re-theming like TWDC did with PoTC and JC. Here's an idea I think a good CEO can make: keep SPLASH, have some Imagineering CMs change the story for SPLASH (after-all that's why the TWDC pays them), re-theme SPLASH to fit the new narrative, AND build an awesome new TIANA attraction so park fans can have both attractions while helping to expand the parks with more offerings. Not too mention you can sell all sorts of SPLASH re-theme merch and the new TIANA attraction merch. It's called a win-win.
18. Death of DME.
19. For the love all things holy, bite the bullet and bring back the trams for the local folks that are parking in those parking lots and give folks some minimal relief from the Florida heat and humidity. Judas Priest!

While I agree with the vast majority of your list I have a few counterpoints/clarifications:

1. Paying $71B for Fox was a bad deal.

A few months ago I came around from not liking it to thinking that this was a buy that had to be done. If they were making the streaming push anyway, this gave them a ton of content. It also kept it out of the hands of a direct competitor, especially with related properties like Avatar and SW (distribution rights). And the headline cost of the deal is way off. Once divestitures and other real dollars are taken into account, it's less than $50B. I have posts here describing all this in detail, if you want to review them.

2. TWDC reportedly is still $19B - $45B in debt due to Fox deal.

We all want to forget Covid, but Covid alone adding something like $15B to debt, not including the lost forever cashflows that would have taken a bite out of the debt back then.

5. Largest Park expansion involved a business partnership with the CCP to build Shanghai Disney.

In hindsight, I fully agree. But I think I have a unique perspective on this - back in the same time period when Dis started discussions with China, i worked for a fortune 100 company with a very long history as a US based company. The C suite at that time saw such amazing opportunities in China and were convinced that the society was slowly opening up and the free market would soon rule, that they decided to put an HQ in China. There was real optimism back then about the rise of capitalism and they felt they would do their shareholders a disservice if they ignored such a large market. Obviously all very wrong and costly assumptions but, at that time, it was not so clear cut.

10. Stock price is down.

Stock performance for all legacy media companies is almost exactly the same since the Covid highs. everyone is dealing with the same problems - cord cutting and a streaming business that is much harder to profit in than anyone thought, initially.

 

[OKW Lover]

Here's my list in no particular order:

1. Paying $71B for Fox was a bad deal.
2. TWDC reportedly is still $19B - $45B in debt due to Fox deal.
3. Lucasfilm has been a mess under Iger.
4. Chose Bob Chapek as his successor CEO. Bad call.
5. Largest Park expansion involved a business partnership with the CCP to build Shanghai Disney. Instead of making deals with the CCP, maybe TWDC could invest money into domestic parks expansion and maintenance/upkeep?
6. Going all in on streaming, declining Disney Plus numbers, along with a complete hemorrhaging of TV and ESPN viewership and ad money.
7. TWDC is stuck with a Hulu mess and there is a substantial likelihood TWDC will take on more debt when it buys out Comcast.
8. I read a report a couple days ago that TWDC has lost around $900M in the box office the past 2 years. Yikes! I suspect that number will grow because Indy 5 will likely be a box office loss too. Said movie cost almost $300M to make. Add in the marketing and it is unlikely to make a profit.
9. Cut over 7,000 jobs.
10. Stock price is down.
11. RCID is gone and dead.
12. Fostering a culture war. (BTW, I agree with many of TWDC's positions and opinions on behalf of marginalized communities, but culture wars are bad for business. Period.)
13. Ugly CM union negotiations.
14. Paid Fastpass (i.e. Genie Plus).
15. Park and hotel price increases without more perks or bringing back traditional perks. For instance, daily housekeeping at Deluxe Resorts. IMO, it is ridiculous to charge $737 / night at POLY and not provide daily housekeeping and any CEO of a company that owns hotels ought to know that is basic innkeeping 101 level course material.
16. An Axios-Harris poll shows that Disney's reputation has taken a major hit. Although it is just one survey, it isn't a good result.
17. Destroying SPLASH instead of re-theming like TWDC did with PoTC and JC. Here's an idea I think a good CEO can make: keep SPLASH, have some Imagineering CMs change the story for SPLASH (after-all that's why the TWDC pays them), re-theme SPLASH to fit the new narrative, AND build an awesome new TIANA attraction so park fans can have both attractions while helping to expand the parks with more offerings. Not too mention you can sell all sorts of SPLASH re-theme merch and the new TIANA attraction merch. It's called a win-win.
18. Death of DME.
19. For the love all things holy, bite the bullet and bring back the trams for the local folks that are parking in those parking lots and give folks some minimal relief from the Florida heat and humidity. Judas Priest!

Thank you. That makes a much better argument than just saying he needs to go.

 

[clarker99]

Igers best move was Marvel and the company has recently been running that into the ground as well.

MCU domestic box office post-covid: $2.6B

Spider-Man: No Way Home	$804,793,477​
Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness	$411,331,607​
Thor: Love and Thunder	$343,256,830​
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$453,829,060​
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	$214,506,909​
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3	$351,071,298​

Total MCU post-covid Box Office: $5.7B Globally

Marvel is well and truly above ground and doing fine.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

MCU domestic box office post-covid: $2.6B

Spider-Man: No Way Home	$804,793,477​
Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness	$411,331,607​
Thor: Love and Thunder	$343,256,830​
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$453,829,060​
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	$214,506,909​
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3	$351,071,298​

Total MCU post-covid Box Office: $5.7B Globally

Marvel is well and truly above ground and doing fine.

Spider-man is a Sony property and Disney just gets a portion of any box office.

Other than that your numbers are way way way off. If you think Ant Man made 200+ million dollars, I have some ocean front property in AZ to sell you. Go to somewhere like deadline.com for a more accurate detailed breakdown of movie financials.

 

[BrianL]

Spider-man is a Sony property and Disney just gets a portion of any box office.

Other than that your numbers are way way way off. If you think Ant Man made 200+ million dollars, I have some ocean front property in AZ to sell you. Go to somewhere like deadline.com for a more accurate detailed breakdown of movie financials.

That's just Domestic. Ant-Man 3 made $476,071,180 at the box-office. That's not all profit of course, but you already know that. The numbers are accurate though.

 

[clarker99]

Spider-man is a Sony property and Disney just gets a portion of any box office.

Other than that your numbers are way way way off. If you think Ant Man made 200+ million dollars, I have some ocean front property in AZ to sell you. Go to somewhere like deadline.com for a more accurate detailed breakdown of movie financials.

Nowhere did I say profit.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Nowhere did I say profit.

"Marvel is well and truly above ground and doing fine."

It doesn't matter what your box office numbers are if you keep spending way too much on production and marketing. What they made on movies like End Game in profit compared to what they are doing now is like night and day.

Maybe The Marvels will save it for the MCU and be a massive hit later this year

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

That's just Domestic. Ant-Man 3 made $476,071,180 at the box-office. That's not all profit of course, but you already know that. The numbers are accurate though.

Gotcha, yeah I misunderstood what was being said. My mistake.

It still seems to me people don't understand box office gross is important, but production / marketing budget is equally important to profitability. Also the number of people that don't understand from box office haul Disney only gets (55% Domestic, 45% International, 25% China). I think people just blindly assume these companies make hundreds of billions of dollars off of even bad movies, and this is simply not the case.

There have only been two really big financial winning movies in 2023 and they were Super Mario and Top Gun Maverick.

 

[BrianL]

Gotcha, yeah I misunderstood what was being said. My mistake.

It still seems to me people don't understand box office gross is important, but production budget is equally important to profitability. Also the number of people that don't understand from box office haul Disney only gets (55% Domestic, 45% International, 25% China). I think people just blindly assume these companies make hundreds of billions of dollars off of even bad movies, and this is simply not the case.

There have only been two really big financial winning movies in 2023 and they were Super Mario and Top Gun Maverick.

Yes, the budget matters a lot, and it varies by region and timeframe how much they get (like they get the biggest share of the first couple of weeks, but less as the movie stays in theaters). It can vary by contract too. Still, the gross is a good indicator of general performance.

 

[wabbott]

Avatar 2 was profitable. Can't quote the exact numbers tho.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Avatar 2 was profitable. Can't quote the exact numbers tho.

I don't believe Avatar is fully owned by Disney. They purchase the rights to distribute it.

Is Avatar 2 made by Disney?

Avatar: The Way of Water is an epic science fiction film written and directed by James Cameron, produced by 20th Century Studios, and distributed by Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures. It's the direct sequel to Avatar and it was released on December 16, 2022

 

[BrianL]

Avatar 2 was profitable. Can't quote the exact numbers tho.

Avatar 2 was immensely profitable. The Production budget is lsited at $250M and maybe add up to $100M for marketing. It made $2,320,250,281 in worldwide gross. Plus some of the production budget can be lumped in with the many sequels as they will use some of the same assets. That means happy times for James Cameron/Disney when it comes to Avatar!

 

[namelessoracle]

Nowhere did I say profit.

Saying "its fine", and then failing to omit that they dropped at least 200 million plus marketing spend (that is estimated at 50 to 100 million) to spend the movie because they made 475 million while ALSO omitting that they only get at best half of that back to them as money is pretty dishonest.

Movie theatres dont show movies for free. The highest ever cut Disney ever got was 65 for Last Jedi. They dont get that anymore. Also overseas they take lesser cuts. Way less.

But going by my low estimate of their marketing spend of 50 million. They lost money on Ant Man.

Thor Love and Thunder cost 250 million, it had a good ad blitz, probably 100 million. 350 is reasonable to assume. It made 760. Half of that is 375 was taken back. It made like 25 million in profit. When the company owes tens of billions. Thats ignoring opportunity costs. Thats ignoring the rumor that they spent way more than 100 million on ad spend on it too.

Disney is also losing money on licensing the properties out to Netflix, another revenue stream cut.

 

[BrianL]

I don't believe Avatar is fully owned by Disney. They purchase the rights to distribute it.

Is Avatar 2 made by Disney?

Avatar: The Way of Water is an epic science fiction film written and directed by James Cameron, produced by 20th Century Studios, and distributed by Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures. It's the direct sequel to Avatar and it was released on December 16, 2022

Yeah, but distribution makes all the Box Office money. Also, I think Avatar was purchased in the Fox buy, though James Cameron may hold some ownership rights. For all intents and purposes though, Disney makes the money.

 

[HokieRaven5]

I don't believe Avatar is fully owned by Disney. They purchase the rights to distribute it.

Is Avatar 2 made by Disney?

Avatar: The Way of Water is an epic science fiction film written and directed by James Cameron, produced by 20th Century Studios, and distributed by Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures. It's the direct sequel to Avatar and it was released on December 16, 2022

Disney owns 20th Century Studios

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Saying "its fine", and then failing to omit that they dropped at least 200 million plus marketing spend (that is estimated at 50 to 100 million) to spend the movie because they made 475 million while ALSO omitting that they only get at best half of that back to them as money is pretty dishonest.

Movie theatres dont show movies for free. The highest ever cut Disney ever got was 65 for Last Jedi. They dont get that anymore. Also overseas they take lesser cuts. Way less.

But going by my low estimate of their marketing spend of 50 million. They lost money on Ant Man.

Thor Love and Thunder cost 250 million, it had a good ad blitz, probably 100 million. 350 is reasonable to assume. It made 760. Half of that is 375 was taken back. It made like 25 million in profit. When the company owes tens of billions. Thats ignoring opportunity costs. Thats ignoring the rumor that they spent way more than 100 million on ad spend on it too.

Disney is also losing money on licensing the properties out to Netflix, another revenue stream cut.

Somebody understands how all this works, and is wise to the tricks being used to confuse investors!