Did DVC basically just announce they will be open by September?

[Hjs33]

With the announcement that DVC members with an April use year have an extra 6 months to use their 2018 points, they basically are giving them until the end of September to use their points. Otherwise why would they give them this window if they were not going to be able to use them by then?

I also find it interesting that this announcement came a couple of days after Disney and Universal executives met as part of the Florida reopening committee. I’m sure everything is still up in the air and dependent on if the virus gets out of control, but I think they must have set a tentative reopen date that must have been before September. This then gave DVC the the ability to send to update they sent out yesterday.

I think this is good news relative to some that thought they would not even reopen in 2020. Personally, I think they will open the Hotels and Disney Springs in June, with rolling theme park openings starting in July or early August. Anyone else read the announcement the same way or have other opinions on what the announcement means for when they might reopen?

 

[Sandisw]

Actually, I think because nothing was mentioned for banked 2018 Aug UY points that this bodes well for the June 1st opening.

Governor said Disney was ahead of the curve, so the decision coming out has to mean they know the end date

I agree to give that 6 month for April UY, certainly enhances the notion that a summer opening...at least for the DVC resorts...is pretty certain.

 

[cmrdgrs]

I think that Disney is hoping to open the resorts in June.

August UYs were also effected by the closures, but DVC didn't include that UY in this recent point change (which for me was disappointing because I'm an Aug UY) so, that makes me think that they are going to at least open resorts.

The way I look at this is Disney and DVCM can always change things and reevaluate. The announcement may be a clue into Disney's thinking, but for me, it's just that a clue.

 

[The Jackal]

I think that Disney is hoping to open the resorts in June.

August UYs were also effected by the closures, but DVC didn't include that UY in this recent point change (which for me was disappointing because I'm an Aug UY) so, that makes me think that they are going to at least open resorts.

The way I look at this is Disney and DVCM can always change things and reevaluate. The announcement may be a clue into Disney's thinking, but for me, it's just that a clue.

I agree, I think they are still sticking to the June 01, 2020 date. Data from Wisconsin shows that cases did not spike from Election Day, like everyone predicted it would. Other studies show a much higher infection rate. We will see shortly what happens in Georgia And the other states that have entered phase 1 of the recovery. DVC has put a lot of time into this decision and may still make adjustments on how long the closure goes. There is no decision they could have made that made 100% of the membership happy. Most likely some members vacations will be affected for several years from this virus. We will be able to Happiest Place on Earth soon, let’s remember that.

 

[ypv]

I also think that the announcement means that they probably have a plan to reopen. I would guess they will open no sooner than June 1, but before Labor Day. I don't know enough to speculate on an actual date or the method of opening (limited parks, restricted capacity etc.). I certainly expect at least some modifications.

In part due to my job, I have been following the COVID-19 event fairly closely. While we are learning more as time goes on, there is still much to learn. We do know that this virus is dangerous, and the consequences of letting it spread unchecked would be severe. If you choose to visit WDW this summer (or anywhere else for that matter), please be careful.

 

[Dr. Jones]

No way WDW opens this summer... in perspective if MLB can open a single ballpark, which typically is 40,000 or more people, until the very least August 1, there's NO way WDW will take the chance of 1 PERSON getting ill, at the very worst pass away. I do think, maybe September could be a possibility.

 

[gharter]

Actually, I think because nothing was mentioned for banked 2018 Aug UY points that this bodes well for the June 1st opening.

Governor said Disney was ahead of the curve, so the decision coming out has to mean they know the end date

I agree to give that 6 month for April UY, certainly enhances the notion that a summer opening...at least for the DVC resorts...is pretty certain.

I would agree that Disney and Universal have a plan of when and how to open the parks. It sounds like the Governor is in favor of whatever they have planned.
Given what they did for only certain UYs, it makes sense that they will be open before more UYs fall into this problem.

 

[sethschroeder]

No way WDW opens this summer... in perspective if MLB can open a single ballpark, which typically is 40,000 or more people, until the very least August 1, there's NO way WDW will take the chance of 1 PERSON getting ill, at the very worst pass away. I do think, maybe September could be a possibility.

I think numbers matter.

Could Disney bring back a bare bones CMs, remove parades, rotate parks that are open, and limit parks to 10% of capacity and still come out in better shape than not opening? Disney doesn't need to turn a profit they just need to be losing less money then they are today.

It would be a huge win as well if they could hire CMs even part time like MK CMs working 3-4 days a week.

Picturing something like DVC and Deluxe reopening, zero park hopping, and a dedicated park each day for the resort. Possibly even a morning and afternoon time slot for guests to enjoy the parks.

DVC+Deluxe = 10,382 total rooms
Roughly = 20,000 to 40,000 total guests onsite
5k-10k guests in each park
2 parks with morning/afternoon split = 2.5k-5k guests per time period

In comparison WDW on average gets 250k guests daily so this would be a 8%-16% total capacity for all 4 parks being open at the same time.

Who knows though I personally am doubtful they would reopen but the latest announcement seems like they have a date in mind.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

It's borderline humorous how many people don't seem to grasp the business problem here. We're not opening Space Mountain. We're opening 25+ resort hotels and 4 main gate theme parks with 2 minor gate waterparks with a supporting and trained staff of 55,000+.

Anybody that believes the parks will still be closed by December or even September obviously cannot grasp the scope of the monetary and personnel problems growing exponentially every single day it all stays shut down.

I know everybody here thinks it's pixie dust and Mickeys, but if WDW and DL stay closed until even September, there is a very high likelihood they will be broke. The CA and FL theme parks are the glue that holds the whole thing together, and more importantly, the revenue stream that keeps everything else financed with cash and running. Discussion board people tend to see WDW as a cash cow, and while it is, it is also the blood that runs Disney, and Disney is hemorrhaging right now. BAD. And so is the whole greater Orlando economy and citizenry that supports those parks. Which brings me to another point. A lot of "Disney people" have probably already been forced to make other arrangements for employment. These people have to eat, and many of them were barely making enough to eat as it was. Those that do not return not only leave vacated positions, they leave vacated positions with no one properly trained to replace them. You can't just throw somebody at SM and expect them to run it and not only that, run it in the "Disney way."

This is a BIG deal, folks. A very big deal. If these parks don't open by July, things are going to go bleak in a hurry, and they better be open by June or heads are going to roll and Disney is going to start cutting and selling off pieces that nobody ever expected. This is a big time business folks, and it runs a lot of cash. Both ways. You can forget what the so-called Wall Street analysts say. If they don't get those parks open, and soon, they may never come back. Don't believe it can happen? You'd better hope they open sooner rather than later then.

 

[dismedvc]

if WDW and DL stay closed until even September, there is a very high likelihood they will be broke. The CA and FL theme parks are the glue that holds the whole thing together, and more importantly, the revenue stream that keeps everything else financed with cash and running.

From the most recent 10K filed with the SEC for TWDC. I will let you draw your own conclusions with regard to the quote above.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Looks pretty supportive to me.

 

[itutorfortravel]

I think numbers matter.

Could Disney bring back a bare bones CMs, remove parades, rotate parks that are open, and limit parks to 10% of capacity and still come out in better shape than not opening? Disney doesn't need to turn a profit they just need to be losing less money then they are today.

It would be a huge win as well if they could hire CMs even part time like MK CMs working 3-4 days a week.

Picturing something like DVC and Deluxe reopening, zero park hopping, and a dedicated park each day for the resort. Possibly even a morning and afternoon time slot for guests to enjoy the parks.

DVC+Deluxe = 10,382 total rooms
Roughly = 20,000 to 40,000 total guests onsite
5k-10k guests in each park
2 parks with morning/afternoon split = 2.5k-5k guests per time period

In comparison WDW on average gets 250k guests daily so this would be a 8%-16% total capacity for all 4 parks being open at the same time.

Who knows though I personally am doubtful they would reopen but the latest announcement seems like they have a date in mind.

I like your thinking!

 

[starry_solo]

I think the resorts will open before the parks.
Unemployment is high in FL, there aren't a lot of jobs for furloughed CMs to go to and FL has only paid out 8% of claims ( at least as of this morning).

Resorts open first with park CMs getting trained again...getting back up to speed with a gradual reopening of each of the parks.

Local DVCers would use up their expiring points for the staycation...

 

[Sammie]

According to info shared on the parks board discussion, Shanghai have been testing processes and training their CMs for 6 weeks so far and still do not have a park opening date. I am not sure WDW even if they announce this week they are opening June 1, they have enough time. I am thinking more like trying to be open for July 4th? The thing is when they
open they have to get it right or really be in serious trouble. They can't be the next infected cruise ship on land.
Here is a great article and breakdown of how they make their money.
https://www.investopedia.com/how-disney-makes-money-4799164

 

[TisBit]

According to info shared on the parks board discussion, Shanghai have been testing processes and training their CMs for 6 weeks so far and still do not have a park opening date. I am not sure WDW even if they announce this week they are opening June 1, they have enough time. I am thinking more like trying to be open for July 4th? The thing is when they
open they have to get it right or really be in serious trouble. They can't be the next infected cruise ship on land.
Here is a great article and breakdown of how they make their money.
https://www.investopedia.com/how-disney-makes-money-4799164

I am not sure if there are other reasons for Shanghai not to have opened, has the Government supported it reopening, that is a huge factor. Culturally, they are more likely to not allow it until they feel that the training is top notch and lots of people sign off on the plan.

As for the US, I think WDW will open before DL and possibly considerably sooner. The Governors of those states (even Anaheim's city leadership) have two completely different outlooks. Cali doesn't seem to want to relax any restrictions anytime soon. As for WDW, I highly doubt they will open anywhere near a holiday. I think that is why June 1st is a good date, it is after Memorial Day and before July 4th. All indications seem to point to a large portion of the US population is raring to go and are not going to change plans moving forward. The media presents a lot of information and opinions, but most people are seem to be in a wait and see. First, things need to open up, then people will decide their comfort levels with going. Employers will also come into play, my wife currently has a policy for work that if you travel you must quarantine for 14 d

 

[glamdring269]

It would be a huge win as well if they could hire CMs even part time like MK CMs working 3-4 days a week.

Does anyone know how a CM is typically paid? I assume they receive an hourly wage. If so then with the current CARES act implementation I doubt WDW would be able to do a partial reopen with rotating staff. They would need to ensure that those who do work are going to make more than they would under the current support act which provides $600/wk in federal unemployment support in addition to whatever the state offers. This act is valid through July (as of now).

I'm not really trying to counter your idea, just pointing out that if they do go that route they would likely need to bring in fewer CMs and pay them full time.

This is actually part of a broader problem that will impact companies who rely on folks that I assume do not make a ton of money. How do you get them to come in on a limited basis for training, prep, etc. when that limited basis will probably lead to a pay cut for the employee?

 

[sethschroeder]

Does anyone know how a CM is typically paid? I assume they receive an hourly wage. If so then with the current CARES act implementation I doubt WDW would be able to do a partial reopen with rotating staff. They would need to ensure that those who do work are going to make more than they would under the current support act which provides $600/wk in federal unemployment support in addition to whatever the state offers. This act is valid through July (as of now).

I'm not really trying to counter your idea, just pointing out that if they do go that route they would likely need to bring in fewer CMs and pay them full time.

This is actually part of a broader problem that will impact companies who rely on folks that I assume do not make a ton of money. How do you get them to come in on a limited basis for training, prep, etc. when that limited basis will probably lead to a pay cut for the employee?

Except that provision is only until the end of July then goes away. You can recieve unemployment if working part time. You also can bring back a bare bones crew who is more senior to the parks when everything reopens.

The partial employment person would also recieve the full $600/week on top of their partial employment per guidelines.

Here is a short article on it.
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/dol-clarifies-cares-act-unemployment-13843/
Someone from Florida might have more information as well.

 

[glamdring269]

Except that provision is only until the end of July then goes away. You can recieve unemployment if working part time. You also can bring back a bare bones crew who is more senior to the parks when everything reopens.

The partial employment person would also recieve the full $600/week on top of their partial employment per guidelines.

Here is a short article on it.
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/dol-clarifies-cares-act-unemployment-13843/
Someone from Florida might have more information as well.

Yes, I understand the end of July aspect. Thanks for sharing this article. It does appear that it applies to Florida (and others),but not Tennessee, which would help explain why we aren’t considering this direction where I work.

Does anyone know how WDW dealt with their CMs? We’re they furloughed or laid off entirely? The article basically states that STC is in lieu of furloughs but perhaps that would be irrelevant if they bring them back on part time.

 

[sethschroeder]

Yes, I understand the end of July aspect. Thanks for sharing this article. It does appear that it applies to Florida (and others),but not Tennessee, which would help explain why we aren’t considering this direction where I work.

Does anyone know how WDW dealt with their CMs? We’re they furloughed or laid off entirely? The article basically states that STC is in lieu of furloughs but perhaps that would be irrelevant if they bring them back on part time.

The hard part is there is a bunch of different "statuses" so while the article outlines it possibly none of it applies to Disney CMs I am partly guessing based on information I could find and what the bill said.

As far as CMs go from what I understand they furloughed most of them and anyone relevant to the parks. I could be wrong though as I didn't look too deeply in to it.

All the news articles I have read are talking about furloughed employees nothing really about people being laid off.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

It's borderline humorous how many people don't seem to grasp the business problem here. We're not opening Space Mountain. We're opening 25+ resort hotels and 4 main gate theme parks with 2 minor gate waterparks with a supporting and trained staff of 55,000+.

Anybody that believes the parks will still be closed by December or even September obviously cannot grasp the scope of the monetary and personnel problems growing exponentially every single day it all stays shut down.

I know everybody here thinks it's pixie dust and Mickeys, but if WDW and DL stay closed until even September, there is a very high likelihood they will be broke. The CA and FL theme parks are the glue that holds the whole thing together, and more importantly, the revenue stream that keeps everything else financed with cash and running. Discussion board people tend to see WDW as a cash cow, and while it is, it is also the blood that runs Disney, and Disney is hemorrhaging right now. BAD. And so is the whole greater Orlando economy and citizenry that supports those parks. Which brings me to another point. A lot of "Disney people" have probably already been forced to make other arrangements for employment. These people have to eat, and many of them were barely making enough to eat as it was. Those that do not return not only leave vacated positions, they leave vacated positions with no one properly trained to replace them. You can't just throw somebody at SM and expect them to run it and not only that, run it in the "Disney way."

This is a BIG deal, folks. A very big deal. If these parks don't open by July, things are going to go bleak in a hurry, and they better be open by June or heads are going to roll and Disney is going to start cutting and selling off pieces that nobody ever expected. This is a big time business folks, and it runs a lot of cash. Both ways. You can forget what the so-called Wall Street analysts say. If they don't get those parks open, and soon, they may never come back. Don't believe it can happen? You'd better hope they open sooner rather than later then.

Well said. Most people seem to think money just grows on trees, probably because our federal government acts that way. I agree Disney cannot survive without opening this summer.