Dear recession:

[dvcgirl]

Again if the average 401(k) is down 20%, how can we only be down 12-15%? In a word, dollar cost averaging.

Live it, Learn it, Love it!

LOL!! Oh, you're killing me here......

Yeah, um, I'm familiar with the concept. I've been using dollar cost averaging since I was 22 years old.

How did you dollar cost average your way out of the 27% point drop in the month of October?

Just a thought....in the future, if you're going to start a thread about "how the recession isn't affecting you", don't post details about the types of funds that you're invested in.

Okay, I'm done asking what fund you're in....clearly you're not going to answer the question.

Move on, nothing to see here......

 

[dvcgirl]

This manic market really has me worried - 500-1000 point spreads are not good!

Crazy isn't it.....and today's big up day was on very low volume. We need to see some very big up days, *or* some very big down days on *big* volume to figure out which way we're going in the short term.

I think a lot of it had to do with the yen weakening against the dollar. We'll have to see if that trend continues.

I don't think we're finished yet to the downside....we'll test those lows again. Too much hedge fund liquidation is yet to unfold.

 

[sahd2one]

This manic market really has me worried - 500-1000 point spreads are not good!

It has me excited! I know I can buy more for less! Yep, I guess I am affected by the recession after all. In a GOOD WAY! Not being tied to the DOW in our funds helps too! Through DCA, you can buy more for less and not be down as much as the market or even an individual fund!

Woo Hooooooooooooooooooooooooo!



I know there were more millionaires made during the Great Depression than in any other time in our history. Having rolling CDs means access to liquid cash in short order. Our current economy has the same indicators that heralded the depression of the 1930’s. Not enough cash savings, too much corporate and personal credit debt, banks failing and having to be bailed out and the mortgage / real estate crash. I happen to see silver linings and will not and am not negatively affected by this "Crisis".

 

[dvcgirl]

It has me excited! I know I can buy more for less! Yep, I guess I am affected by the recession after all. In a GOOD WAY! Not being tied to the DOW in our funds helps too! Through DCA, you can buy more for less and not be down as much as the market or even an individual fund!

Oh, you are amusing sahd2one. Don't worry, the markets will come back....it'll just take a little time . Until then, just stick your fingers in your ears and go "la la la la....this isn't happening.....la la la la".

Heh.

 

[madge]

My local community paper has an article today regarding the perceived recession and the lack of it in my neck of the woods.

Housing sales dropped 4% in Sept 2008 from Sept 2007, but the mean price per house sold actually increased 11% year to year. Wow!! New housing permits are also on a higher pace than 2007.

Business construction is at the highest rate ever according to our chamber president, with several businesses moving to new locations as sales are up and they need more space.

The peers at the company I work for consider the market I cover "recession proof" as most jobs are government, farming or medical related. Between the UK Hospital system, Central Baptist, and St joseph, there are 1.4 billion dollars in construction going on in the Bluegrass region right now. We have the most efficient Toyota plant on earth, they are moving people from other plants here to prevent layoffs. My sales numbers are growing weekly right now, it was VERY slow in the summer, but the growth the past 4-6 weeks is remarkable. A new tech school had ground broken this week.

Keeneland (horse racing) was 136 people short of breaking attendance records in the fall meet out of 200,000+ in attendance, although betting was down 7% year to year. The fall horse sale was well below last years numbers.

There continue to be weak signs that something may be in the cards here, but this is nothing like the media wants to portray right now.

it's a similar scenario down the road in my part of the state as well. I don't have specifics, but there is a lot of construction going on in anticipation of the however many jobs coming in 2010 when the Human Resource Center of Excellence opens at Ft. Knox. There have been a few business closings and some factory layoffs, but by all accounts, I think things are in pretty good shape here. (Hardin County)

PS. When I mean in good shape, I mean the local economy .. I haven't looked at our TSP statements in a while. I don't want to know... in my head, I've imagined it to be pretty bad, and that's enough for me. LOL.

 

[kydisneyfans]

I am playing the timing game a little right now. When the Dow had a big drop a few Fridays ago, I moved quite a bit of money into the market as I thought we were at a bottom. The next day was a huge increase. Once the 12% 1 day increase hit, the money got pulled back to a guaranteed fund. I did the same thing this past weekend, and will pull the profit again tonight. I have recovered most of my loss with this method. This is dangerous for someone not knowing what they are doing though.

 

[dvcgirl]

I am playing the timing game a little right now. When the Dow had a big drop a few Fridays ago, I moved quite a bit of money into the market as I thought we were at a bottom. The next day was a huge increase. Once the 12% 1 day increase hit, the money got pulled back to a guaranteed fund. I did the same thing this past weekend, and will pull the profit again tonight. I have recovered most of my loss with this method. This is dangerous for someone not knowing what they are doing though.

This is a very dangerous game for someone who *does* know what they're doing. That's called speculating....not investing. This market is acting completely irrationally at this point....be careful you don't get your head handed to you playing games like that....

 

[Kathi OD]

still waiting on the names of funds that have only seen a 12% decrease this year. personally, i don't think they exist.

 

[C.Ann]

still waiting on the names of funds that have only seen a 12% decrease this year. personally, i don't think they exist.

--------------------

Say it's not so!!!

That could really burst ones bubble!!

 

[Kathi OD]

--------------------

Say it's not so!!!

That could really burst ones bubble!!

So you think it is ok to put away my pin?

 

[C.Ann]

So you think it is ok to put away my pin?

---------------------------

 

[sahd2one]

I am playing the timing game a little right now. When the Dow had a big drop a few Fridays ago, I moved quite a bit of money into the market as I thought we were at a bottom. The next day was a huge increase. Once the 12% 1 day increase hit, the money got pulled back to a guaranteed fund. I did the same thing this past weekend, and will pull the profit again tonight. I have recovered most of my loss with this method. This is dangerous for someone not knowing what they are doing though.

You have to be so careful doing that as you could get burned by speculating. Me, I am a long term investor. You need to be able to handle those big drops or be diversified in a way that you do not see the drops that the market sees, IMHO. You also have to just ignore those who wrote they were "leaving this thread" yet cannot seem to be at all truthful.

More good news tonight as the house down the street sold in about 45 days which just bucks the trend!!!

 

[wall*e2008]

LOL!! Oh, you're killing me here......

Yeah, um, I'm familiar with the concept. I've been using dollar cost averaging since I was 22 years old.

How did you dollar cost average your way out of the 27% point drop in the month of October?

Just a thought....in the future, if you're going to start a thread about "how the recession isn't affecting you", don't post details about the types of funds that you're invested in.

Okay, I'm done asking what fund you're in....clearly you're not going to answer the question.

Move on, nothing to see here......

I think what the OP is saying is that he has only lost 12-15% of the money he put in. He is not including the gains that he got and then what he lost of those gains.

He put in $100. His investment went up to $125 and then down to $88. He lost 12% of the money he put in. If he goes by his high then he lost 30%.

 

[dvcgirl]

I think what the OP is saying is that he has only lost 12-15% of the money he put in. He is not including the gains that he got and then what he lost of those gains.

He put in $100. His investment went up to $125 and then down to $88. He lost 12% of the money he put in. If he goes by his high then he lost 30%.

I understand how dollar cost averaging works, and I read the OP's story. I also get the idea that "you haven't lost anything is you don't sell". But you really have.....you've lost years of gains in the markets on whatever you had in at the time. It will take the market years to get back to that 14,100 level.

It doesn't matter though.

This is the internet and some folks like to pretend that they're something or someone that they aren't.

 

[sahd2one]

I think what the OP is saying is that he has only lost 12-15% of the money he put in. He is not including the gains that he got and then what he lost of those gains.

He put in $100. His investment went up to $125 and then down to $88. He lost 12% of the money he put in. If he goes by his high then he lost 30%.

Gosh you are pretty smart! Much smarter than some people who claim to be the end all be all of the economy. Yet this is the internet and people can claim all they are "smarter" than others. I only post what has worked for me all my adult life.

History is on my side. The last bust in 2002 was met with robust gains in only six years. I have nothing but time on my side and now have more shares then I did "yesterday". Yes I will not see the gains that others will see, but I am an investor and not a speculator. I don't let the doom and gloom scenarios waver my from my positions. I am not affected in a negative way by this "Crisis".

I also don't plan to really retire anyway since those who live the longest really never stop working. I don't think about the "what if" scenarios either. If I did, I would never leave the house since most accidents occur within 5 miles of home.

 

[mariolatry]

More good news tonight as the house down the street sold in about 45 days which just bucks the trend!!!

Our house has been on the market for 10 months and hasn't sold, despite a $40k drop in selling price (below what we bought it for). There are 22 foreclosures in a five mile radius around that area. We've decided to go for renting it out and suck up the loss.

How wonderful for your neighbors, though.

 

[Kathi OD]

Mariolatry, are those your children? They are absolutely adorable!!

 

[mariolatry]

Mariolatry, are those your children? They are absolutely adorable!!

Bless your heart, thank you. They look just like my husband. Thank goodness he's cute.

 

[arminnie]

still waiting on the names of funds that have only seen a 12% decrease this year. personally, i don't think they exist.

Ihave a personal account managed by me - not a public fund for others. I sold off a lot of google and Visa when they were higher this year so that account does show a substantial profit. I didn't reinvest so I do show a very nice return for that account.

 

[sahd2one]

Ihave a personal account managed by me - not a public fund for others. I sold off a lot of google and Visa when they were higher this year so that account does show a substantial profit. I didn't reinvest so I do show a very nice return for that account.

Shhhh...

Don't let anyone know that it is possible to manage your own targeted retirement account!