Based on the legs Elemental has, it will likely be less than $100M but that's only theatrical. It will make money via digital and physical sales and streaming revenue. It's very possible, if not likely that it will be profitable, minimally, for Disney.
However to your point of it losing theatrically, it does matter. It is on Disney for not spending $150M-$200M on every original animation. Ruby Gilman just tanked and will likely lose more than Elemental. Disney is already course correcting by announcing sequels Inside Out 2, Frozen 3, Toy Story 5. It was a bad time for Disney/Pixar to release so many original animated films.
I'm not sure what you want. Do you want Disney to only produce sequels?