Debate: Who should Kerry pick as his running mate?

[jennyanydots]

The Associated Press report:

Poll: Edwards favored as Kerry VP choice





The Associated Press

Sen. John Edwards, the smooth-talking populist who emerged from the nominating campaign as John Kerry's chief rival, is favored among registered voters to be the Democratic vice presidential candidate, according to an Associated Press poll. But his name on the ticket does not automatically boost Democratic prospects.

A Kerry-Edwards pairing ties with the GOP tandem of President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, which is no better than Kerry's current showing in head-to-head matchups against Bush, according to the AP poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

Kerry has made overtures to at least one potential candidate, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who rejected the offer to forge a bipartisan alliance against Bush, The Associated Press reported Friday. Two officials familiar with the conversations said Kerry stopped short of formally offering McCain the job, sparing the Massachusetts senator an outright rejection that would make his eventual running mate look like a second choice.

A hypothetical Kerry-McCain ticket had a 14-point advantage over Bush-Cheney among registered voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, according to a recent CBS News poll.

Democratic strategists cautioned against reading too much into any poll before Kerry selects a running mate.

"Polling information on potential running mates is soft and unreliable because it's all about name identification and hypothetical," said Doug Sosnik, a top adviser in the Clinton White House. "Eventually, we'll have a campaign when people will get to know them. Right now, it's just mush."

The AP poll showed that more than one-third of registered voters -- 36 percent -- said they would most like to see Kerry choose Edwards.

Among Democrats surveyed, Edwards fared even better: 43 percent preferred him over three other Democrats.

The first-term senator from North Carolina remained in the primaries longer than any other major candidate and won over thousands of Democratic voters with the positive tone of his campaign.

The poll showed that 19 percent of registered voters wanted Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, the longtime Democratic leader who is retiring from the House. Eighteen percent chose retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, a political newcomer from Arkansas, and 4 percent picked Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa, a relative unknown on the national scene.

About 23 percent said they were not sure or they offered another name.

When Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York was added to the mix, one-fourth of the respondents supported her while Edwards' backing remained strong at 34 percent. She picked up one-half of the black vote, drawing support from Gephardt, Vilsack and the "not sure" category.

She repeatedly has ruled out accepting the vice presidential nomination, and Kerry has not offered it.

Among just Democrats, Gephardt got 19 percent, Clark 18 percent and Vilsack 4 percent.

None of the potential candidates made much of a difference in a hypothetical matchup against the White House team.

Like the Kerry-Edwards tandem, a Kerry-Gephardt ticket tied Bush-Cheney while pairing Kerry with Vilsack or Clark resulted in a slight lead for Bush-Cheney.

"What this poll shows is that since Edwards ran a very, very competitive Democratic primary and stayed in until the bitter end and by all accounts acquitted himself well, he is favored by Democratic and all American voters," said Doug Schoen, a pollster for Clinton.

Schoen and other political experts say there is no way to measure the boost or drag a running mate will bring to the ticket.

Nobody predicted that Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut would give Democrat Al Gore the lift he did in 2000 nor did anyone foresee the problems Republican Dan Quayle caused then-Vice President George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Whatever the impact, it is usually short-lived.

"Polling should be a factor on the final selection of a vice president, but I wouldn't put it on the top four or five factors," Sosnik said.

Presidential nominees are usually more interested in whether candidates are qualified to serve as president, whether there are any political problems in their background and whether the relationship would have some chemistry and trust, Sosnik said.

Schoen said Edwards benefits from being the last major candidate standing against Kerry in the Democratic race. Gephardt bowed out after a dismal fourth-place showing in Iowa's kickoff caucuses. Clark lasted longer but criticized Kerry along the way. Edwards jabbed at the Democratic front-runner but never made personal.

The AP-Ipsos poll of 788 registered voters was conducted Monday to Wednesday. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For the responses of subgroups, it was slightly larger: 5 percentage points for Democrats, 5.5 percentage points for Republicans.

In hypothetical matchups against the GOP ticket:

* Kerry-Edwards had 47 percent to 44 percent for Bush-Cheney.

* Bush-Cheney had 47 percent to 45 percent for Kerry-Gephardt.

* Bush-Cheney had 47 percent to 43 percent for Kerry-Vilsack and for Kerry-Clark.

Kerry is expected to announce his choice next month.

Among others mentioned as potential Kerry running mates are Sens. Bob Graham of Florida and Evan Bayh of Indiana; former Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska; and Govs. Janet Napolitano of Arizona, Mark Warner of Virginia, Bill Richardson of New Mexico and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania.

Democrats say there may be a dark horse under consideration, perhaps a Republican other than McCain. Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., has been mentioned as a potential pick.

As for the Republican ticket, 28 percent of GOP voters surveyed thought Bush should pick someone other than Vice President Dick Cheney as his running mate.

I think John Edwards would make an excellent choice.

 

[The Mystery Machine]

Hilary Clinton but she won't do it.

 

[Robinrs]

I think Edwards would be the best choice.

 

[KarenC]

I like Clark, but I would be happy with Edwards too. I like them for different reasons.

I really hope he doesn't pick Dick Gephardt.

 

[N.Bailey]

I think John Edwards would be the best choice. Frankly, if Edwards was running, I more than likely would have voted for him. It would have been my 1st time ever voting democrat.

 

[EltonJohn]

Originally posted by Robinrs
I think Edwards would be the best choice.

ITA. I'd pick a Southerner over anybody else.

 

[GeorgeG]

Jane Fonda comes to mind as fitting the bill...

(guess you know who I'm not voting for...)

 

[peachgirl]

I hope he picks Edwards. He would've been my 1st choice for President.

Just don't pick someone boring and old!!!

 

[MMouse]

Originally posted by GeorgeG
Jane Fonda comes to mind as fitting the bill...

(guess you know who I'm not voting for...)

 

[jennyanydots]

MMouse, that's just perfect! Have you seen the MoveOn ads yet?

 

[MMouse]

Originally posted by jennyanydots
MMouse, that's just perfect! Have you seen the MoveOn ads yet?

Those are great. Oh, I didn't say earlier but I think Edwards would make an excellent choice.

 

[my3kids]

John Edwards or Mark Warner of VA.

 

[richiebaseball]

Governor Bill Richardson.

That being said, IMHO Sen. Edwards will probably be his choice. Although the fact that he could barely carry his own state in the primary has to be of concern. I don't think he would really be of any help in the south. Although the mob, er I mean union may push for Rep. Gephardt they can't pick him. He served in the National Guard you know. They can't pick Howard Dean. He received a military deferment after all. Who's left? Senator Bob Graham? If this were a few years ago I could see it. But Senator Graham today is not the Senator Graham of a few years ago. Senator Evan Bayh? Hmmm, a longshot. He may be a little too conservative. Wesley Clark? A political neophyte. I see a cabinet position for him. Hey, it worked for Al Haig. Same cloth there.

IMO who should he pick? Governor Bill Richardson. Good foreign policy experience. Heck, even the Bush administration liked what he did in North Korea. Former UN ambassador. He's hispanic to boot. That could help in Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida. He has said he doesn't want the job. Can't say as I blame him.

Who will he pick? Probably Edwards.

Since the article mentioned President Bush replacing Cheney it made me wonder something. With this impossible dream that some had of a Kerry/McCain ticket, would a Bush/McCain ticket be any less impossible?

Just one man's opinion.

Richard

 

[CarolA]

Me

 

[ThreeCircles]

Well, tell us about yourself CarolA.

I'm not really sure that I have a specific suggestion but I am excited to find out.

 

[RobinMarie]

I think with Kerry's New England roots he needs to pick someone from another part of the country. I liked Edwards from the start but was concerned what the right would think about his lack of experience in politics. But I'm thinking more and more they might balance each other well. Edwards seems to be able to captivate people and is a dynamic personality. His approach appears genuine to me, perhaps because he isn't politics as usual.

I'd love it if Hillary ran, but would hate for her to be compared to GFerraro. Don't think it's wise for the Dems to put NY and MA on the ticket right now.

 

[cati]

dont know,,,

 

[DawnCt1]

Howard Dean, He needs someone who looks at least like they are alive! If he wants to win? Any Republican. If he wants to show his true colors? Ralph Nadar.

 

[TinkBoo&ElliesMum]

Edwards will do.

While I love Hillary I don't think she's the right choice. McCain would have been a dream choice - too bad he's not interested. I like Clark but I don't think he's ready for it. Gephardt - ugh, no. Howard Dean is too far to the left (which is hard for someone like me to say!) So, Edwards will do.

 

[mamajoan]

I say.. go back and ask MCCAIN AGAIN>>>AND AGAIN>>>>